3 ms·
Seems like a lot of CEOs overestimated the speed of AI, but also it is inevitable.
by vladmk 3mo ago
Seems like a lot of CEOs overestimated the speed of AI, but also it is inevitable.
- goldenarm 3mo agoIs AGI really inevitable ? Claiming something is inevitable is a great way to disarm critical thinking.
- faeyanpiraat 3mo agoWell, if progress stops it can be avoided..
- dylan604 3mo agoBut that's part of the inevitable isn't it? You'll never get everyone to stop. Someone will always do it because they feel it being inevitable that if they don't do it someone else will so might as well do it.
- goldenarm 3mo agoWhat is our definition of progress ? We were progressing against world hunger but we decided to shut down efforts against it last year. Is it progress to invest $1T into semi-accurate plagiarism machines trained on stolen data ?
- overgard 3mo agoSadly, a lot of peoples definition of progress is "number go up". The stock market is booming and yet most people are poorer than they were in the past because those numbers and that "progress" is only in the interest of a very small number of people completely disconnected from the society they live in.
- basisword 3mo agoAGI isn't necessary to completely change things. The change that's occurred in the last 6 months alone is massive. Another couple of big steps like the end of last year and the world is unrecognisable from even a few years ago.
- postalrat 3mo agoGive your arguments for it not being inevitable if you question it.
- arcatech 3mo agoI’m not the person you’re responding to, but I’ll answer. It’s not worth the (token) cost. It’s too inefficient. It’s brute-forcing solutions to problems by spending more and more tokens.
- Planktonne 3mo agoThere is no reason to believe that it is inevitable.
- marginalia_nu 3mo agoWell if it's inevitable, why are we working toward it?
- fullshark 3mo agoBecause we don’t want to be left behind as members of the permanent underclass. Unless you own the god machine or work on improving it you don’t matter.
- marginalia_nu 3mo agoWhy will those groups matter? Why would it need someone working to improve itself?
- vladmk 3mo agoJust like beavers build dams - we’re working towards it because we’re programmed to. YOU on the other hand don’t have to work on it the rest will and that’s all we need. Humans have built tools since our conception this is just the next natural tool like fire.
- flohofwoe 3mo agoAbout as 'inevitable' as fusion power, virtual reality and flying cars I'd say. The actual technological revolutions are usually less 'obvious'.
- tspng 3mo agoI always found arguments for or against such technological advancements meaningless, if we don't specify what timeframes we are talking about. Sometimes I have the impression that people who disagree are simply thinking in different timeframes. For me, only short- and sometimes mid-term timeframes are practical in such deabtes. Long-term is interesting, but more in the realm of science fiction. In the context of AGI, is it inevitable eventually? Sure, I would agree, unless some catastrophic event puts back our technological advancement. IMO, don't see the path to AGI with the current tech, though. All current SOTA agents are still LLM based with all their flaws (limited reasoning, generalization, incomplete world model, hallucinations, ...). At their core, they are still next token predictors with a limited context. Most of the advances in AI in the past 2 years are in post-training and harnesses. I'd expect a different core technology than just an LLM in order to get to AGI.
- sarchertech 3mo ago> In the context of AGI, is it inevitable eventually? Sure, I would agree, unless some catastrophic event puts back our technological advancement. What if it’s not a catastrophic event, but technological progress just asymptotically approaches 0? What if there is a limit to layers upon layers of abstraction and at some point it just becomes too complicated to keep going? What if we all somehow decide that we don’t want AGI? It seems impossible now but a lot of people really seem to hate AI. What if that sentiment grows globally the next 50-100 years? That’s all ignoring the possibility that the materialists are wrong. Around 80% of the world believes in some kind of soul or spirit. If anything materialism is a bit of a fringe belief.
- seanclayton 3mo agoWhat is a globally accepted sentiment found in every nation, tribe, village, and domicile across the globe today?
- sarchertech 3mo agoThe prohibition against unjust killing is pretty much universal. What is or isn’t unjust is variable, but all societies have the concept of and prohibition against unjust killing. It’s true that if AGI is easy for a small group of people to build prohibition isn’t really possible. But if AGI takes a massive data center and billions of dollars, it could be.
- lumost 3mo agoit's a common missconception that engineers spend most of their time producing code based on documented requirements in jira tickets. I'd believe that a complete automation of this aspect of our industry would only be enough to provide a 10-20% boost in productivity. Still impressive, but within the range of "Our team improved our CI, build times, development process etc."
- cmrdporcupine 3mo agoExactly this. Grinding away inside various places I've worked for the last 10 years I longed for intense chunks of actually writing code. It was actually a rare treat to get something large and coherent enough to involve code production. Most times were spent juggling paperwork, bouncing back and forth on code reviews, negotiating ambiguous requirements, and attending pointless meetings. Granted... the agentic tools can also help with that. I've had them automate JIRA tedium for me before, much to middle management's chagrin.
- andrekandre 3mo ago> Most times were spent juggling paperwork, bouncing back and forth on code reviews, negotiating ambiguous requirements, and attending pointless meetings. you are only as fast as your slowest part. it seems so many execs and managers are clueless about things people discovered decades ago (deming, goldratt, demarco et al)
- skydhash 3mo agoWith hardware, there’s a physical element that the management can appreciate, even when they don’t understand every constraint. With code, it’s that nebulous thing where the only thing visible are pictures on the screen. Trusting engineers is apparently too high a bar to cross.
- chilmers 3mo agoThis is a bit like going back in time to the beginning of the industrial revolution and estimating the impact of a mechanisation based on comparing the speed of early mechanical looms vs. a skilled human. It takes years or decades for the automation of an artisan process to shake out, because it involves rethinking how everything around the now-automated process happens, and because the benefits involve the automation's ability to continue scaling beyond a level where human capacity was saturated. We're only at the very beginning of that process for coding, and right now we tend to see LLMs somewhat awkwardly inserted into pre-existing software development lifecycles. But it's unlikely that'll be still be the way we're creating software in 10/20 years time.
- dylan604 3mo agoRemember, the internet was born and touted to be the greatest technology invention in human kind before the bubbled popped but didn't die. It evolved into something else while other technology caught up before it became what it is now. (I'm strictly talking about the techy things it can do, and definitely not how content is now pretty much only from a handful of major social sites.) I'm getting the same vibes from whatever AI is now. Your inevitable part might not be wrong, but it really feels like we might have to get a bubble popping and a restart because the hype is way out ahead of where the tech actually is very similar to web1.0. But what do I know?
- overgard 3mo agoAI requires trillions of dollars of investment to keep going because it can't turn a profit and has a massive public backlash because the majority of people dislike it and distrust it. Companies have to force their employees to use it. It can only exist because of the massive amount of free knowledge it feeds on. It does not seem inevitable at all. This is the most forced-upon-us technology in history. It's only "inevitable" in the sense that it's extremely exciting to the greedy and lazy.
- vladmk 3mo agoIdk if I agree that companies force employees - some of my team did it on their own
- aurareturn 3mo agoI don't see how this is the same. This is about Meta falling behind in training competitive LLMs against Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs.
- marginalia_nu 3mo agoWhat it boils down to is that speed without direction is at best a waste of time and at worst a recipe for a roadrunner shaped hole in a solid cliff wall. Velocity is a vector, speed is a scalar. AI may help with speed, but it sure as hell doesn't help you move the right way.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- ozgrakkurt 3mo agoExpiration of sun is also inevitable