4 ms·

You seem to be so sure, but lobbying in the US can do incredible (and stupid) things. Look at the 3d printing control laws that are being passed in NY

prima-facie 4mo ago
And this is exactly my point, the OEMs have more lobbying power and leverage. Anthropic might be valuated at whatever amount, but they're a new player and their only product is a piece of software - which others like Google, OpenAI, etc also have (not identical but similar enough). EDIT: FYI https://ibb.co/nMYP34Rr https://ibb.co/nMYP34Rr
- gonzalohm 4mo ago
  And you think Google, one of the biggest cloud providers, Microsoft, etc. are going to be onboard with local LLMs? I don't think so
  - ThunderSizzle 4mo ago
    They'll do local LLMs you have to pay for. Best of both worlds: your LLM processing power will be locked behind a subscription. You'll be coerced into a subscription to unlock the processing power you already have, and it'll only be usable by official Microsoft, etc implementations. They get your money, get to control you, and best of all, they don't have to run it themselves in their data centers
    - jaapz 4mo ago
      Have we seen this with CPU's being throttled only to have to pay a subscription for more performance? Or GPU's? Or memory? Or storage?
      - ThunderSizzle 3mo ago
        The obvious brain-child of this concept is HP and their consumer inkjet printers. Originally, they sold their printers for "cheap" and then sold ink for a premium. However, as consumers realized any old printer ink works just as well as "HP"'s ink, they created DRM for ink-cartridges. Now, you have to basically use their "Instant Ink" monthly service in order to print anything, based on my understanding. $6 for 50 pages a month: https://www.hp.com/us-en/print https://www.hp.com/us-en/print (If you try using non-official cartridges, the printer may refuse to print entirely. If you cancel the sub, the printer will refuse to print until you renew or find DRM ink). LG is pushing for subscription models in their fridge line-ups: https://www.pcmag.com/news/lg-wants-you-to-subscribe-to-your-fridge https://www.pcmag.com/news/lg-wants-you-to-subscribe-to-your... I don't see a price for the subscription yet, but it seems they are targeting 2030 for a subscription fee lock-in. Intel did "Intel Upgrade Service", which locked already fabricated features on a CPU behind what is equivalent to today's same-day DLC - you paid more money, got a code, and it unlocked more cache and/or hyperthreading capabilities: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Upgrade_Service https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Upgrade_Service The backlash in 2010 on Intel was probably severe enough to delay it significantly, but with many industries trying it out (Cameras, TV's, fridges, cars, etc.), consumers probably won't have many options left.
  - gunalx 4mo ago
    Google knows they will happen and even ships it with chrome.
  - tingletech 4mo ago
    Google ships a local LLM with chrome browser nowadays. Don't they also provide the weights for the LLM built into iOS and MacOS?
  - thewebguyd 4mo ago
    Not sure about Google, but these Nvidia RTX Spark machines are specifically a Microsoft+Nvidia partnership. Microsoft is actually pushing hard on Windows security primitives for agents & local AI. At BUILD this year they used the phrase "unmetered local intelligence" more times than I can count. From their blog about the RTX Spark surface ultra > purpose-built to develop and run up to 1 trillion-parameter frontier AI models locally Google may not want it, but Microsoft has a ton of lobbying power, and being primarily an enterprise software and services company, they know local AI is important for their own customers, and will also be important to sustain the PC OEMs that are threatened by a move toward thin client like devices.
    - HPsquared 4mo ago
      Not forgetting Apple!
  - anon373839 4mo ago
    Google and Microsoft both have released a bunch of open models and research, unlike Anthropic, which does nothing but take.
- Georgelemental 4mo ago
  Said OEMs could advocate for narrow carve-outs that apply only to them
danlitt 4mo ago
> 3d printing control laws that are being passed in NY The "don't print guns" laws? What lobby would that be? I actually agree that the US is very vulnerable to lobbying and that 3d printing restrictions are dumb, but I have no idea how you connected the two.
- willy_k 4mo ago
  The “install software that phones home to [government db] to check if the tube shape you want to print on the tool you bought and own is different enough from another tube that’s been used in a gun” laws? Laws that don’t meaningfully impact alleged 3d printing of guns because you can’t 3d print the metal parts of a gun that are needed to actually do gun things, on the vast majority of devices these laws would restrict.
  - danlitt 4mo ago
    Did you read beyond the first sentence? This reply makes no sense if you read the whole comment.
    - willy_k 4mo ago
      Yeah fair, I did when I was halfway through and decided to get my piece out anyway. These laws are stupid at best
- kube-system 4mo ago
  > The "don't print guns" laws? What lobby would that be? Gun control lobbying groups are pushing for these laws. https://www.everytown.org/solutions/stop-spread-of-3d-printed-ghost-guns/#why-does-it-need-to-be-solved https://www.everytown.org/solutions/stop-spread-of-3d-printe...
  - CamperBob2 4mo ago
    Wow, that is some breathtaking stupidity. Almost literally breathtaking. Who is funding these people?
bmurphy1976 4mo ago
It's not just NY. California, Colorado, Washington, they are trying to pull this bullshit in a whole bunch of states.

prima-facie 4mo ago

And this is exactly my point, the OEMs have more lobbying power and leverage. Anthropic might be valuated at whatever amount, but they're a new player and their only product is a piece of software - which others like Google, OpenAI, etc also have (not identical but similar enough). EDIT: FYI https://ibb.co/nMYP34Rr https://ibb.co/nMYP34Rr

gonzalohm 4mo ago
And you think Google, one of the biggest cloud providers, Microsoft, etc. are going to be onboard with local LLMs? I don't think so
- ThunderSizzle 4mo ago
  They'll do local LLMs you have to pay for. Best of both worlds: your LLM processing power will be locked behind a subscription. You'll be coerced into a subscription to unlock the processing power you already have, and it'll only be usable by official Microsoft, etc implementations. They get your money, get to control you, and best of all, they don't have to run it themselves in their data centers
  - jaapz 4mo ago
    Have we seen this with CPU's being throttled only to have to pay a subscription for more performance? Or GPU's? Or memory? Or storage?
    - ThunderSizzle 3mo ago
      The obvious brain-child of this concept is HP and their consumer inkjet printers. Originally, they sold their printers for "cheap" and then sold ink for a premium. However, as consumers realized any old printer ink works just as well as "HP"'s ink, they created DRM for ink-cartridges. Now, you have to basically use their "Instant Ink" monthly service in order to print anything, based on my understanding. $6 for 50 pages a month: https://www.hp.com/us-en/print https://www.hp.com/us-en/print (If you try using non-official cartridges, the printer may refuse to print entirely. If you cancel the sub, the printer will refuse to print until you renew or find DRM ink). LG is pushing for subscription models in their fridge line-ups: https://www.pcmag.com/news/lg-wants-you-to-subscribe-to-your-fridge https://www.pcmag.com/news/lg-wants-you-to-subscribe-to-your... I don't see a price for the subscription yet, but it seems they are targeting 2030 for a subscription fee lock-in. Intel did "Intel Upgrade Service", which locked already fabricated features on a CPU behind what is equivalent to today's same-day DLC - you paid more money, got a code, and it unlocked more cache and/or hyperthreading capabilities: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Upgrade_Service https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Upgrade_Service The backlash in 2010 on Intel was probably severe enough to delay it significantly, but with many industries trying it out (Cameras, TV's, fridges, cars, etc.), consumers probably won't have many options left.
- gunalx 4mo ago
  Google knows they will happen and even ships it with chrome.
- tingletech 4mo ago
  Google ships a local LLM with chrome browser nowadays. Don't they also provide the weights for the LLM built into iOS and MacOS?
- thewebguyd 4mo ago
  Not sure about Google, but these Nvidia RTX Spark machines are specifically a Microsoft+Nvidia partnership. Microsoft is actually pushing hard on Windows security primitives for agents & local AI. At BUILD this year they used the phrase "unmetered local intelligence" more times than I can count. From their blog about the RTX Spark surface ultra > purpose-built to develop and run up to 1 trillion-parameter frontier AI models locally Google may not want it, but Microsoft has a ton of lobbying power, and being primarily an enterprise software and services company, they know local AI is important for their own customers, and will also be important to sustain the PC OEMs that are threatened by a move toward thin client like devices.
  - HPsquared 4mo ago
    Not forgetting Apple!
- anon373839 4mo ago
  Google and Microsoft both have released a bunch of open models and research, unlike Anthropic, which does nothing but take.
Georgelemental 4mo ago
Said OEMs could advocate for narrow carve-outs that apply only to them

danlitt 4mo ago

> 3d printing control laws that are being passed in NY The "don't print guns" laws? What lobby would that be? I actually agree that the US is very vulnerable to lobbying and that 3d printing restrictions are dumb, but I have no idea how you connected the two.

willy_k 4mo ago
The “install software that phones home to [government db] to check if the tube shape you want to print on the tool you bought and own is different enough from another tube that’s been used in a gun” laws? Laws that don’t meaningfully impact alleged 3d printing of guns because you can’t 3d print the metal parts of a gun that are needed to actually do gun things, on the vast majority of devices these laws would restrict.
- danlitt 4mo ago
  Did you read beyond the first sentence? This reply makes no sense if you read the whole comment.
  - willy_k 4mo ago
    Yeah fair, I did when I was halfway through and decided to get my piece out anyway. These laws are stupid at best
kube-system 4mo ago
> The "don't print guns" laws? What lobby would that be? Gun control lobbying groups are pushing for these laws. https://www.everytown.org/solutions/stop-spread-of-3d-printed-ghost-guns/#why-does-it-need-to-be-solved https://www.everytown.org/solutions/stop-spread-of-3d-printe...
- CamperBob2 4mo ago
  Wow, that is some breathtaking stupidity. Almost literally breathtaking. Who is funding these people?

bmurphy1976 4mo ago

It's not just NY. California, Colorado, Washington, they are trying to pull this bullshit in a whole bunch of states.