4 ms·

Funny how everything worked pretty well, zoning restrictions and all, until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration.

by xienze 4mo ago

Funny how everything worked pretty well, zoning restrictions and all, until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration. An immigrant needs a house _today_, a baby needs their own separate housing unit in roughly 20 years. One approach towards population growth flattens the housing demand curve considerably, and it's not the one we're pursuing any longer. That's what's changed.

paulddraper 4mo ago
You’re going to be downvoted to heck.
JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
> until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration Do you have a source showing price increases correlate with migration? (The article seems to show a timing relationship between zoning and prices.)
- xienze 4mo ago
  Yeah I do, it's called supply and demand. To have a growing population, every couple needs to have an average of 2.1 children. Let's say a couple have two children. From t=0 until approximately t=20, all four people require one housing unit. If that same couple does not have children (guess what's happening in every single western country!) and we instead lean on migration to increase the population for them, at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people. It's not complicated.
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    This is not how one attributes principal causation among multiple potential causes. > at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people Plenty of families immigrate. And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. You’re assuming immigrant households are smaller than average, which would indeed be surprising unless they’re all quite wealthy.
    - xienze 4mo ago
      But you agree it certainly must contribute to the problem?
      - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
        > you agree it certainly must contribute to the problem? As a multi-decade effect? No, not really. Absent migration I don’t think home prices would be flat in Europe. In some cases, in the short term? Sure. But to answer to what extent is it a distraction versus actual driver of home unaffordability, you need numbers. The article provides compelling evidence for zoning. Given the animus against immigrants in Europe, I’d guess I’m assuming if these data existed they’d already have been found.
    - xienze 4mo ago
      > And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. Answer true or false. One couple+one child requires less housing (in the short-to-medium term) than one couple+one immigrant.
      - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
        > One couple+one child requires less housing (in the short-to-medium term) than one couple+one immigrant If two couples and two children take up one unit of housing while providing three units of labour, that’s more space efficient than the one couple + one child if even both parents work. This sort of napkin math doesn’t work for these problems. Particularly when we’re essentially debating elasticity with respect to demand versus supply.
- drnick1 4mo ago
  You can see it in the Japanese data. Japan is more or less closed to immigrants, is experiencing a (for now) slow population decline, and house prices are plummeting.
  - deleted 4mo ago
    [deleted]
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    > Japan is more or less closed to immigrants, is experienced a (for now) slow population decline, and house prices are plummeting Japan also famously builds lots of housing. (Agree they are a good example, though, for measuring these effects.)
  - orwin 4mo ago
    Japanese data shows the opposite, unless you think they weren't a closed country in the 80s. In fact, Japan has been my counterpoint to anybody claiming the housing crisis was caused by immigration.
netsharc 4mo ago
And in the boom times of the 60's/70's, European factories, construction, infrastructure builders, needed workers "today", not "in 20 years"...
- xienze 4mo ago
  Considerably less immigration was required for said workers because guess what, the requisite 2.1 children average per couple threshold was being met during those times.

by xienze 4mo ago

paulddraper 4mo ago

You’re going to be downvoted to heck.

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago

> until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration Do you have a source showing price increases correlate with migration? (The article seems to show a timing relationship between zoning and prices.)

xienze 4mo ago
Yeah I do, it's called supply and demand. To have a growing population, every couple needs to have an average of 2.1 children. Let's say a couple have two children. From t=0 until approximately t=20, all four people require one housing unit. If that same couple does not have children (guess what's happening in every single western country!) and we instead lean on migration to increase the population for them, at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people. It's not complicated.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  This is not how one attributes principal causation among multiple potential causes. > at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people Plenty of families immigrate. And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. You’re assuming immigrant households are smaller than average, which would indeed be surprising unless they’re all quite wealthy.
  - xienze 4mo ago
    But you agree it certainly must contribute to the problem?
    - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
      > you agree it certainly must contribute to the problem? As a multi-decade effect? No, not really. Absent migration I don’t think home prices would be flat in Europe. In some cases, in the short term? Sure. But to answer to what extent is it a distraction versus actual driver of home unaffordability, you need numbers. The article provides compelling evidence for zoning. Given the animus against immigrants in Europe, I’d guess I’m assuming if these data existed they’d already have been found.
  - xienze 4mo ago
    > And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. Answer true or false. One couple+one child requires less housing (in the short-to-medium term) than one couple+one immigrant.
    - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
      > One couple+one child requires less housing (in the short-to-medium term) than one couple+one immigrant If two couples and two children take up one unit of housing while providing three units of labour, that’s more space efficient than the one couple + one child if even both parents work. This sort of napkin math doesn’t work for these problems. Particularly when we’re essentially debating elasticity with respect to demand versus supply.
drnick1 4mo ago
You can see it in the Japanese data. Japan is more or less closed to immigrants, is experiencing a (for now) slow population decline, and house prices are plummeting.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > Japan is more or less closed to immigrants, is experienced a (for now) slow population decline, and house prices are plummeting Japan also famously builds lots of housing. (Agree they are a good example, though, for measuring these effects.)
- orwin 4mo ago
  Japanese data shows the opposite, unless you think they weren't a closed country in the 80s. In fact, Japan has been my counterpoint to anybody claiming the housing crisis was caused by immigration.

netsharc 4mo ago

And in the boom times of the 60's/70's, European factories, construction, infrastructure builders, needed workers "today", not "in 20 years"...

xienze 4mo ago
Considerably less immigration was required for said workers because guess what, the requisite 2.1 children average per couple threshold was being met during those times.