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The question is also what game they're playing. Deepseek came out of a hedge fund. I think it's no coincidence that their publications tend to have a large impa
by c7b 3mo ago
The question is also what game they're playing. Deepseek came out of a hedge fund. I think it's no coincidence that their publications tend to have a large impact on AI stock prices.
Destroying the growth story of overvalued stocks is an interesting investment strategy. It's not even new. Shortsellers understandably get terrible rep from execs, but their actions are more often in the public interest than you'd think. Normally it's exposing fraud, but here we get the really fortunate side benefit of what could eventually amount to the most significant contribution to the general software community since Linux.
- CharlesLau 3mo agoI always see these malicious speculations without evidence, simply because these companies are from China.
- chews 3mo agoxenophobia can be profitable, it's not hard to follow the financial incentives and explain the rhetoric.
- merelydev 3mo ago> The question is also what game they're playing. Deepseek came out of a hedge fund. I think it's no coincidence that their publications tend to have a large impact on AI stock prices. Its revealing that they always seem to publish after some big announcement by American AI companies. But regardless, this is one of the benefits of a duopoly.
- nozzlegear 3mo agoNo more revealing than OpenAI, Anthropic and Google always having some new model that just so happens to be waiting in the wings whenever their competitors announce their own model bump.
- mycall 3mo agoThat's because OpenAI, Anthropic and Google work on many models in parallel which work cooperatively from the user's POV. So GPT-5.6 is just a checkpoint of their multi-model development.
- nl 3mo agoI think you are reading a lot into this. There's always an announcement by one of the frontier labs.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- jingpostmedia 3mo ago[flagged]
- NitpickLawyer 3mo ago> They're backed by a quantitative hedge fund that views AI as infrastructure, not as a product to monetize directly. The ROI for them comes from trading alpha, not API revenue. That used to be true, but now they've raised ~7B$, so we'll see how / if that changes.
- disgruntledphd2 3mo agoYeah, they were in a tough position though. All their competitors were offering equity and they didn't.
- yogthos 3mo agoAlso, we’re seeing a classic commoditization spiral with open models rapidly closing the gap and driving prices towards the marginal cost of inference. The reality is that models themselves are general commodities and there's just not enough difference between them. A company can get ahead of others by a few months, but then the rest quickly close the gap. It's a really low margin business because there's no way to differentiate yourself. Chinese companies understand this and they're treating models as shared infrastructure akin to Linux. The money is going to be in customization niches. Companies will charge to tune models for specific use cases and charge support for that. There's also going to be money at the bottom for hardware vendors making chips and memory. But the middle tier of generic LLMs is seeing involution where there's relentless competition driving profits towards the bottom.
- try-working 3mo agoNope. It is purely a marketing and distribution strategy. Without open sourcing their models, their businesses would have never gotten off the ground. I've written about this here: https://try.works/writing-1#why-chinese-ai-labs-went-open-and-will-remain-open https://try.works/writing-1#why-chinese-ai-labs-went-open-an...
- 3mo ago
- taneq 3mo ago[dead]