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The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there. The best option at this point is kick the can down the road an
by cmiles8 4mo ago
The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there.
The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there Unless Anthropic also cancels its IPO, this probably isn't it.
- cmiles8 4mo agoThe math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.
- wiiww 4mo agoAgree but Anthropic momentum is fading too. Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.
- reilly3000 4mo agoHow is momentum fading when their headline product is so good it’s illegal?
- nemomarx 4mo agois no longer being able to sell it to half of your market good, financially?
- andy99 4mo agoI think they may have overplayed their hand so to speak. The end consequence is that their best model isn’t available right now, people are exploring alternatives, and realizing they work fine. It’s such a fast paced and competitive industry, anyone who takes even a short break is going to have a hard time coming back from it, and that’s basically what they’ve done.
- derwiki 4mo agoThankfully, many tech companies have shortened parental leave to 6 weeks!
- surgical_fire 4mo agoThat is a good marketing headline, but for it to work the model has to become available again in a reasonable timeframe. Otherwise people try other cheaper models, and they find out those models work perfectly for what they need.
- wiiww 4mo agoExpected cash flows, growth and risk. Go ahead and incorporate that in those 3 variables... lets see what you know before I bother replying.
- jazzyjackson 4mo agoHow do you grow your business when your flagship product is illegal?
- itemize123 4mo agoeasy - lobbying
- dgellow 4mo agoHasn’t worked for them so far
- throw1234567891 4mo agoThey don’t pay enough
- rgrPlantner 4mo agoYeh local models will continue to gain performance before they can IPO I only use free Gemini Pro to plan then scrape the log in Google Drive into local Qwen/Gemma+pi set up I can plan and architect with Gemini on my phone or wherever and a cron job + custom JSON parser at home updates context in local model setup
- lelanthran 4mo ago> Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money. Ironic, considering that they got their ball rolling by taking from Open Source with neither credit nor attribution.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked What are you basing this on? Both are currently doing rounds/tenders that are placing without problems. The media treats these two differently, as do financial influencers. But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.
- stymaar 4mo ago> But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market. The finance market and the market for these products are two different things. Anthropic has definitely been stealing market share to OpenAI in the past few month on many segments (be it enterprise or even consumers).
- itemize123 4mo agoit's not just media. or rather media is reporting based on fund interests.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> media is reporting based on fund interests Can you give an example that shows funds actually souring on OpenAI? (Like, not less enthusiastic than before. Actually souring. Selling.)
- treis 4mo agoChatGPT is the 5th most visited website in the world and gets a ridiculous amount of user data. They're going to be an advertising powerhouse.
- cmiles8 4mo agoThe advertising angle is significantly overrated. Theres only so many ad dollars to go around and so every dollar they make they have to take from so other player like Google. With Google having decent AI search now for free OpenAI is already well behind here.
- arealaccount 4mo agoUsers coming from Chat or Claude or the likes would be very high intent if done correctly, advertisers would pay a lot of money. I'm certain people would pull budget from Google.
- cmiles8 4mo agoBut Google has chat too now plus a ton more data about users OpenAI doesn’t have. There really isn’t anything OpenAI can do that Google isn’t also already doing.
- mdjxnxnxnd 4mo agoHonestly if ads start getting put into chats that service is dead to me
- rgrPlantner 4mo agoUseless stat without breakdown of time spent at the site and bot activity. It will draw a non-zero number just curious people who never use ChatGPT. And bots are exfiltrating model knowledge for the benefit of competition.
- rchaud 4mo agoThere are only so many ad dollars to go around. ChatGPT getting traffic doesn't mean they can convince ad buyers that their dollar goes further than at established players like Google and Meta. AI search is a commodity at this point, even DuckDuckGo has it. Reddit has been one of the world's top websites for over a decade, yet they are totally irrelevant in terms of ad product market share.
- lelanthran 4mo ago> Anthropic is seen as having momentum. How can you tell that? "The Market" at the moment is the private investor market and, to my (admittedly untrained) eye, those two companies are being treated exactly the same when they raise.
- arppacket 4mo agoI doubt that anyone at OpenAI would let their payday decrease. If anything, they got assurances that everyone would keep the bubble going until 2028 no matter what.
- bellowsgulch 4mo ago> The business math just isn’t there. What do you mean? I promise I'm not being facetious or satirical. I'm just too simple and conservative of an investor to understand this comment. (for example: Is the price-to-earnings ratio too high? I probably wouldn't want to invest in the business.)
- lennessy 4mo agoThey are losing too much money. With open source options that are always close to frontier performance it will always be hard for them reduce training costs and charge premium rates.
- bellowsgulch 4mo agoI guess my point is that IPO timing is irrelevant if they don’t have an actual profitable business.
- sschueller 4mo agoThere may never be another window. They will run out of money especially if open models catch up.
- pier25 4mo agoThey should have done it a year or two ago when the hype was strong. Today everyone knows there's no agi coming up and it will be a very long time until they generate any profits, if ever.