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OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the mark

OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant. Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / creditors?

simianwords 4mo ago
1. they didn't cancel their IPO and they were deliberate about having the option to time their IPO 2. he has tried over and over again to predict the bubble and peak [1] [2] [3] 3. that OpenAI is filing for an IPO next year is no vindication of Ed's claim when he specifically predicted the opposite (as I showed in the above comment) 4. OpenAI filing for an IPO next year has no bearing on its fundamentals 5. on Datacenters: Anthropic had to lease it from Elon's datacenter because they were too short on capacity and every one was complaining that their limits were too low [1] Ed on 2024, "threaten to begin a collapse that I’ve been predicting since March" https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage/ [2] Ed on 2024, "three quarters to prove itself before the apocalypse comes" https://www.wheresyoured.at/peakai/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/peakai/ [3] Ed on 2024, "things are beginning to collapse" https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/ Edit: the quality of discussion in this website is annoying sometimes.get downvoted for good faith discussion
- deleted 4mo ago
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- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > Edit: the quality of discussion in this website is annoying sometimes.get downvoted for good faith discussion Ignore it and don't do this: "Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.
- therobots927 4mo ago
  SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money. Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious.
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    > SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money What? How? SpaceX loses oodles of money. It's trading above its IPO, and just filled an oversubscribed bond deal. > Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious Zitron has a faithful following. He isn't a broadly-influential analyst.
    - therobots927 4mo ago
      You said: “ There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility.” What exactly do you think “volatility” means in this context?
  - jsnell 4mo ago
    > Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). They did not.
    - lovich 4mo ago

simianwords 4mo ago

1. they didn't cancel their IPO and they were deliberate about having the option to time their IPO 2. he has tried over and over again to predict the bubble and peak [1] [2] [3] 3. that OpenAI is filing for an IPO next year is no vindication of Ed's claim when he specifically predicted the opposite (as I showed in the above comment) 4. OpenAI filing for an IPO next year has no bearing on its fundamentals 5. on Datacenters: Anthropic had to lease it from Elon's datacenter because they were too short on capacity and every one was complaining that their limits were too low [1] Ed on 2024, "threaten to begin a collapse that I’ve been predicting since March" https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage/ [2] Ed on 2024, "three quarters to prove itself before the apocalypse comes" https://www.wheresyoured.at/peakai/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/peakai/ [3] Ed on 2024, "things are beginning to collapse" https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/ Edit: the quality of discussion in this website is annoying sometimes.get downvoted for good faith discussion

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JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
> Edit: the quality of discussion in this website is annoying sometimes.get downvoted for good faith discussion Ignore it and don't do this: "Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

therobots927 4mo ago
SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money. Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money What? How? SpaceX loses oodles of money. It's trading above its IPO, and just filled an oversubscribed bond deal. > Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious Zitron has a faithful following. He isn't a broadly-influential analyst.
  - therobots927 4mo ago
    You said: “ There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility.” What exactly do you think “volatility” means in this context?
- jsnell 4mo ago
  > Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). They did not.
  - lovich 4mo ago