3 ms·

Unfortunately, RAM is more like a taxi than an umbrella. > Anyone who’s spent any time in New York City knows that when it begins to rain, two things happen im

Unfortunately, RAM is more like a taxi than an umbrella. > Anyone who’s spent any time in New York City knows that when it begins to rain, two things happen immediately: It becomes easier to buy an umbrella and it becomes harder to hail a cab. As soon as the first few drops fall, people appear on the street selling cheap umbrellas, while a lucky few pedestrians occupy all the available cabs. http://shirky.com/2001/01/ http://shirky.com/2001/01/

groundzeros2015 3mo ago
No? It’s an interchangeable component which is manufactured at scale by many suppliers. Even though the elasticity of supply for taxis is less, rain encourages taxis to get on the road, and work longer to serve the spike in demand. With ride sharing apps the pool of supply is even more elastic.
- hackingonempty 3mo ago
  Building a RAM factory is a major investment and takes a lot of time. There is a big risk that by the time you enter production the rain will have stopped in the form of reduced demand and/or algorithmic improvements that reduce the memory required to produce good results. All of the attention is on the well funded frontier labs who may be buying up RAM as much to starve out competitors as anything else while in the background there is an army of researchers all over the world who only have a handful of consumer GPU to work with.
  - groundzeros2015 3mo ago
    I already mentioned 3 ways we get more RAM and none of them require building new factories. Although, I would not doubt that effort is also ongoing.
    - hackingonempty 3mo ago
      The only one you mentioned was existing factories extending production hours. AFAIK they already operate 24/7! Apple can't switch suppliers because everyone is selling out. Semiconductor factories are specialized and can't be easily switched to other types. It takes time and money and it stops making money for the duration, leading to a similar risk analysis as building a new one.
      - groundzeros2015 3mo ago
        1. existing factories increasing production 2. factories but are not making ram switch 3. Large consumers of ram use alternatives, broadening the supply And let’s suppose none of these make a mark and a new factory needs to be built or something. This means: 1. You wait for build out and prices go down. 2. Prices go down anyway because demand is not sustainable. And to turn it around, when you buy an expensive GPU to play computer games you are claiming a valuable industrial resource. Should the government subsidize your home consumption use case? Computer technology is a scarce resource with many uses.
        throw2ih020 3mo ago
        > existing factories increasing production All existing factories have maximized their production. > factories but are not making ram switch It takes 2-3 years to switch, by which time demand may have satisfied from other manufacturers building additional capacity. So ironically, investing too much into new capacity can be dangerous. > Large consumers of ram use alternatives, broadening the supply What alternative exists for NAND flash?
        groundzeros2015 3mo ago
        > All existing factories have maximized their production. Citation needed. This is almost certainly not true because capacity is not binary but an efficiency curve. As the cost of RAM increases it becomes economical to operate the factory at higher capacities. > It takes 2-3 years to switch Citation needed. Who sets the max speed limit for changing? > What alternative exists for NAND flash? There is a whole range of suppliers. The alternative is which flash and who manufactures it.

groundzeros2015 3mo ago

No? It’s an interchangeable component which is manufactured at scale by many suppliers. Even though the elasticity of supply for taxis is less, rain encourages taxis to get on the road, and work longer to serve the spike in demand. With ride sharing apps the pool of supply is even more elastic.

hackingonempty 3mo ago
Building a RAM factory is a major investment and takes a lot of time. There is a big risk that by the time you enter production the rain will have stopped in the form of reduced demand and/or algorithmic improvements that reduce the memory required to produce good results. All of the attention is on the well funded frontier labs who may be buying up RAM as much to starve out competitors as anything else while in the background there is an army of researchers all over the world who only have a handful of consumer GPU to work with.
- groundzeros2015 3mo ago
  I already mentioned 3 ways we get more RAM and none of them require building new factories. Although, I would not doubt that effort is also ongoing.
  - hackingonempty 3mo ago
    The only one you mentioned was existing factories extending production hours. AFAIK they already operate 24/7! Apple can't switch suppliers because everyone is selling out. Semiconductor factories are specialized and can't be easily switched to other types. It takes time and money and it stops making money for the duration, leading to a similar risk analysis as building a new one.
    - groundzeros2015 3mo ago
      1. existing factories increasing production 2. factories but are not making ram switch 3. Large consumers of ram use alternatives, broadening the supply And let’s suppose none of these make a mark and a new factory needs to be built or something. This means: 1. You wait for build out and prices go down. 2. Prices go down anyway because demand is not sustainable. And to turn it around, when you buy an expensive GPU to play computer games you are claiming a valuable industrial resource. Should the government subsidize your home consumption use case? Computer technology is a scarce resource with many uses.
      - throw2ih020 3mo ago
        > existing factories increasing production All existing factories have maximized their production. > factories but are not making ram switch It takes 2-3 years to switch, by which time demand may have satisfied from other manufacturers building additional capacity. So ironically, investing too much into new capacity can be dangerous. > Large consumers of ram use alternatives, broadening the supply What alternative exists for NAND flash?
        groundzeros2015 3mo ago
        > All existing factories have maximized their production. Citation needed. This is almost certainly not true because capacity is not binary but an efficiency curve. As the cost of RAM increases it becomes economical to operate the factory at higher capacities. > It takes 2-3 years to switch Citation needed. Who sets the max speed limit for changing? > What alternative exists for NAND flash? There is a whole range of suppliers. The alternative is which flash and who manufactures it.