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We kinda went through this with South Africa. The only thing saving Israel is the US protection and the nukes. US protection can change. Nukes are harder. Sou

We kinda went through this with South Africa. The only thing saving Israel is the US protection and the nukes. US protection can change. Nukes are harder. South Africa successfully utilized "strategic ambiguity". They never explicitly acknowledged they had the weapons, while making sure world leaders knew they were a credible threat. during South Africa's border wars (specifically against the Cubans in Angola), there were internal discussions about deploying tactical nuclear weapons. Because world leaders viewed that threat as entirely credible, it gave South Africa massive leverage. Feels like world leaders view modern Israeli threats through the exact same lens and i'd agree given recent covert operations like the beeper bombings hence this UN posture. Could we replicate the SA situation? probably not but maybe partially? When the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended, South Africa’s strategic leverage evaporated overnight. The US and UK no longer had a reason to shield them from crippling global economic sanctions. Feels like we are watching this in real time with Israel post Iran war. If the US entirely removed its diplomatic shield and allowed full global economic isolation to set in, the economic cost of maintaining a pariah state might eventually outweigh the perceived security benefit of the weapons. ('might' doing a lot of heavy lifting there) Also SA was also motivated by fear of the nukes getting in the hands of the incoming leftist government, Israel does not have that fear.

xg15 4mo ago
Not sure if it used to be the case with South Africa too, but I'm baffled how much ideological support Israel still has, in various population groups. There are at least two religious groups who seem to view it as integral part of a divine plan that trumps all other considerations. ("mainstream" Orthodox Jews and Evangelical Christians) Then there various secular narratives around the Jewish homeland, the rebirth (and Germany's redemption) after the Holocaust etc. For western politicians, it seems far easier to chime in to the dehumanization of Palestinians and either paint the daily suffering there as "tragic but necessary", make fun of it or dismiss it completely - than to object to those stories. This seems to work on a different layer than geopolitics, so I have doubts that a shift in geopolitics alone would change this. (I may be wrong) Though maybe the changed perception of Israel after the Gaza war might change it.
- the_origami_fox 4mo ago
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  - xg15 4mo ago
    Yes, and that seems to be the rationale of western politicians as well, essentially, "we have to protect Israel to protect the Jewish people, without it, the Holocaust would risk repeating" That makes sense as a "subjective experience" (if there is something like the subjective experience of a people), but it fails the reality check for me. Yes, Israel is the center of Jewish life today (New York coming next apparently), but I can't really believe that it genuinely is the safest place for Jews in the world today - not after the last years. Jews in the US or Europe were not at risk of being murdered by Hamas, hit by a missile from Iran or get conscripted in a war. Jews in Israel were. > Most want peace but believe their Arab enemies do not. Well, everyone wants peace in the "I won" sense. I don't see that most Israeli Jews want peace in the sense of living together peacefully with their neighbors. (Neither do their neighbors, true - which is why I fault Israelis less here than the western allies who should apply force to both sides to deescalate and reconcile if they really wanted to end the conflict, but who instead only apply pressure to one side and unquestionably support the other side)
    - throw310822 4mo ago
      > Neither do their neighbors, true Their neighbours don't really have an option though. Stopping all resistance will not stop the settlers from harassing and chasing away the natives, and it will not force Israel to respect any border (which they took care of not even declaring). If anything, Palestinian resistance is functional to the progress of the occupation, so, if things get too quiet, a couple of killings or demolished homes keep the situation dynamic enough. Unless you're counting on the moral authority of the Western nations that stayed silent or even financed and armed Israel while it was starving a population under blockade and bombings, murdering tens of thousands of civilians, killing hundreds of journalists, bombing hospitals and universities. Maybe they would say something if Israel killed and conquered a population that absolutely refuses to react. What do you think?
HDThoreaun 4mo ago
Might really is doing some heavy lifting here. If the UN turns on Israel and they become sanctioned by the west the most likely outcome is that Israel turns to China. China needs stabilizing forces in the Middle East because of their lack of domestic fossil fuels. They also see similarities between the Gaza situation and Taiwan. The Israelis are fiercely aggressive on security issues. They will not give up on that because of sanctions I think. What US backing is really doing is mostly just making it cheaper for Israel to defend itself so that the Israelis feel less pressure to be aggressive with making buffer zones. Without the US funding the iron dome we would see a real genocide in Gaza.
asdff 4mo ago
It is funny how much hand wringing is done with nuclear weapons. like they are this big line in the sand when really the same result happens with or without them. Gaza looks as wrecked as Hiroshima or Dresden. Doesn't matter it seems in terms of the function. I guess the bigger risk is really the implication vs the action. It is like Kayfabe for the political class.
- notnaut 4mo ago
  I know traditional munitions aren’t exactly “clean” but isn’t nuclear fallout still a unique concern?
  - asdff 4mo ago
    No one in power meaningfully cares about environmental destruction.
    - Sabinus 4mo ago
      They do meaningfully care about the significant radiation that is likely to drift into their own citizens. Israel is not a large country. Your analysis on nuclear use doesn't consider the lingering poisoning of people and land compared to conventional weapons. It's not Keyfabe. You would vastly prefer being attacked with conventional weapons.
      - asdff 4mo ago
        I mean they don't care about pollutants currently harming the health of their own citizens not to mention the environmental crisis and climate change making these regions increasingly inhabitable. Why would they care about radiation? It would be easy to sweep under the rug and wash with undercoverage like the climate issues have been.
taffydavid 4mo ago
Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal on earth, and we have no issue sanctioning them excessively.

xg15 4mo ago

Not sure if it used to be the case with South Africa too, but I'm baffled how much ideological support Israel still has, in various population groups. There are at least two religious groups who seem to view it as integral part of a divine plan that trumps all other considerations. ("mainstream" Orthodox Jews and Evangelical Christians) Then there various secular narratives around the Jewish homeland, the rebirth (and Germany's redemption) after the Holocaust etc. For western politicians, it seems far easier to chime in to the dehumanization of Palestinians and either paint the daily suffering there as "tragic but necessary", make fun of it or dismiss it completely - than to object to those stories. This seems to work on a different layer than geopolitics, so I have doubts that a shift in geopolitics alone would change this. (I may be wrong) Though maybe the changed perception of Israel after the Gaza war might change it.

the_origami_fox 4mo ago
* * *
- xg15 4mo ago
  Yes, and that seems to be the rationale of western politicians as well, essentially, "we have to protect Israel to protect the Jewish people, without it, the Holocaust would risk repeating" That makes sense as a "subjective experience" (if there is something like the subjective experience of a people), but it fails the reality check for me. Yes, Israel is the center of Jewish life today (New York coming next apparently), but I can't really believe that it genuinely is the safest place for Jews in the world today - not after the last years. Jews in the US or Europe were not at risk of being murdered by Hamas, hit by a missile from Iran or get conscripted in a war. Jews in Israel were. > Most want peace but believe their Arab enemies do not. Well, everyone wants peace in the "I won" sense. I don't see that most Israeli Jews want peace in the sense of living together peacefully with their neighbors. (Neither do their neighbors, true - which is why I fault Israelis less here than the western allies who should apply force to both sides to deescalate and reconcile if they really wanted to end the conflict, but who instead only apply pressure to one side and unquestionably support the other side)
  - throw310822 4mo ago
    > Neither do their neighbors, true Their neighbours don't really have an option though. Stopping all resistance will not stop the settlers from harassing and chasing away the natives, and it will not force Israel to respect any border (which they took care of not even declaring). If anything, Palestinian resistance is functional to the progress of the occupation, so, if things get too quiet, a couple of killings or demolished homes keep the situation dynamic enough. Unless you're counting on the moral authority of the Western nations that stayed silent or even financed and armed Israel while it was starving a population under blockade and bombings, murdering tens of thousands of civilians, killing hundreds of journalists, bombing hospitals and universities. Maybe they would say something if Israel killed and conquered a population that absolutely refuses to react. What do you think?

HDThoreaun 4mo ago

Might really is doing some heavy lifting here. If the UN turns on Israel and they become sanctioned by the west the most likely outcome is that Israel turns to China. China needs stabilizing forces in the Middle East because of their lack of domestic fossil fuels. They also see similarities between the Gaza situation and Taiwan. The Israelis are fiercely aggressive on security issues. They will not give up on that because of sanctions I think. What US backing is really doing is mostly just making it cheaper for Israel to defend itself so that the Israelis feel less pressure to be aggressive with making buffer zones. Without the US funding the iron dome we would see a real genocide in Gaza.

asdff 4mo ago

It is funny how much hand wringing is done with nuclear weapons. like they are this big line in the sand when really the same result happens with or without them. Gaza looks as wrecked as Hiroshima or Dresden. Doesn't matter it seems in terms of the function. I guess the bigger risk is really the implication vs the action. It is like Kayfabe for the political class.

notnaut 4mo ago
I know traditional munitions aren’t exactly “clean” but isn’t nuclear fallout still a unique concern?
- asdff 4mo ago
  No one in power meaningfully cares about environmental destruction.
  - Sabinus 4mo ago
    They do meaningfully care about the significant radiation that is likely to drift into their own citizens. Israel is not a large country. Your analysis on nuclear use doesn't consider the lingering poisoning of people and land compared to conventional weapons. It's not Keyfabe. You would vastly prefer being attacked with conventional weapons.
    - asdff 4mo ago
      I mean they don't care about pollutants currently harming the health of their own citizens not to mention the environmental crisis and climate change making these regions increasingly inhabitable. Why would they care about radiation? It would be easy to sweep under the rug and wash with undercoverage like the climate issues have been.

taffydavid 4mo ago

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal on earth, and we have no issue sanctioning them excessively.