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The US govt is going to ban foreign models and foreign providers, and frontier labs are still cooked, because US companies will RLwash Chinese models to try and
by CuriouslyC 4mo ago
The US govt is going to ban foreign models and foreign providers, and frontier labs are still cooked, because US companies will RLwash Chinese models to try and get in on the captive market. The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding, their next play is custom models for specific domains... Anthropic Galen for biomedical research, Anthropic Locke for legal analysis, etc, and you won't see _ANY_ intermediate work on the model, you will put in query, maybe get some questions fired back during work, and get a "final report."
Eventually the frontier labs will try to cut out the middle man once these models prove themselves and start doing partnerships with big firms in the domains, so they can take a % of the profits in perpetuity rather than just taking a one time payment. For example, after Anthropic Galen, they'll do a partnership with Pfizer to generate Ozempic-Superjacked and take 20% royalties on global sales.
- Analemma_ 4mo ago> The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding You are way too deep in the HN bubble.
- CuriouslyC 4mo agoI'm looking at how market/human forces are going to make the game play out when extended to its logical conclusion, not the score on the scoreboard RIGHT now.
- hackingonempty 4mo ago> The US govt is going to ban foreign models The people have a right to make and use whatever models they want, protected by the constitution. At a minimum, the models are described in research papers that are unquestionably protected speech. Skilled devs turn those into programs, also protected speech.
- tmpz22 4mo agoYes our passionate defense of Academia will surely survive Techno Oligarchs desire for a 20th vacation home
- giantrobot 4mo agoThe current administration has repeatedly demonstrated they do not feel constrained by laws or the Constitution.
- 8n4vidtmkvmk 4mo agoHow could Trump ban tiktok then? And Fable for that matter. Maybe you're somehow legally allowed to distribute and download the weights, but most of us can't run GLM 5.2 at home.
- verdverm 4mo agoYou won't need a frontier size model for most tasks before long. Qwen 3.6 (small) punches way above its weight. I run it at home @8bit on an OEM Spark
- dualvariable 4mo agoAnd corporations could run DeepSeek models on cloud hardware.
- verdverm 4mo agoYou can run most open models on cloud hardware. Google Cloud gives you a click to deploy, but then you have saturation / ROI considerations, versus Google serving them up multi-tenant, per-token.
- dualvariable 4mo agoFor ROI though you can run 24/7 agentic-style workloads, constantly churning through all your source code looking for security bugs (or whatever) and you DONT pay per-token costs. A DeepSeek instance running 24/7 in a cloud provider will beat doing that with Claude which could bankrupt you with 100x more costs, even though it might find more. And DeepSeek may find enough to keep your engineering team saturated and busy fixing things.
- verdverm 4mo agoThis process works better with multiple models and not simply slinging Ai at it 24/7. It's not an ROI just because you keep the GPU busy. The signal to noise ratio is not there yet
- skywhopper 4mo agoThe US government isn’t supposed to be allowed to constrain speech, but they do have the power to constrain commerce, and they can ban the sale of AI services and AI-capable hardware if they choose.
- andrekandre 4mo ago> but they do have the power to constrain commerce its an interesting idea; i'd like to see someone claim buying/selling as a form of speech...
- Supermancho 4mo agoCitizens United got pretty close in the Supreme Court's 5–4 decision on January 21, 2010, ruling that corporations and unions cannot be prohibited from making independent political expenditures, citing First Amendment free speech protections.
- andrekandre 4mo agoyea, that was the hint in my comment... just waiting for the other shoe to drop so to speak
- BigTTYGothGF 4mo ago> protected by the constitution I don't see how.
- N_Lens 4mo agoConstitution doing more work as toilet paper these days.
- woeirua 4mo ago>The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding This is a delusional take. Sorry, but anyone claiming this hasn't used Fable and compared it to the current best open source models. I see a lot of hype posting about GLM5.2. I see absolutely ZERO people using it in production compared to GPT 5.5 or Opus 4.8.
- CuriouslyC 4mo agoCoding agents are edging into diminishing returns for common tasks. The whole Opus 4.5+ arc shows this for a large swathe of people. Chinese Fable is likely <=6 months away. US Frontier labs are structurally disadvantaged in the long term so advantage is only going to skew China.