4 ms·

Noteworthy that Z.ai, maker of the just released near-frontier GLM 5.2, has already been on the Entity List since Jan 2025[1]. Being on the Entity List does

by em500 4mo ago

Noteworthy that Z.ai, maker of the just released near-frontier GLM 5.2, has already been on the Entity List since Jan 2025[1]. Being on the Entity List does not mean all trade is forbidden. Broadly speaking it means American companies and individuals are not allowed sell them goods and services, but they are still allowed to buy from them and pay them. AFAIK the Chinese AI companies barely depend on US goods and services, except for nVidia GPUs which were export restricted anyway, so it doesn't seem to be very consequential (see Z.ai). For the RAM maker CXMT it could be a lot more problematic though. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z.ai https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z.ai

tmaly 4mo ago
that is open to debate. Any commercial activity with a sanctioned entity has a pretty broad interpretation. Companies might not want to take the chance even if they are "still allowed".
dist-epoch 4mo ago
> except for nVidia GPUs which were export restricted anyway, those export restrictions are a joke. when they were introduced, there was a sudden spike in NVIDIA GPU exports to surrounding Asian countries. and the US government knows this CXMT memory maker will not be banned, because US AI labs are salivating at the idea of more RAM supply, and are lobbying hard to prevent restrictions
- alephnerd 4mo ago
  And those who enabled it (the leadership team at SuperMicro) were charged by the US [0] and Taiwan [1] [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/us-charges-three-people-with-conspiring-divert-ai-tech-china-2026-03-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us-charges-three-people-with-c... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/taiwan-investigates-three-alleged-illegal-export-high-end-ai-servers-2026-05-21/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/taiwan-investigates...
  - overfeed 4mo ago
    > And those who enabled it There is no single "it", the Singapore loophole is well known, and nothing has been done about it. Except by China, once , when it blocked the sale of Manus to Meta, even though on paper, Manus is a Singaporean enterprise.
Matl 4mo ago
What's the publicly stated/marketing reason for capitalist America to put companies on the Entity List? Genuinely asking. Because to me it screams 'we were only for the free market until there was no competition'
- Matl 4mo ago
  "First published in 1997 to inform the public on entities involved in disseminating weapons of mass destruction, the list has since expanded to include entities that engaged in "activities sanctioned by the State Department and activities contrary to U.S. national security and/or foreign policy interests" So RAM chip makers when there's a RAM shortage must be 'contrary to U.S. national security and/or foreign policy interests' i.e. the US government is trying to squeeze its citizens on RAM prices. Nice.
  - splitstud 4mo ago
    [dead]
  - Izkata 4mo ago
    Other way around according to what GGP quoted, this would get RAM into the US but not out, reducing prices.
    - mapontosevenths 4mo ago
      > Other way around according to what GGP quoted, this would get RAM into the US but not out, reducing prices. Only in a world where the other party has no agency. In real life the other party raises prices on their exports to compensate for the supply chain disruption and they still get the items. Ultimately the consumer pays more, the extra goes the government, and the net impact is just obfuscated taxation and a reduction in both supply and demand that's bad for the economy and other living things.
- _heimdall 4mo ago
  Free markets generally only make sense when at the same scope of the ruling government. When country A can manipulate markets in ways that country B can't or won't, eventually country B will attempt to make trade rules that level the playing field. Its also worth noting we don't really have free markets in the US anyway.
torginus 4mo ago
How does that even work? If Z.ai wants to buy lets say GPUs for AI training, what's stopping them from going to a local reseller? Its not even circumventing the rules, its the natural thing to do. For that matter, does (only) NVIDIA make datacenter cards? When I buy a gaming card, I dont buy from NVIDIA, I buy from an integrator, like Gigabyte, who work with a company like Foxconn to make the cards.
- jacobgkau 4mo ago
  The GamersNexus documentary (https://youtu.be/1H3xQaf7BFI https://youtu.be/1H3xQaf7BFI) on the semi-underground GPU trade in China, while a little amateurish in terms of depth and general atmosphere, is an interesting watch and may answer some of your questions. Basically, those export controls make GPUs more expensive for affected parties in China, but don't effectively stop them from being acquired or used over there.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- janalsncm 4mo ago
  The export restrictions only apply to certain GPU models, which are the more recent powerful ones used for training tasks. So the H100, B100 etc. are banned along with 4090, 5090. Nvidia has downgraded chips that aren’t banned. H100 is banned, H800 is allowed. A100 is banned, A800 is allowed. But the sale has a tariff attached. That’s all how it’s supposed to work. In practice companies probably circumvent the restrictions.
  - skeptic_ai 4mo ago
    Can I tell you I can go downstairs now and buy a 5090 (not d or d2 version, the real 5090) in China for 4000usd (33000rmb)? They have it stock right now, they have since release. It’s a Japan version. I didn’t ask about h100 or others but can’t see why they wouldn’t have.
    - janalsncm 4mo ago
pranavj 4mo ago
Good context. And it shows the limit of this kind of control: the model at the top of the open-weights index this week comes from a lab already on that list, and that changes nothing about whether I can run it. Once weights are on Hugging Face the download doesn't care about an Entity List. Chip export controls bite. Weight controls mostly can't.

by em500 4mo ago

tmaly 4mo ago

that is open to debate. Any commercial activity with a sanctioned entity has a pretty broad interpretation. Companies might not want to take the chance even if they are "still allowed".

dist-epoch 4mo ago

> except for nVidia GPUs which were export restricted anyway, those export restrictions are a joke. when they were introduced, there was a sudden spike in NVIDIA GPU exports to surrounding Asian countries. and the US government knows this CXMT memory maker will not be banned, because US AI labs are salivating at the idea of more RAM supply, and are lobbying hard to prevent restrictions

alephnerd 4mo ago
And those who enabled it (the leadership team at SuperMicro) were charged by the US [0] and Taiwan [1] [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/us-charges-three-people-with-conspiring-divert-ai-tech-china-2026-03-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us-charges-three-people-with-c... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/taiwan-investigates-three-alleged-illegal-export-high-end-ai-servers-2026-05-21/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/taiwan-investigates...
- overfeed 4mo ago
  > And those who enabled it There is no single "it", the Singapore loophole is well known, and nothing has been done about it. Except by China, once , when it blocked the sale of Manus to Meta, even though on paper, Manus is a Singaporean enterprise.

Matl 4mo ago

What's the publicly stated/marketing reason for capitalist America to put companies on the Entity List? Genuinely asking. Because to me it screams 'we were only for the free market until there was no competition'

Matl 4mo ago
"First published in 1997 to inform the public on entities involved in disseminating weapons of mass destruction, the list has since expanded to include entities that engaged in "activities sanctioned by the State Department and activities contrary to U.S. national security and/or foreign policy interests" So RAM chip makers when there's a RAM shortage must be 'contrary to U.S. national security and/or foreign policy interests' i.e. the US government is trying to squeeze its citizens on RAM prices. Nice.
- splitstud 4mo ago
  [dead]
- Izkata 4mo ago
  Other way around according to what GGP quoted, this would get RAM into the US but not out, reducing prices.
  - mapontosevenths 4mo ago
    > Other way around according to what GGP quoted, this would get RAM into the US but not out, reducing prices. Only in a world where the other party has no agency. In real life the other party raises prices on their exports to compensate for the supply chain disruption and they still get the items. Ultimately the consumer pays more, the extra goes the government, and the net impact is just obfuscated taxation and a reduction in both supply and demand that's bad for the economy and other living things.
_heimdall 4mo ago
Free markets generally only make sense when at the same scope of the ruling government. When country A can manipulate markets in ways that country B can't or won't, eventually country B will attempt to make trade rules that level the playing field. Its also worth noting we don't really have free markets in the US anyway.

torginus 4mo ago

How does that even work? If Z.ai wants to buy lets say GPUs for AI training, what's stopping them from going to a local reseller? Its not even circumventing the rules, its the natural thing to do. For that matter, does (only) NVIDIA make datacenter cards? When I buy a gaming card, I dont buy from NVIDIA, I buy from an integrator, like Gigabyte, who work with a company like Foxconn to make the cards.

jacobgkau 4mo ago
The GamersNexus documentary (https://youtu.be/1H3xQaf7BFI https://youtu.be/1H3xQaf7BFI) on the semi-underground GPU trade in China, while a little amateurish in terms of depth and general atmosphere, is an interesting watch and may answer some of your questions. Basically, those export controls make GPUs more expensive for affected parties in China, but don't effectively stop them from being acquired or used over there.
deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
janalsncm 4mo ago
The export restrictions only apply to certain GPU models, which are the more recent powerful ones used for training tasks. So the H100, B100 etc. are banned along with 4090, 5090. Nvidia has downgraded chips that aren’t banned. H100 is banned, H800 is allowed. A100 is banned, A800 is allowed. But the sale has a tariff attached. That’s all how it’s supposed to work. In practice companies probably circumvent the restrictions.
- skeptic_ai 4mo ago
  Can I tell you I can go downstairs now and buy a 5090 (not d or d2 version, the real 5090) in China for 4000usd (33000rmb)? They have it stock right now, they have since release. It’s a Japan version. I didn’t ask about h100 or others but can’t see why they wouldn’t have.
  - janalsncm 4mo ago

pranavj 4mo ago

Good context. And it shows the limit of this kind of control: the model at the top of the open-weights index this week comes from a lab already on that list, and that changes nothing about whether I can run it. Once weights are on Hugging Face the download doesn't care about an Entity List. Chip export controls bite. Weight controls mostly can't.