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‘Why wouldn’t anyone give away frontier AI?’ sounds like ‘why wouldn’t anyone give away uranium enrichment?’ i.e. I can’t comprehend the state of mind and the w

by baq 4mo ago

‘Why wouldn’t anyone give away frontier AI?’ sounds like ‘why wouldn’t anyone give away uranium enrichment?’ i.e. I can’t comprehend the state of mind and the world model of anyone asking a question like that, which is apparently quite a few folks here on HN!

cassianoleal 4mo ago
> Why wouldn’t anyone give away frontier AI? They already are, to an extent. If we believe Amodei's nutjob take that Mythos/Fable are the end of the world in the wrong hands, we should have an open source Chinese model within 6-12 months that's already end-of-world level, so the cat is going to be way out of the bag long before the US labs go out of business.
- baq 4mo ago
  > should have an open source Chinese model within 6-12 months that's already end-of-world level that's the exact thing I'm talking about. I don't see why is half the people around here so sure that China will continue to release anything at all. they are releasing non-frontier models on a 6-month lag, yes, but the reasons why to release them are overshadowed by reasons to not do that for mythos-class models. IOW why would they give away a dual use technology just like that?
  - cassianoleal 4mo ago
    > the reasons why to release them are overshadowed by reasons to not do that for mythos-class models Why? What are those reasons? How come they don't already exist for DeepSeek V4 or GLM-5.2? By the way, I'm not going to entertain the "mythos-class" phrasing because I really don't think it's important. I don't believe Anthropic's take on it being the threshold towards the end of the world that their marketing insists it is.
    - baq 4mo ago
      DeepSeek v4 and GLM 5.2 are not Mythos-class, the capability uplift as measured is continuous but consequences are step functions.
      - deleted 4mo ago
        [deleted]
      - cassianoleal 4mo ago
        I didn't say they are. I did say I don't like the phrasing "Mythos-class" because it puts Mythos on a level I don't think it is.
        baq 4mo ago
        It is on a level above everything else for now, that’s enough to determine it’s quite literally in its own class. Anecdotally it is a good model, sir.
        cassianoleal 4mo ago
        It doesn't seem to be on a level above everything else, no. It seems to be a step increase in some areas and maybe even a decrease in others. Anectodally, DeepSeek V4 is a very good model as well, sir. I'm not calling anything V4-class because of that.
        baq 4mo ago
        I’ve been piloting frontier LLMs for as long as anyone outside of the labs and I just disagree. It is a tier above for some tasks (especially in my usage) and not a downgrade on anything I tried it on. This is enough for me to rank it higher; ymmv.
        cassianoleal 4mo ago
        Fair enough! I've only briefly tried it and it did seem quite capable for what I was doing, but not that much better than the Chinese models I've been mostly using. In any case, this [0] seems to paint a more reasonable picture than "it's much better than anything else at everything". [0] https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos-previews-cyber-capabilities https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos...

by baq 4mo ago

cassianoleal 4mo ago

> Why wouldn’t anyone give away frontier AI? They already are, to an extent. If we believe Amodei's nutjob take that Mythos/Fable are the end of the world in the wrong hands, we should have an open source Chinese model within 6-12 months that's already end-of-world level, so the cat is going to be way out of the bag long before the US labs go out of business.

baq 4mo ago
> should have an open source Chinese model within 6-12 months that's already end-of-world level that's the exact thing I'm talking about. I don't see why is half the people around here so sure that China will continue to release anything at all. they are releasing non-frontier models on a 6-month lag, yes, but the reasons why to release them are overshadowed by reasons to not do that for mythos-class models. IOW why would they give away a dual use technology just like that?
- cassianoleal 4mo ago
  > the reasons why to release them are overshadowed by reasons to not do that for mythos-class models Why? What are those reasons? How come they don't already exist for DeepSeek V4 or GLM-5.2? By the way, I'm not going to entertain the "mythos-class" phrasing because I really don't think it's important. I don't believe Anthropic's take on it being the threshold towards the end of the world that their marketing insists it is.
  - baq 4mo ago
    DeepSeek v4 and GLM 5.2 are not Mythos-class, the capability uplift as measured is continuous but consequences are step functions.
    - deleted 4mo ago
      [deleted]
    - cassianoleal 4mo ago
      I didn't say they are. I did say I don't like the phrasing "Mythos-class" because it puts Mythos on a level I don't think it is.
      - baq 4mo ago
        It is on a level above everything else for now, that’s enough to determine it’s quite literally in its own class. Anecdotally it is a good model, sir.
        cassianoleal 4mo ago
        It doesn't seem to be on a level above everything else, no. It seems to be a step increase in some areas and maybe even a decrease in others. Anectodally, DeepSeek V4 is a very good model as well, sir. I'm not calling anything V4-class because of that.
        baq 4mo ago
        I’ve been piloting frontier LLMs for as long as anyone outside of the labs and I just disagree. It is a tier above for some tasks (especially in my usage) and not a downgrade on anything I tried it on. This is enough for me to rank it higher; ymmv.
        cassianoleal 4mo ago
        Fair enough! I've only briefly tried it and it did seem quite capable for what I was doing, but not that much better than the Chinese models I've been mostly using. In any case, this [0] seems to paint a more reasonable picture than "it's much better than anything else at everything". [0] https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos-previews-cyber-capabilities https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos...