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The only reason I can see is because Amazon wanted something like this to happen. But I'm not sure what Amazon would gain from that, since they don't have their

by thayne 4mo ago

The only reason I can see is because Amazon wanted something like this to happen. But I'm not sure what Amazon would gain from that, since they don't have their own competing frontier models.

conradkay 4mo ago
My guess is that they liked the status quo with Project Glasswing and didn't want Fable to be public, especially if anyone is jailbreaking it into Mythos and using it for cyber But then it backfired spectacularly and now it seems they can't use Mythos currently
brianjking 4mo ago
...Not to mention that they're investors in Anthropic.
lumost 4mo ago
This is either a complete own goal by Amazon… a play to consolidate compute/model access. Will Chinese models be allowed on the market… at all? Will startups be banned from training models of equivalent capacity?
- gopher_space 4mo ago
  At this point would I be outsourcing my knowledge work or would I be entering self-exile?
carlossouza 4mo ago
Of course, Amazon wanted this to happen. They own 20% of Anthropic. Anthropic bleeds cash. They have to raise capital. There are only 2 ways: an IPO or follow-ons from existing investors. If the IPO gets delayed because of these restrictions, Anthropic will be forced to raise more capital from existing investors. And existing investors (Amazon) will end up owning more of Anthropic at a cheaper valuation.
- milch 4mo ago
  Why would they have launched Fable on Bedrock if they knew they were going to be shutting it down a day later?
  - carlossouza 4mo ago
    I'm just stating facts: - Amazon's CEO knew what he was doing and the possible consequences - Anthropic must raise cash, and there are only 2 ways: an IPO or follow-ons - If the IPO is blocked, existing investors will be able to increase their stake on Anthropic at a very attractive lower valuation - Amazon has 20% of Anthropic: so, they benefit from it
    - dbmnt 4mo ago
      "Amazon's CEO knew what he was doing" is not a fact. That's speculation. When it comes to highly technical, fast moving developments like frontier AI and blue team / red team perspectives, I could see any CEO getting out over their skis. Now mix in some incompetent Trump admin officials, including apparently Howard Lutnick. I am guessing many of these people don't understand the subject matter very well at all.
  - zaptheimpaler 4mo ago
    They would have no internally/externally defensible justification to stop the launch as they are partners/part-owners of Anthropic. They would have to let the rank-and-file keep moving on the Fable launch.
    - milch 4mo ago
      IIRC Anthropic models haven't all been available on day 1, so it does feel like a deliberate choice, especially since they are partners/part-owners like you say. No one would have bat an eye about some corporate PR thing "blah blah mythos is too powerful and too intelligent and so we've decided to focus our capacity on Opus 4.6/4.7/4.8 for now until we have the proper safeguards in place blah blah"
- 4mo ago
polski-g 4mo ago
Did it cross your mind that Amazon cares about the security of the United States and reported the jailbreak to protect it?

by thayne 4mo ago

The only reason I can see is because Amazon wanted something like this to happen. But I'm not sure what Amazon would gain from that, since they don't have their own competing frontier models.

conradkay 4mo ago

My guess is that they liked the status quo with Project Glasswing and didn't want Fable to be public, especially if anyone is jailbreaking it into Mythos and using it for cyber But then it backfired spectacularly and now it seems they can't use Mythos currently

brianjking 4mo ago

...Not to mention that they're investors in Anthropic.

lumost 4mo ago

This is either a complete own goal by Amazon… a play to consolidate compute/model access. Will Chinese models be allowed on the market… at all? Will startups be banned from training models of equivalent capacity?

gopher_space 4mo ago
At this point would I be outsourcing my knowledge work or would I be entering self-exile?

carlossouza 4mo ago

Of course, Amazon wanted this to happen. They own 20% of Anthropic. Anthropic bleeds cash. They have to raise capital. There are only 2 ways: an IPO or follow-ons from existing investors. If the IPO gets delayed because of these restrictions, Anthropic will be forced to raise more capital from existing investors. And existing investors (Amazon) will end up owning more of Anthropic at a cheaper valuation.

milch 4mo ago
Why would they have launched Fable on Bedrock if they knew they were going to be shutting it down a day later?
- carlossouza 4mo ago
  I'm just stating facts: - Amazon's CEO knew what he was doing and the possible consequences - Anthropic must raise cash, and there are only 2 ways: an IPO or follow-ons - If the IPO is blocked, existing investors will be able to increase their stake on Anthropic at a very attractive lower valuation - Amazon has 20% of Anthropic: so, they benefit from it
  - dbmnt 4mo ago
    "Amazon's CEO knew what he was doing" is not a fact. That's speculation. When it comes to highly technical, fast moving developments like frontier AI and blue team / red team perspectives, I could see any CEO getting out over their skis. Now mix in some incompetent Trump admin officials, including apparently Howard Lutnick. I am guessing many of these people don't understand the subject matter very well at all.
- zaptheimpaler 4mo ago
  They would have no internally/externally defensible justification to stop the launch as they are partners/part-owners of Anthropic. They would have to let the rank-and-file keep moving on the Fable launch.
  - milch 4mo ago
    IIRC Anthropic models haven't all been available on day 1, so it does feel like a deliberate choice, especially since they are partners/part-owners like you say. No one would have bat an eye about some corporate PR thing "blah blah mythos is too powerful and too intelligent and so we've decided to focus our capacity on Opus 4.6/4.7/4.8 for now until we have the proper safeguards in place blah blah"
4mo ago

polski-g 4mo ago

Did it cross your mind that Amazon cares about the security of the United States and reported the jailbreak to protect it?