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Amazon is a large Anthropic shareholder (>5% of the cap table). I think it’s impossible to interpret the actions of their executives here without considering t

by gen220 4mo ago

Amazon is a large Anthropic shareholder (>5% of the cap table). I think it’s impossible to interpret the actions of their executives here without considering this information.

SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
I agree! The concerns must have been very serious indeed to overcome Amazon's strong incentives to not bring them up and let Anthropic keep pulling in the revenue from their new frontier model.
- aaronrobinson 4mo ago
  Begs the question why they didn’t present that info to Anthropic directly and if they did why they didn’t act
  - SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
    It does. Anthropic mentions (https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access) they consider jailbreaks that "provide no Mythos-specific uplift" to be minor findings; perhaps they couldn't agree on what kinds of capabilities were unlocked by the jailbreak Amazon found.
    - tiahura 4mo ago
      Very questionable and tone deaf response from Anthropic. Irrelevant whether it’s specific to Mythos or Haiku. Dario seems to be looking for an exit.
      - SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
        As a guy who's historically been a big Anthropic defender, I should acknowledge that I agree with what you're saying and expected a much better response. I have no idea what the underlying jailbreak is or if they're right it's not a big deal, but if you take the power of modern AI seriously, you should be pretty sympathetic to the government's actions here even if you think they got it wrong in this case. (Could the explanation be that Anthropic doesn't take the power of modern AI seriously, and they only pretend to as a marketing strategy towards people like me? I can't rule out the possibility entirely, but I'm still pretty confident it can't be as simple as a deliberate IPO pump and dump, there's too much that doesn't make sense from that angle.)
        tiahura 4mo ago
        I think the explanation is just ordinary arrogance. “AI is too dangerous for them to develop. We, of course, know what we’re doing.”
- ezekg 4mo ago
  Or they're trying to hype up an investment...
  - SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
    That doesn't really make sense. If Amazon wanted to build hype, wouldn't they have talked publicly about this? What's the point of working hard on a hype strategy and then delivering it only in private to government officials?
    - throwaway85825 4mo ago
      The export ban exists to hype the capabilities of the much more expensive but only marginally better model.
      - SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
        The model that they can't currently sell at all because they don't have the capability to limit it to US persons?
        throwaway85825 4mo ago
        Opus was already rate limited. If the capacity isn't there its better just used for hype.
- margalabargala 4mo ago
  That's one potential interpretation. There are many others. Hyping an investment, as mentioned. If they have continued access, being able to use the tool when others cannot to get ahead. Amazon's incentives are not so clear or simple as your first interpretation. It's important to think about these things beyond a moment's glance. With practice you will improve!
yogthos 4mo ago
Amazon has a ton of internal politics just like any other large organization. It's entirely possible there's a faction that is trying to kneecap another faction within Amazon with this.
- skeptic_ai 4mo ago
  When you fire the bottom x % you have incentives to kneecap your “colleagues” to preserve your own job
ambicapter 4mo ago
To me it reads like the execs at Amazon told the feds about some capability they were excited about, and the government officials either didn't understand it fully or overreacted to some small feature, panicked and went to ban it.

by gen220 4mo ago

Amazon is a large Anthropic shareholder (>5% of the cap table). I think it’s impossible to interpret the actions of their executives here without considering this information.

SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago

I agree! The concerns must have been very serious indeed to overcome Amazon's strong incentives to not bring them up and let Anthropic keep pulling in the revenue from their new frontier model.

aaronrobinson 4mo ago
Begs the question why they didn’t present that info to Anthropic directly and if they did why they didn’t act
- SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
  It does. Anthropic mentions (https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access) they consider jailbreaks that "provide no Mythos-specific uplift" to be minor findings; perhaps they couldn't agree on what kinds of capabilities were unlocked by the jailbreak Amazon found.
  - tiahura 4mo ago
    Very questionable and tone deaf response from Anthropic. Irrelevant whether it’s specific to Mythos or Haiku. Dario seems to be looking for an exit.
    - SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
      As a guy who's historically been a big Anthropic defender, I should acknowledge that I agree with what you're saying and expected a much better response. I have no idea what the underlying jailbreak is or if they're right it's not a big deal, but if you take the power of modern AI seriously, you should be pretty sympathetic to the government's actions here even if you think they got it wrong in this case. (Could the explanation be that Anthropic doesn't take the power of modern AI seriously, and they only pretend to as a marketing strategy towards people like me? I can't rule out the possibility entirely, but I'm still pretty confident it can't be as simple as a deliberate IPO pump and dump, there's too much that doesn't make sense from that angle.)
      - tiahura 4mo ago
        I think the explanation is just ordinary arrogance. “AI is too dangerous for them to develop. We, of course, know what we’re doing.”
ezekg 4mo ago
Or they're trying to hype up an investment...
- SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
  That doesn't really make sense. If Amazon wanted to build hype, wouldn't they have talked publicly about this? What's the point of working hard on a hype strategy and then delivering it only in private to government officials?
  - throwaway85825 4mo ago
    The export ban exists to hype the capabilities of the much more expensive but only marginally better model.
    - SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
      The model that they can't currently sell at all because they don't have the capability to limit it to US persons?
      - throwaway85825 4mo ago
        Opus was already rate limited. If the capacity isn't there its better just used for hype.
margalabargala 4mo ago
That's one potential interpretation. There are many others. Hyping an investment, as mentioned. If they have continued access, being able to use the tool when others cannot to get ahead. Amazon's incentives are not so clear or simple as your first interpretation. It's important to think about these things beyond a moment's glance. With practice you will improve!

yogthos 4mo ago

Amazon has a ton of internal politics just like any other large organization. It's entirely possible there's a faction that is trying to kneecap another faction within Amazon with this.

skeptic_ai 4mo ago
When you fire the bottom x % you have incentives to kneecap your “colleagues” to preserve your own job

ambicapter 4mo ago

To me it reads like the execs at Amazon told the feds about some capability they were excited about, and the government officials either didn't understand it fully or overreacted to some small feature, panicked and went to ban it.