4 ms·
> The first is to self host. You buy the machine, run open source models locally, and pay nothing per token after that. Power is not free. What I’ve found is
by isatty 4mo ago
> The first is to self host. You buy the machine, run open source models locally, and pay nothing per token after that.
Power is not free.
What I’ve found is that you’re basically paying a premium for privacy, and that’s worth it for me.
- mxmxnxnsndndndj 4mo ago[dead]
- enraged_camel 4mo ago>> Power is not free. There's actually an interesting thought experiment here: if it takes you a full day to build something that AI would otherwise build in a day, do you end up using more power, or less? What is the break-even point, purely from a power consumption perspective?
- axus 4mo agoWhat would you do for the rest of the day, power off your devices and go for a long bike ride?
- enraged_camel 4mo agoSpeaking personally: yes. That's literally what I'm planning to do this afternoon because it's noon and I'm already done with the coding tasks I had on my plate today.
- dofm 4mo agoLuckily the future is absolutely going to be that star trek one where technological abundance means we are all wealthy and have free time to develop personally, and not the future where all the money bubbles up into the hands of a thin-skinned malignant narcissist who wants to play with launching rockets and provoking racial violence /s
- dofm 4mo agoIf an identical task takes a day on both sides, then the human route uses less energy, surely. Brains are thousands or maybe even millions of times more fuel-efficient than computers and you are alive for the whole day either way, right? You probably eat about the same even. The reason executives think AI is more efficient is that it more space efficient than a human and doesn't demand to be paid or work only a set number of hours. Everything with computing is more efficient if you resent having to give money to other humans. If they could just not have you be alive when they don't need you, it'd possibly be different. Even though I think at a typical British freelance rate and a truly unsubsidised token price, the AI is possibly more expensive than me. And as a freelancer, from their perspective I really am not alive until they need me. (This is what it often feels like) The reality is the human and the AI aren't used to build the same things anyway so it's a comparison you can't really make.
- evrydayhustling 4mo agoBrains are efficient, but civilized humans aren't. In the USA, adults consume at a rate of about 10kW -- only 1-2% of that being the human's metabolism, the rest being HVAC, electrical devices, etc. For comparison, a modern frontier model like Gemini 3.5 Pro consumes about 15kW -- so only about 1.5x the fully loaded human. In an 8h workday, that model would crank through ~80M tokens (~$5k at API prices). That's ~4 major refactors of a 10k LOC codebase, so probably not a very realistic comparison to a single human dev. I think a more useful comparison, based on my experience, is that an engineer with AI support can get one 8h day's worth of unassisted work done in 1h. So, the 25 kWh consumed during collaboration (conservatively assuming I keep the GPU hot for the whole hour) frees up the remaining 70 kWh I'll draw down for the day to be spent in some other way.
- Yoric 4mo agoI'm assuming that you need to feed the human being (i.e. you) regardless of whether you use that human being for writing code or not. So, by this metric, there is simply no breaking even point. The cost of human + AI is always going to be higher than the cost of human.
- antasvara 4mo agoStudies on grandmaster chess players indicate that at most you burn 10% more calories when engaged in deep thought than when you're at rest. So the energy "attributable" to an hour of knowledge work is like 10 calories (average sedentary calorie burn is like 80-100 per hour; add a max of 10% for the thinking gets you 8-10 calories). A pound of potatoes is like a buck and is about 320 calories. So you're looking at like 3 cents an hour at most to cover that energy burn. It's definitely even less; I certainly don't think as hard as a grandmaster chess player. Then, assume power costs 20 cents per kilowatt hour (US avwrage) To match the human 3 cents per hour, you need an average of 150 watts of power drawn per hour. That's in the range of a budget graphics card, but not much past there. However, if you sleep instead of sitting around, you can probably make AI cost competitive. Sleeping drops your metabolic rate by more, and lying down in bed (as opposed to sitting) also reduces calorie burn. Combined, you can reduce your burn by like 30 calories an hour. At the new 9 cents per hour human cost, you can afford to run a higher end graphics card at ~450 watts per hour. That puts you in RTX 3090 range.
- Barbing 4mo agoExcellent analysis, and > However, if you sleep instead of sitting around, you can probably make AI cost competitive. important consideration.
- antasvara 4mo agoYeah, it gets weird when you start trying to compare human versus AI energy demands because you can turn a computer off, but you can't really turn a human off. Most studies indicate that humans can do 3-4 hours of high-level knowledge work in a day. An AI is not limited by these restrictions; it could do 24 straight hours of work if you wanted it to. So do we count all the energy the human burned for the remaining 20 hours of the day and allocate it to those 4 hours? Or are we just comparing "energy spent working on the task" for the AI and the human?
- Barbing 4mo ago:D The jokes are aside now! Maybe we gotta include all 24, since no one will ever* get the 4 without the 20 of sleep/eat/relax. *least probably not long term with FTEs I assume Though for employers who send employees home it should be OK to ignore what employees do outside of work…
- keeda 4mo agoThe question needs to be tweaked a little: it's not just human vs LLM, it's human vs human + LLM, which makes the calculations easier (and more correct because LLMs don't currently operate independently.) I've run the napkin math, and assuming LLMs make humans even 5% more efficient, the power and water savings over time are significant, largely because humans are so resource intensive: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46984659 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46984659
- asdff 4mo agoThere is no break even point, you always come out ahead doing it yourself because your caloric burn is the same for the day whether you build the tool or AI builds the tool. Only way the AI example might avoid that is if it tells you to jump off a cliff before starting the compute run.
- warumdarum 4mo agoActually if you have solar, it kind of is.. so prIvAt AI compute gets defacto cheaper during the day?
- reactordev 4mo agoIf you have solar, it is not, because you have battery and equipment degradation from cycle charging, c’mon man… I would agree with you if you said it was vastly cheaper overall (with the initial equipment investment amortized over time) compared to The Power Company. In many states, even if you are generating electricity and selling it back to the power company, they still gonna charge you normal rates of usage because greed. If you go off grid, you have bigger things to worry about than how to power your AI cluster. It’s manageable enough if you have land but that’s in scarce supply.
- iluvcommunism 4mo ago[dead]
- dnautics 4mo ago> if you have solar, it is not, because you have battery and equipment degradation from cycle charging, c’mon man… no, the rate of that is pretty independent of use. unless you live in a place where selling energy back rules are designed to screw the solar owner (California)
- reactordev 4mo agoCalifornia, Arizona, Texas, most of the southern states…
- pylotlight 4mo agoMelbourne Australia feed in rates have also been significantly reduced since the start.
- dofm 4mo agoLuckily I needed a new laptop and I bought an M1 Max secondhand from a friend quite cheaply because it was fast enough to recompile something else I am interested in. So for me, there is no additional hardware cost; it was acquired in replacement. I run the AI models at home on this kit because I want to; I'll use openrouter if I need to. I accept the economics of this article are right. But I feel so incredibly sad about this outcome that we're now just to be people caretaking machines that do the job we loved that actually I am not sure that exercising this nuance is going to matter in the long term. It turns out it is a mistake I have made in my life — now really unfixable because I am a bit too old — to believe that I will always find enough fulfilment in my work to offset the absence of personal fulfilment elsewhere; I have always enjoyed being able to help people directly by doing a thing I love and I am good at, and that has kept away the sadness of finding it difficult to build a conventional family life to enjoy. I assumed I would always find some new way to find that enjoyment, but even the slim enjoyment from being able to explore this stuff on my own kit in my own terms will not be enough if the pendulum does not swing back towards human effort. It is a dismal world we have made for ourselves. Lately I have found myself dreading growing too much older in it.
- Barbing 4mo agoYou sound awesome. Just venting? (b/c curious if friends can fill your heart abundantly, & we know we're never too old to make new friends!) > dreading Even avoiding political headlines (OK, at least articles), plenty of cause for dread, so I keep re-focusing to avoid despair. Easier said than done innit! Can't kill my hope for the future though. One day, all the good stuff shall prevail (morality, intelligence, love & kindness)... maybe not permanently, but a Star Trek future is there somewhere (& they had their troubles but it wouldn't be a dreadful situation overall). Sharing with you in case it's even slightly contagious!
- dofm 4mo agoI must say I am not quite just venting. I have been struggling severely with burnout for a couple of years and as I work to fix it by myself ultimately, and get back who I was, the awful thing is finding out that the industry is so utterly and completely different anyway. So in my fight back I decided that I needed to re-centre myself; learn how these tools can help me personally return to productivity, try to get that deep self-teaching back, reanimate myself consistent with my principles, learn and make things. Take it head on without losing who I was. I haven’t been a “big projects” developer since the dot com era (when I worked on some pretty cutting edge things). I have been a small projects developer: building things that matter for small businesses and schools, supporting designers, teaching people stuff along the way. I have been productive, I have very diverse skills and I have been valued. What I have come back to is an industry that has abandoned craft principles or discussions about developer discipline, code quality, efficiency, robustness, resilience, etc., and fully organised itself into a headlong rush towards a kind of nihilistic Metropolis machine-cranking. And because I am a freelancer (more of a contractor in practice), my competition is already the machine itself. I am one of those developers who is eliminated in the last sentence of the article. I am not needed on big projects and in many small jobs — the kind a burned out small business developer needs to get back to work — I will never be needed again. It is very odd, trying to learn how to understand the tools that others are using to make you irrelevant. And when all your friends are obsessed with AI, either clients desperate to use it or friends (in the creative culture I am surrounded by away from work) angry and resentful of it, I find I have just nobody to talk this through with. In many ways I would rather not have returned to actively using HN (because articles and despair, and because being by oneself it’s possible to get drawn into online arguments) but in recent months I have noticed in the comments that perhaps this is the only place where these discussions among “craft” developers are happening at all. I am over fifty and safe financially, and if my last day were for some horrible reason out of my control to be tomorrow, that’s OK; I have enjoyed my life and on good days I do still enjoy it. I have friends who I see when I can get myself out of the house, I have distractions I can enjoy, all that. I am now much more troubled by what it is going to be like to continue to live it. I struggle every day to see where I have value, especially as burnout has left me with less energy to spend. Like I say, I am safe and very aware I have been blessed; it’s not a cry for help. But I think a lot of us who found value in our work wonder what the fuck we can do to keep ourselves alive the way we were. ETA: holy shit that was an essay.
- rambojohnson 4mo agowork at a cafe.
- isatty 4mo agoYou want me to drag my AI rig to a cafe?
- dnautics 4mo ago> Power is not free. its ~free if you have home solar.
- r0fl 4mo agoSolar panels are free and never break and have an unlimited life expectancy?
- krzyk 4mo agoSolar panel breakage doesn't depend on a graphics card.
- NegativeK 4mo agoSolar power is not free. You can decide to not fix the panel that was being used to power a GPU. Or you could sell the power back. Or you could put it in a battery bank for when the sun is down. Or, if none of those are the case and you just have excess power that's useless for anything but a GPU, then you prepaid for the GPU. I love that we have solar panels, but we weren't gifted them. Using power has a cost.
- TurdF3rguson 4mo agoIt's actually common to be in that situation where the grid is paying pennies on the dollar and you have extra generation. Most grid-tie systems are in that boat. Suddenly you find yourself looking for something to spend power on so it doesn't go to waste.
- jrm4 4mo agoI'm in Florida and am already using AC, so if not "free", definitely "negligible."
- throwaway219450 4mo agoAlso, I would anticipate at least a 5 year lifespan for a current generation card. The 3090 is still respectable simply because it has 24GB of RAM which, for years, has been the limiting factor for ML at home. If you got a 6000, sure it’s going to cost 7-8k, but the resale value is likely to be very good. Even the 3090 is 50%+ of RRP still. And if you’re not doing LLMs, it’s an interesting value proposition for “classic” CNN vision model training. You can fit enormous batch sizes on 96 GB. The biggest reason to upgrade is perf/watt has about doubled (eg 4000 pro Blackwell is half the 3090 for similar). People tend to assume the capex is thrown away but as we’ve seen with RAM, don’t be so sure you won’t be able flip it if you need to.
- datadrivenangel 4mo agoAnd paying more for hardware costs extra! I ran the numbers and outside of privacy it doesn't make sense. But I did it anyways. [0] 0 - https://www.williamangel.net/blog/2026/05/17/offline-llm-energy-use.html https://www.williamangel.net/blog/2026/05/17/offline-llm-ene...
- sbochins 4mo agoIf you paid for solar, this is less of an issue. I also don’t worry so much about running my AC.
- tomalbrc 4mo agoWhat makes you think that paying gives you privacy?