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SpaceX already blown through a number of "... but this cannot be!" forecasts. Would not discount them easily.

by d_silin 4mo ago

MPSimmons 4mo ago
SpaceX's entire history is full of, "there's no way they'll ever do X", followed by them doing it. They definitely haven't hit all of their goals, but I don't think anything they want to do is impossible, just really difficult.
- testing22321 4mo ago
  “Here at SpaceX we specialize in making the impossible merely late.” -Elon
- cycomanic 4mo ago
  Like what? Seriously, nobody thought shouting rockets into space was impossible. Landing a rocket again nobody had thought it impossible. Sure they brought down prices, again nobody thought it impossible. The question is actually is it desirable. Rocket launches are pretty much the worst one can do in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, but somehow all technerds are falling all over themselves how great it is.
  - damnitbuilds 4mo ago
    "Landing a rocket again nobody had thought it impossible." Erm, ESA thought it was a dream: "Twenty years ago, before SpaceX had launched a single rocket, Richard Bowles, a sales director of the European Arianespace launch consortium, said SpaceX’s ambition to launch, recover and reuse rockets, cutting the price of launches in half, was a dream. ‘SpaceX primarily sems to be selling a dream. Which is good, we should all dream,’ he said. ‘I think reusability is a dream… How am I going to respond to a dream?… First of all you don’t wake people up. They have to wake up on their own… They’re not supermen. Whatever they can do, we can do.’" https://spectator.com/article/spacex-has-put-europe-to-shame/ https://spectator.com/article/spacex-has-put-europe-to-shame...
    - deleted 4mo ago
      [deleted]
    - damnitbuilds 4mo ago
      [flagged]
  - expedition32 4mo ago
    Yeah but with Starlink I can watch YouTube on a remote Pacific island! (I never visit remote Pacific islands).
  - MPSimmons 4mo ago
    I didn't say people claimed it was impossible, I claimed that they said SpaceX would never do it. And that's _still_ a pretty common claim.
a_shovel 4mo ago
Skeptics said SpaceX would fail, but it succeeded. Therefore, skepticism in general is wrong and SpaceX will have an annual revenue of $11 quadrillion by 2030.
kilroy123 4mo ago
I was thinking about this lately as well. If you break down their plan of launching a LOT of solar panels into space and strapping a GPU cluster to it. It's not _that_ crazy now. Prices for solar panels have dropped 90% in the last 10 years. Price per kilo to Low Earth Orbit has dropped ~50% in the last 10 years. SpaceX's entire plan is to keep dropping both of these prices down even more with massive solar panel / starship factories.
- stephc_int13 4mo ago
  Not the same solar panels. As with most equipment, the constraints are very different in space/orbit, and the suppliers are not the same.
- xboxnolifes 4mo ago
  Well outside my field, but I was under the impression that getting the energy into the GPU (solar) was not the problem. The problem is getting the heat out. It takes a lot of surface area to radiate out the heat that GPUs produce. Maybe it ends up economical, but just having it in space adds in a bunch of challenges, not least that once it's up there you can't send in a technician to troubleshoot. And if solar panels drop another 90%, why not just slap them on earth?
  - hackernudes 4mo ago
    > if solar panels drop another 90%, why not just slap them on earth? Because you need batteries then.
- qaq 4mo ago
  it is crazy
- einpoklum 4mo ago
  "solar panel / starship factories" Oh, sure, both kinds of factories are legitimately slashable as they are totally the same thing. Pretty much. Right? :-(
- amluto 4mo ago
SecretDreams 4mo ago
Just this morning, someone told me SpaceX valuation proponents couldn't possibly be more obtuse; yet, this thread has blown through those expectations.

SpaceX already blown through a number of "... but this cannot be!" forecasts. Would not discount them easily.

by d_silin 4mo ago

SpaceX already blown through a number of "... but this cannot be!" forecasts. Would not discount them easily.

SpaceX's entire history is full of, "there's no way they'll ever do X", followed by them doing it. They definitely haven't hit all of their goals, but I don't think anything they want to do is impossible, just really difficult.

testing22321 4mo ago
“Here at SpaceX we specialize in making the impossible merely late.” -Elon
cycomanic 4mo ago
Like what? Seriously, nobody thought shouting rockets into space was impossible. Landing a rocket again nobody had thought it impossible. Sure they brought down prices, again nobody thought it impossible. The question is actually is it desirable. Rocket launches are pretty much the worst one can do in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, but somehow all technerds are falling all over themselves how great it is.
- damnitbuilds 4mo ago
  "Landing a rocket again nobody had thought it impossible." Erm, ESA thought it was a dream: "Twenty years ago, before SpaceX had launched a single rocket, Richard Bowles, a sales director of the European Arianespace launch consortium, said SpaceX’s ambition to launch, recover and reuse rockets, cutting the price of launches in half, was a dream. ‘SpaceX primarily sems to be selling a dream. Which is good, we should all dream,’ he said. ‘I think reusability is a dream… How am I going to respond to a dream?… First of all you don’t wake people up. They have to wake up on their own… They’re not supermen. Whatever they can do, we can do.’" https://spectator.com/article/spacex-has-put-europe-to-shame/ https://spectator.com/article/spacex-has-put-europe-to-shame...
  - deleted 4mo ago
    [deleted]
  - damnitbuilds 4mo ago
    [flagged]
- expedition32 4mo ago
  Yeah but with Starlink I can watch YouTube on a remote Pacific island! (I never visit remote Pacific islands).
- MPSimmons 4mo ago
  I didn't say people claimed it was impossible, I claimed that they said SpaceX would never do it. And that's _still_ a pretty common claim.

a_shovel 4mo ago

Skeptics said SpaceX would fail, but it succeeded. Therefore, skepticism in general is wrong and SpaceX will have an annual revenue of $11 quadrillion by 2030.

kilroy123 4mo ago

I was thinking about this lately as well. If you break down their plan of launching a LOT of solar panels into space and strapping a GPU cluster to it. It's not _that_ crazy now. Prices for solar panels have dropped 90% in the last 10 years. Price per kilo to Low Earth Orbit has dropped ~50% in the last 10 years. SpaceX's entire plan is to keep dropping both of these prices down even more with massive solar panel / starship factories.

stephc_int13 4mo ago
Not the same solar panels. As with most equipment, the constraints are very different in space/orbit, and the suppliers are not the same.
xboxnolifes 4mo ago
Well outside my field, but I was under the impression that getting the energy into the GPU (solar) was not the problem. The problem is getting the heat out. It takes a lot of surface area to radiate out the heat that GPUs produce. Maybe it ends up economical, but just having it in space adds in a bunch of challenges, not least that once it's up there you can't send in a technician to troubleshoot. And if solar panels drop another 90%, why not just slap them on earth?
- hackernudes 4mo ago
  > if solar panels drop another 90%, why not just slap them on earth? Because you need batteries then.
qaq 4mo ago
it is crazy
einpoklum 4mo ago
"solar panel / starship factories" Oh, sure, both kinds of factories are legitimately slashable as they are totally the same thing. Pretty much. Right? :-(
amluto 4mo ago

SecretDreams 4mo ago

Just this morning, someone told me SpaceX valuation proponents couldn't possibly be more obtuse; yet, this thread has blown through those expectations.