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It's pretty likely that inference will get substantially cheaper. His argument is that for these companies to be profitable some very major and (pre 2022) unpre
by DonsDiscountGas 4mo ago
It's pretty likely that inference will get substantially cheaper. His argument is that for these companies to be profitable some very major and (pre 2022) unprecedented things have to happen. Which I tend to agree with, except I think they will happen, seeing as how they've been happening for a few years.
- overgard 4mo agoExcept inference has been getting more expensive, not less
- CuriouslyC 4mo agoInference has been going down in price on a cost/intelligence basis. If you don't need the smartest model, there are plenty of good Chinese models that are dirt cheap.
- GolfPopper 4mo agoDoesn't that sort-of make one of Zitron's core points? "Chinese models are dirt cheap" isn't going to do anything good for the return the investments in OpenAI and Anthropic demand.
- CuriouslyC 4mo agoIt supports his point that they're planning to massively overbuild compute, which was already well supported by the financials. A lot of that planned compute buildout can be walked back though, and the technology is unquestionably useful in moderation, so it's not the catastrophe he suggests, and his hyperbole is part of what makes me dislike him even if there are elements of his foundational argument I agree with.
- lenkite 4mo agoAren't these Chinese models also heavily subsidized at the moment ? They are running off govt money which also has a cut-off date by 2028-30.
- baq 4mo agoIt’s been steadily getting cheaper per token per problems solved even if you don’t define ‘unsolvable => infinity token cost’
- zmmmmm 4mo agocheck out DeepSeek V4 Pro .... this is where the threat vector comes from IMHO. If anything is triggering a rush to IPO imho it's seeing these cheap / free models on the horizon that are "good enough" for 80% of the core use case supporting their valuation.
- anthonypasq 4mo agoAmerican AI companies are charging more, that doesnt mean inference isnt getting cheaper. idk why this is so hard for people to understand.