4 ms·

A lot of people are emotionally unprepared for a world where the music doesn't stop.

raducu 5mo ago
> A lot of people are emotionally unprepared for a world where the music doesn't stop. I've been wrong before. However, when was the last time this business model made sense -- that facebook, SpaceX and others, all just pivot from their market niche to general purpose AI datacenter providers. How on Earth does this make sense? What happens in a few years when DeepSeek runs on the chinese chips like the Huawei Ascend at a fraction of the cost ? These are all very high value added companies going into comodity AI hosting and they're all going to make a killing?
- treis 5mo ago
  >What happens in a few years when DeepSeek runs on the chinese chips like the Huawei Ascend at a fraction of the cost ? Nvidia goes back to being a 100 billion dollar business and everyone else reaps the benefits of cheap tokens.
  - doctorwho42 5mo ago
    So Nvidia will lose 94.5% of their market cap, and you think that will not effect anything beyond AI?
    - trollbridge 5mo ago
      There's an assumption here that Nvidia will stop innovating.
      - mlnj 5mo ago
        The only assumption I am making is that NVIDIA and others dig thier claws into western governments and make decade long contracts for even greater surveillance. Trillions of dollars worth.
    - treis 5mo ago
      Not any more than when one company beats out another.
    - sethops1 5mo ago
      A few thousand recently minted millionaires might become former-millionaires if they decide to HODL. Construction at these Manhattan-sized data centers might slow or stop. The tech industry might go back to solving problems for real people. I'm not really seeing a substantial downside.
- johnsmith1840 5mo ago
  Energy and datacenter scale. US is a near monopoly of this pairing. A crash will result in the removal of the fluff and ocerpricing of it all but the stance is beyond strong. Unless China outcompetes Nvidea AND TSMC AND magically gets 4x cheaper energy they are in a much weaker stance for the long haul.
  - raducu 5mo ago
    > AND magically gets 4x cheaper energy they are in a much weaker stance for the long haul. By energy you mean electricity,the nuclear, solar and hydro-- the kind China has installed new 2TW capacity over the last decade while US installed 0.2TW capacity in the same time?
    - johnsmith1840 5mo ago
      Oil is king
reducesuffering 5mo ago
The level of denialism when faced to confront hard realities of the world around us never ceases to surprise me. Alas AI capabilities continue to rip through expectations and the next goalposts are moved.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
tsunamifury 5mo ago
Lines very rarely go straight for forever, but still often longer than expected.
gopher_space 5mo ago
Unprepared for a world that’s replaced French peasantry with strapping an Xbox to your face.
cgh 5mo ago
“It’s different this time”
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]

> A lot of people are emotionally unprepared for a world where the music doesn't stop. I've been wrong before. However, when was the last time this business model made sense -- that facebook, SpaceX and others, all just pivot from their market niche to general purpose AI datacenter providers. How on Earth does this make sense? What happens in a few years when DeepSeek runs on the chinese chips like the Huawei Ascend at a fraction of the cost ? These are all very high value added companies going into comodity AI hosting and they're all going to make a killing?

treis 5mo ago
>What happens in a few years when DeepSeek runs on the chinese chips like the Huawei Ascend at a fraction of the cost ? Nvidia goes back to being a 100 billion dollar business and everyone else reaps the benefits of cheap tokens.
- doctorwho42 5mo ago
  So Nvidia will lose 94.5% of their market cap, and you think that will not effect anything beyond AI?
  - trollbridge 5mo ago
    There's an assumption here that Nvidia will stop innovating.
    - mlnj 5mo ago
      The only assumption I am making is that NVIDIA and others dig thier claws into western governments and make decade long contracts for even greater surveillance. Trillions of dollars worth.
  - treis 5mo ago
    Not any more than when one company beats out another.
  - sethops1 5mo ago
    A few thousand recently minted millionaires might become former-millionaires if they decide to HODL. Construction at these Manhattan-sized data centers might slow or stop. The tech industry might go back to solving problems for real people. I'm not really seeing a substantial downside.
johnsmith1840 5mo ago
Energy and datacenter scale. US is a near monopoly of this pairing. A crash will result in the removal of the fluff and ocerpricing of it all but the stance is beyond strong. Unless China outcompetes Nvidea AND TSMC AND magically gets 4x cheaper energy they are in a much weaker stance for the long haul.
- raducu 5mo ago
  > AND magically gets 4x cheaper energy they are in a much weaker stance for the long haul. By energy you mean electricity,the nuclear, solar and hydro-- the kind China has installed new 2TW capacity over the last decade while US installed 0.2TW capacity in the same time?
  - johnsmith1840 5mo ago
    Oil is king

reducesuffering 5mo ago

The level of denialism when faced to confront hard realities of the world around us never ceases to surprise me. Alas AI capabilities continue to rip through expectations and the next goalposts are moved.

deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]

tsunamifury 5mo ago

Lines very rarely go straight for forever, but still often longer than expected.

gopher_space 5mo ago

Unprepared for a world that’s replaced French peasantry with strapping an Xbox to your face.

cgh 5mo ago

“It’s different this time”

deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]