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Which, again, benefits the wealthy and well-informed and well-connected. The suckers who have their retirement savings in some kind of index fund because all t
by SwellJoe 5mo ago
Which, again, benefits the wealthy and well-informed and well-connected.
The suckers who have their retirement savings in some kind of index fund because all the experts have been saying, "Buy index ETFs and forget about it" for decades are gonna get fleeced, and the wealthiest get wealthier.
- rnewme 5mo agoWhat to do then, if "Boogleheads" are wrong?
- SwellJoe 5mo agoBogleheads aren't wrong, historically. At least, not in the general sense that buying index funds and mostly forgetting about it is smarter than trying to beat the market with individual stock picks and timing the market. But, that philosophy came about in an era when there were protections for small investors that prevented the richest man on earth from dipping into your retirement fund to make himself even richer. I don't know how to be a smart investor when the game is so thoroughly rigged for a handful of billionaires.
- im3w1l 5mo agoI think the way to adjust the boglehead philosophy for this scenario is to construct a shadow index which would be the same as the normal index except with the grifts removed or at least underweighted. And then buy stock to track the shadow index.
- SwellJoe 5mo agoI assume not all indexes will make this deal with the devil, as Nasdaq is doing. At least, not immediately. But, given how lax regulation has become and how corruption and lies from the biggest companies has become commonplace, I have to assume it will be harder to not let Elon Musk have a taste of everything just because he's too rich for anyone to ever say no to him.
- chadgpt3 5mo agoPerhaps a return to first principles: a smart investment is an asset that generates value. For example I have a powerful PC - that is a smart investment, and not only because I bought lots of RAM before the RAM shortage. Others might have a farm tractor and land, or a restaurant building and tables and chairs and fridges. A house is a smart investment for almost anyone (problem is they're too expensive to be worth it). A car, if your city isn't walkable or your job involves carrying equipment around. A sound system if you own a nightclub.
- xienze 5mo agoI suppose everyone reading this thread counts as "well-informed" then, right? All I have to do is move my 401k into the bond-heavy fund right now and then back into the stock-heavy one when everything craters is what I'm hearing. It's what you're doing, right?
- eru 5mo agoIf you are subject to capital gains taxes, this would likely be a bad idea? (Though I have no clue how American 401k work in this regard.)
- bluecalm 5mo agoYou are giving up equity premium for the time till everything settles. You will also not know when that is. It's going to be more like a long term ticking bomb that may take years to detonate.
- xienze 5mo agoYears? The way people are talking in this thread it's all an AI exit scam, which shouldn't take years to play out. It's a popping bubble, remember?
- bluecalm 5mo agoYeah it's years because they will slowly unload it to entities that are forced to buy (and as they do those entities will be forced to buy more). If you have money invested in those ETFs I think you may want to pay a bit more attention rather than making sarcastic comments unless you want to end up with 5%+ of your portfolio being invested in hopium by the end of 2028. The threat is to end up with the bag, not that the bag explodes this month or the next.