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In the big 2026, everything certain people worried about with superintelligence came to fruition and they were vindicated. The people closest to ASI are indicat

In the big 2026, everything certain people worried about with superintelligence came to fruition and they were vindicated. The people closest to ASI are indicating recursive self improvement is imminent, the smartest engineers in the labs themselves are autonomously using agents to develop and improve the models. The arms race is evident. NVDA is the world's most valuable company determined by the worlds' collective wisdom of those with skin-in-the-game. If there exists a path of runaway superintelligence, the trajectory we've experienced has been following it to a tee. Their predictive power was affirmed. All the "AI is a nothingburger" predictions of the last decade, including many here even in the last year, have aged incredibly poorly.

AndrewKemendo 4mo ago
Nobody cares what we (people who have been working on AGI a long time) think. We were dismissed as cranks before and now we’re just ignored by whomever is promising the most money to investors. So, par for the course. Everyone in AI has lived through all the cycles so far so this is just the biggest one yet.
polytely 4mo ago
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- SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
  I don't follow that argument at all. Many people who claim they're concerned about the end of the world think that the one sliver of hope we have is that the specific people in charge of modern AI research take existential concerns seriously. Even if you expect that won't be enough to save us, it could hardly help the situation to replace them with other people who are less sympathetic to and probably radicalized against existential concerns.
- reducesuffering 4mo ago
  It has been frequently discussed amongst Less-Wrong / "doomers", especially after the Sam Altman home attack, why violence won't solve the coming problem with unaligned ASI. If you're actually curious, here's a good summary: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/2043601524815716866 https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/2043601524815716866

AndrewKemendo 4mo ago

Nobody cares what we (people who have been working on AGI a long time) think. We were dismissed as cranks before and now we’re just ignored by whomever is promising the most money to investors. So, par for the course. Everyone in AI has lived through all the cycles so far so this is just the biggest one yet.

polytely 4mo ago

[flagged]

SpicyLemonZest 4mo ago
I don't follow that argument at all. Many people who claim they're concerned about the end of the world think that the one sliver of hope we have is that the specific people in charge of modern AI research take existential concerns seriously. Even if you expect that won't be enough to save us, it could hardly help the situation to replace them with other people who are less sympathetic to and probably radicalized against existential concerns.
reducesuffering 4mo ago
It has been frequently discussed amongst Less-Wrong / "doomers", especially after the Sam Altman home attack, why violence won't solve the coming problem with unaligned ASI. If you're actually curious, here's a good summary: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/2043601524815716866 https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/2043601524815716866