4 ms·

You can have two thoughts at the same time. It's good that Iran is teaching USA and Israel a lesson, while Iran (also) being bad guys.

by lawn 4mo ago

hasperdi 4mo ago
Unfortunately they'll learn nothing. The rest of the world however... have to endure the consequences
- Sabinus 4mo ago
  They will learn. If the Strait remains closed for two months it's a recession. The mid-terms will be a bloodbath.
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    > If the Strait remains closed for two months it's a recession Who is forecasting this?
    - toomuchtodo 4mo ago
      https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/strait-of-hormuz-closure-risks-greatest-global-energy-supply-shock-in-decades/ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/strait-of-hormuz-clos... If Wood Mackenzie is not your cup of tea, lots of other resources with a search of “recession strait of Hormuz” keywords. The only reason we’re not in a global recession yet was because China paused oil imports, due to their >1B barrel strategic reserves. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Buying-Pause-Wont-Last-Forever.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Buying-Paus... https://www.kpler.com/blog/why-the-real-oil-shock-may-only-begin-when-china-returns https://www.kpler.com/blog/why-the-real-oil-shock-may-only-b...
      - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
        That forecasts a global recession if "the Strait remains largely closed through the end of 2026." Even under that scenario, which would emerge after the Strait had been closed for over ten months, the forecaster only sees "US GDP growth" falling "below 1%," i.e. not a recession. (I'm ignoring the fact that the Strait has already been closed for more than 2 months.)
        toomuchtodo 4mo ago
        https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Persian-Gulf-Oil-Tanker-Traffic-May-Never-Fully-Recover.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Persian-Gulf-Oil-... > Oil and gas traffic via the Strait of Hormuz may never go back to pre-war levels if Iran cements its hold over the chokepoint. The warnings come from several unrelated sources as the war continues to drag on, with some recovery in traffic but nowhere near pre-February 28 levels. Meanwhile, Big Oil is warning that the looming supply shortage is about to hit global markets in weeks. > “No matter what happens, the Iranians will control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future,” Amos Hochstein, senior national security and energy advisor to President Biden, told CNBC last week. “It doesn’t even matter what the deal says. Everybody in the region believes that.” > While the negotiations drag on, expectations that Iran will remain in de facto charge of the Strait of Hormuz appear to be strengthening. “Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view,” RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft said in a recent note, as quoted by CNBC.
        JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
        None of this suggests recession for America. We're an energy and defence exporter. That broadly offsets the effects of higher energy prices. Whether or not America winds up in a recession is going to be entirely a function of AI. That is what the economy is levered on.
        toomuchtodo 4mo ago
        I agree the US goes full recession as soon as the confidence falls out from under the AI bubble and all of this investment leading to GDP growth ends, but I also don’t believe the US economy (even assuming reduced GDP to energy correlation over the last two decades) can sustain growth and will lead to contraction with oil prices at or above the $150-$200/barrel price band if persistent. The below prediction predicts a near term (July) recession call at less than $100/barrel. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/high-oil-prices-could-tip-160808903.html https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/high-oil-prices-c... https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-warning-job-market-signal-unemploymen-trate-mark-zandi-2026-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-warning-job-mar... https://www.aei.org/articles/the-shrinking-economic-weight-of-energy/ https://www.aei.org/articles/the-shrinking-economic-weight-o...
    - Sabinus 4mo ago
      Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/iran-oil-shock-mark-zandi-aroxe https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/iran-oil-shock-mark-zandi-aro... "Based on the simulations of our global macroeconomic model, oil prices would only need to average close to $125 per barrel in the second quarter of this year for a recession to ensue soon thereafter, all else equal. And it is not difficult to envisage oil prices increasing to $125 per barrel. It only requires that the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz last a few weeks longer, say through July 4, or even much sooner, if the combatants increasingly target the region's energy-producing infrastructure."
  - pjmlp 4mo ago
    Yes, and it won't change anything sadly, most autocratic governments also hold elections.
  - adjejmxbdjdn 4mo ago
    So we’re clear, this is a technical recession. In the real world, the American resident is suffering deeply. The fact that things are so bad for the average American when the economy is growing (thanks largely to healthcare and AI investment), makes me shudder at what may happen if those tailwinds slow down, or the existing headwinds (like the impact of the war) strengthen.
  - tibbydudeza 4mo ago
    No worries AI spend and Klarna will make it all go away ;).
  - tstrimple 4mo ago
    If the US population were capable of learning, Republicans wouldn't be elected. Alas, that's not the world we live in. Republican administrations are worse by basically every recordable metric. From job creation to deficit reduction to foreign policy. Every 4-8 years the Democratic party has to be the only adults in the room and clean up the shit Republicans create. Only for it to be turned around and handed back to the shit spreaders.
kelvinjps10 4mo ago
The point is that all the civilians dying for nothing.
- fugaziboutit 4mo ago
  When elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers.
- zombot 4mo ago
  It has been known for about a hundred years that war is a racket. https://prisonfreepress.org/docs/War_is_a_Racket_(S_Butler_1935).pdf https://prisonfreepress.org/docs/War_is_a_Racket_(S_Butler_1...

You can have two thoughts at the same time. It's good that Iran is teaching USA and Israel a lesson, while Iran (also) being bad guys.

by lawn 4mo ago

You can have two thoughts at the same time. It's good that Iran is teaching USA and Israel a lesson, while Iran (also) being bad guys.

hasperdi 4mo ago

Unfortunately they'll learn nothing. The rest of the world however... have to endure the consequences

Sabinus 4mo ago
They will learn. If the Strait remains closed for two months it's a recession. The mid-terms will be a bloodbath.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > If the Strait remains closed for two months it's a recession Who is forecasting this?
  - toomuchtodo 4mo ago
    https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/strait-of-hormuz-closure-risks-greatest-global-energy-supply-shock-in-decades/ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/strait-of-hormuz-clos... If Wood Mackenzie is not your cup of tea, lots of other resources with a search of “recession strait of Hormuz” keywords. The only reason we’re not in a global recession yet was because China paused oil imports, due to their >1B barrel strategic reserves. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Buying-Pause-Wont-Last-Forever.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Buying-Paus... https://www.kpler.com/blog/why-the-real-oil-shock-may-only-begin-when-china-returns https://www.kpler.com/blog/why-the-real-oil-shock-may-only-b...
    - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
      That forecasts a global recession if "the Strait remains largely closed through the end of 2026." Even under that scenario, which would emerge after the Strait had been closed for over ten months, the forecaster only sees "US GDP growth" falling "below 1%," i.e. not a recession. (I'm ignoring the fact that the Strait has already been closed for more than 2 months.)
      - toomuchtodo 4mo ago
        https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Persian-Gulf-Oil-Tanker-Traffic-May-Never-Fully-Recover.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Persian-Gulf-Oil-... > Oil and gas traffic via the Strait of Hormuz may never go back to pre-war levels if Iran cements its hold over the chokepoint. The warnings come from several unrelated sources as the war continues to drag on, with some recovery in traffic but nowhere near pre-February 28 levels. Meanwhile, Big Oil is warning that the looming supply shortage is about to hit global markets in weeks. > “No matter what happens, the Iranians will control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future,” Amos Hochstein, senior national security and energy advisor to President Biden, told CNBC last week. “It doesn’t even matter what the deal says. Everybody in the region believes that.” > While the negotiations drag on, expectations that Iran will remain in de facto charge of the Strait of Hormuz appear to be strengthening. “Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view,” RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft said in a recent note, as quoted by CNBC.
        JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
        None of this suggests recession for America. We're an energy and defence exporter. That broadly offsets the effects of higher energy prices. Whether or not America winds up in a recession is going to be entirely a function of AI. That is what the economy is levered on.
        toomuchtodo 4mo ago
        I agree the US goes full recession as soon as the confidence falls out from under the AI bubble and all of this investment leading to GDP growth ends, but I also don’t believe the US economy (even assuming reduced GDP to energy correlation over the last two decades) can sustain growth and will lead to contraction with oil prices at or above the $150-$200/barrel price band if persistent. The below prediction predicts a near term (July) recession call at less than $100/barrel. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/high-oil-prices-could-tip-160808903.html https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/high-oil-prices-c... https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-warning-job-market-signal-unemploymen-trate-mark-zandi-2026-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-warning-job-mar... https://www.aei.org/articles/the-shrinking-economic-weight-of-energy/ https://www.aei.org/articles/the-shrinking-economic-weight-o...
  - Sabinus 4mo ago
    Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/iran-oil-shock-mark-zandi-aroxe https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/iran-oil-shock-mark-zandi-aro... "Based on the simulations of our global macroeconomic model, oil prices would only need to average close to $125 per barrel in the second quarter of this year for a recession to ensue soon thereafter, all else equal. And it is not difficult to envisage oil prices increasing to $125 per barrel. It only requires that the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz last a few weeks longer, say through July 4, or even much sooner, if the combatants increasingly target the region's energy-producing infrastructure."
- pjmlp 4mo ago
  Yes, and it won't change anything sadly, most autocratic governments also hold elections.
- adjejmxbdjdn 4mo ago
  So we’re clear, this is a technical recession. In the real world, the American resident is suffering deeply. The fact that things are so bad for the average American when the economy is growing (thanks largely to healthcare and AI investment), makes me shudder at what may happen if those tailwinds slow down, or the existing headwinds (like the impact of the war) strengthen.
- tibbydudeza 4mo ago
  No worries AI spend and Klarna will make it all go away ;).
- tstrimple 4mo ago
  If the US population were capable of learning, Republicans wouldn't be elected. Alas, that's not the world we live in. Republican administrations are worse by basically every recordable metric. From job creation to deficit reduction to foreign policy. Every 4-8 years the Democratic party has to be the only adults in the room and clean up the shit Republicans create. Only for it to be turned around and handed back to the shit spreaders.

kelvinjps10 4mo ago

The point is that all the civilians dying for nothing.

fugaziboutit 4mo ago
When elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers.
zombot 4mo ago
It has been known for about a hundred years that war is a racket. https://prisonfreepress.org/docs/War_is_a_Racket_(S_Butler_1935).pdf https://prisonfreepress.org/docs/War_is_a_Racket_(S_Butler_1...