4 ms·

Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?

roadside_picnic 4mo ago
As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices. The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.
- s1artibartfast 4mo ago
  What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
  - xdennis 4mo ago
    I'm pretty sure that's the change GP is referring to. But pension funds can choose to specifically exclude such companies. The Danish pension fund has already excluded SpaceX, which owns xAI. (This also probably relates to American threats of annexation of Danish territories, not just AI stuff.)
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    > indexes changed their rules NASDAQ changed its rules. Which I’m now 90% sure was a brilliant marketing move, given nobody followed that index until they did this.
    - NewsaHackO 4mo ago
      But very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ as an investment option.
    - s1artibartfast 4mo ago
      I was under the impression NASDAQ pursued it for their exchange business, not index revenue, but I suppose it could be both. In addition to the IPO, I expect there will be a lot of option and derivative services
FuckButtons 4mo ago
They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.
- boringg 4mo ago
  FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
  - kingleopold 4mo ago
    I'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.
  - sandeepkd 4mo ago
    It cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that
  - alemanek 4mo ago
    S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.
    - rozenmd 4mo ago
      Common knowledge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period
      - alemanek 4mo ago
        Going to give the benefit of the doubt here. I know what lockup period means. 365day lockup isn’t a universal standard. For example for SpaceX 20% of insider shares can be sold in the first few days. 100% within the first 3 months. Without a public S-1 filing we don’t know what the lockup for Anthropic will be
throw0101c 4mo ago
> Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first? Just because it's a bubble doesn't mean money can't be made. If you're worried it and the risk involved, perhaps go from 100% equities (100/0) to an allocation that has some bonds (90/10, 80/20, etc). Rebalance as things get out of whack. There are products that do this rebalancing for you: target-date funds that increase bond allocation as you get closer to retirement, or fixed-allocation all-in-one funds (VASGX, VSMGX; CA: VEQT/XEQT). Having some bonds and rebalancing would have saved US domestic investors in the so-called Lost Decade of the '00s: * https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-really-a-lost-decade/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-real...
- amanaplanacanal 4mo ago
  If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea.
  - throw0101c 4mo ago
    > If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea. Bonds are a bad idea until they're not… at which point it may be too late to buy them. And you (generally) don't buy bonds for returns (at least not since the '80s). If you can sleep at night with the gyrations of The Market™ then go ahead and skip them, but also keep your timelines in mind (are you hoping to retire in 5-10 years, or make some other use of the money (downpayment)?).

As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices. The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.

s1artibartfast 4mo ago
What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
- xdennis 4mo ago
  I'm pretty sure that's the change GP is referring to. But pension funds can choose to specifically exclude such companies. The Danish pension fund has already excluded SpaceX, which owns xAI. (This also probably relates to American threats of annexation of Danish territories, not just AI stuff.)
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > indexes changed their rules NASDAQ changed its rules. Which I’m now 90% sure was a brilliant marketing move, given nobody followed that index until they did this.
  - NewsaHackO 4mo ago
    But very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ as an investment option.
  - s1artibartfast 4mo ago
    I was under the impression NASDAQ pursued it for their exchange business, not index revenue, but I suppose it could be both. In addition to the IPO, I expect there will be a lot of option and derivative services

FuckButtons 4mo ago

They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.

boringg 4mo ago
FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
- kingleopold 4mo ago
  I'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.
- sandeepkd 4mo ago
  It cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that
- alemanek 4mo ago
  S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.
  - rozenmd 4mo ago
    Common knowledge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period
    - alemanek 4mo ago
      Going to give the benefit of the doubt here. I know what lockup period means. 365day lockup isn’t a universal standard. For example for SpaceX 20% of insider shares can be sold in the first few days. 100% within the first 3 months. Without a public S-1 filing we don’t know what the lockup for Anthropic will be

throw0101c 4mo ago

> Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first? Just because it's a bubble doesn't mean money can't be made. If you're worried it and the risk involved, perhaps go from 100% equities (100/0) to an allocation that has some bonds (90/10, 80/20, etc). Rebalance as things get out of whack. There are products that do this rebalancing for you: target-date funds that increase bond allocation as you get closer to retirement, or fixed-allocation all-in-one funds (VASGX, VSMGX; CA: VEQT/XEQT). Having some bonds and rebalancing would have saved US domestic investors in the so-called Lost Decade of the '00s: * https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-really-a-lost-decade/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-real...

amanaplanacanal 4mo ago
If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea.
- throw0101c 4mo ago
  > If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea. Bonds are a bad idea until they're not… at which point it may be too late to buy them. And you (generally) don't buy bonds for returns (at least not since the '80s). If you can sleep at night with the gyrations of The Market™ then go ahead and skip them, but also keep your timelines in mind (are you hoping to retire in 5-10 years, or make some other use of the money (downpayment)?).