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SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026039276/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm http

SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026039276/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

onlyrealcuzzo 5mo ago
Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?
- roadside_picnic 5mo ago
  As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices. The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.
  - s1artibartfast 5mo ago
    What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
    - xdennis 5mo ago
      I'm pretty sure that's the change GP is referring to. But pension funds can choose to specifically exclude such companies. The Danish pension fund has already excluded SpaceX, which owns xAI. (This also probably relates to American threats of annexation of Danish territories, not just AI stuff.)
    - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
      > indexes changed their rules NASDAQ changed its rules. Which I’m now 90% sure was a brilliant marketing move, given nobody followed that index until they did this.
      - NewsaHackO 5mo ago
        But very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ as an investment option.
      - s1artibartfast 5mo ago
        I was under the impression NASDAQ pursued it for their exchange business, not index revenue, but I suppose it could be both. In addition to the IPO, I expect there will be a lot of option and derivative services
- FuckButtons 5mo ago
  They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.
  - boringg 5mo ago
    FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
    - kingleopold 5mo ago
      I'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.
    - sandeepkd 5mo ago
      It cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that
    - alemanek 5mo ago
      S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.
      - rozenmd 5mo ago
        Common knowledge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period
        alemanek 5mo ago
        Going to give the benefit of the doubt here. I know what lockup period means. 365day lockup isn’t a universal standard. For example for SpaceX 20% of insider shares can be sold in the first few days. 100% within the first 3 months. Without a public S-1 filing we don’t know what the lockup for Anthropic will be
- throw0101c 5mo ago
  > Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first? Just because it's a bubble doesn't mean money can't be made. If you're worried it and the risk involved, perhaps go from 100% equities (100/0) to an allocation that has some bonds (90/10, 80/20, etc). Rebalance as things get out of whack. There are products that do this rebalancing for you: target-date funds that increase bond allocation as you get closer to retirement, or fixed-allocation all-in-one funds (VASGX, VSMGX; CA: VEQT/XEQT). Having some bonds and rebalancing would have saved US domestic investors in the so-called Lost Decade of the '00s: * https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-really-a-lost-decade/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-real...
  - amanaplanacanal 5mo ago
    If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea.
    - throw0101c 5mo ago
      > If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea. Bonds are a bad idea until they're not… at which point it may be too late to buy them. And you (generally) don't buy bonds for returns (at least not since the '80s). If you can sleep at night with the gyrations of The Market™ then go ahead and skip them, but also keep your timelines in mind (are you hoping to retire in 5-10 years, or make some other use of the money (downpayment)?).
root-parent 5mo ago
And as suspected, the Anthropic deal is not recurring revenue, its just a think they can cancel anytime with 90 days notice...Release the bad news slowly and when people are looking somewhere else... SpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....
jbkkd 5mo ago
What changed?
chasd00 5mo ago
The SpaceX IPO confuses me, with the kind of testing they do the stock price is going to be a roller coaster ride. Every splashdown with an explosion, even if planned, is going to impact the stock price. Are they hurting for cash? Why even IPO if you don't need the cash?
- roysting 5mo ago
  Patrick Boyle has an excellent presentation (YT) on the SpaceX IPO. In case you thought you knew it was bad … it’s way worse than you think. https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI
- luke5441 5mo ago
  They need the cash to bail out xAI and X. Even SpaceX is not profitable because of Starship.
- dan-robertson 5mo ago
  Their IPO sees the company as doing a small amount of space and $22T of B2B services. If you believe that then space launches shouldn’t have much impact on their valuation compared to things that affect their hypothetical services revenue. If you think the value comes from the rockets, you would need some very large multiples to justify their desired valuation in which case, sure, the rockets are the cause of volatility…
- epolanski 5mo ago
  SpaceX, according to their own documents is an AI company, with 97% of their projected future income coming from it.
- elAhmo 5mo ago
  Knowing that investors in Elon's companies blatantly trust his lies, a rocket exploding here and there is not going to make a dent in the stock price.

onlyrealcuzzo 5mo ago

Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?

roadside_picnic 5mo ago
As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices. The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.
- s1artibartfast 5mo ago
  What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
  - xdennis 5mo ago
    I'm pretty sure that's the change GP is referring to. But pension funds can choose to specifically exclude such companies. The Danish pension fund has already excluded SpaceX, which owns xAI. (This also probably relates to American threats of annexation of Danish territories, not just AI stuff.)
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    > indexes changed their rules NASDAQ changed its rules. Which I’m now 90% sure was a brilliant marketing move, given nobody followed that index until they did this.
    - NewsaHackO 5mo ago
      But very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ as an investment option.
    - s1artibartfast 5mo ago
      I was under the impression NASDAQ pursued it for their exchange business, not index revenue, but I suppose it could be both. In addition to the IPO, I expect there will be a lot of option and derivative services
FuckButtons 5mo ago
They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.
- boringg 5mo ago
  FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
  - kingleopold 5mo ago
    I'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.
  - sandeepkd 5mo ago
    It cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that
  - alemanek 5mo ago
    S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.
    - rozenmd 5mo ago
      Common knowledge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-up_period
      - alemanek 5mo ago
        Going to give the benefit of the doubt here. I know what lockup period means. 365day lockup isn’t a universal standard. For example for SpaceX 20% of insider shares can be sold in the first few days. 100% within the first 3 months. Without a public S-1 filing we don’t know what the lockup for Anthropic will be
throw0101c 5mo ago
> Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first? Just because it's a bubble doesn't mean money can't be made. If you're worried it and the risk involved, perhaps go from 100% equities (100/0) to an allocation that has some bonds (90/10, 80/20, etc). Rebalance as things get out of whack. There are products that do this rebalancing for you: target-date funds that increase bond allocation as you get closer to retirement, or fixed-allocation all-in-one funds (VASGX, VSMGX; CA: VEQT/XEQT). Having some bonds and rebalancing would have saved US domestic investors in the so-called Lost Decade of the '00s: * https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-really-a-lost-decade/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-real...
- amanaplanacanal 5mo ago
  If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea.
  - throw0101c 5mo ago
    > If we are still likely to see rising interest rates, bonds feel like a bad idea. Bonds are a bad idea until they're not… at which point it may be too late to buy them. And you (generally) don't buy bonds for returns (at least not since the '80s). If you can sleep at night with the gyrations of The Market™ then go ahead and skip them, but also keep your timelines in mind (are you hoping to retire in 5-10 years, or make some other use of the money (downpayment)?).

root-parent 5mo ago

And as suspected, the Anthropic deal is not recurring revenue, its just a think they can cancel anytime with 90 days notice...Release the bad news slowly and when people are looking somewhere else... SpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....

jbkkd 5mo ago

What changed?

chasd00 5mo ago

The SpaceX IPO confuses me, with the kind of testing they do the stock price is going to be a roller coaster ride. Every splashdown with an explosion, even if planned, is going to impact the stock price. Are they hurting for cash? Why even IPO if you don't need the cash?

roysting 5mo ago
Patrick Boyle has an excellent presentation (YT) on the SpaceX IPO. In case you thought you knew it was bad … it’s way worse than you think. https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI
luke5441 5mo ago
They need the cash to bail out xAI and X. Even SpaceX is not profitable because of Starship.
dan-robertson 5mo ago
Their IPO sees the company as doing a small amount of space and $22T of B2B services. If you believe that then space launches shouldn’t have much impact on their valuation compared to things that affect their hypothetical services revenue. If you think the value comes from the rockets, you would need some very large multiples to justify their desired valuation in which case, sure, the rockets are the cause of volatility…
epolanski 5mo ago
SpaceX, according to their own documents is an AI company, with 97% of their projected future income coming from it.
elAhmo 5mo ago
Knowing that investors in Elon's companies blatantly trust his lies, a rocket exploding here and there is not going to make a dent in the stock price.