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There has been a lot of posturing from both sides, this is probably going to continue for a couple of months more before they reach equilibrium.

by 10xDev 4mo ago

cdrnsf 4mo ago
I don't think we should consider gross incompetence on the part of the US to be posturing.
- 10xDev 4mo ago
  I'm only giving a neutral perspective. The moment the world stops relying on oil, Iran will lose its biggest leverage in this situation. Other sources of energy are going to be pushed even more.
  - dh2022 4mo ago
    There is more that goes through Hormuz than just oil- like fertilizer for example. Just been able to charge a fee for crossing the Hormuz is a strategic goal for Iran. This is an outcome of the war. Previously Iran did not know how weak US is - but now they figured out. It would be interesting to see if this war will be a net negative for Israel. If Iran emerges with more financial resources out of the war you can bet they will fund Hamas and Hezbollah more than before the war.
    - nradov 4mo ago
      Fertilizer exports are a problem but trucks are keeping it moving at a somewhat higher cost. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-in-persian-gulf-govt-plans-to-move-it-by-road-to-port/articleshow/131379969.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-i...
      - kylehotchkiss 4mo ago
        I was wondering what the solution to this was. From a distance, a railroad here would be great. Pay Ukraine to keep the drones away from it. I've been to the region, I understand that a sandy desert is a tough place to keep a rail line open though.
  - queenkjuul 4mo ago
    Millions of tons of chemicals, fertilizer, and metals used to pass through the strait, not just oil.
  - thrance 4mo ago
    > The moment the world stops relying on oil, This isn't happening anytime soon.
pickleglitch 4mo ago
Yeah, I don't see it. Trump is also pathologically incapable of admitting defeat (see Jan 6) and it will be very difficult for him to claim victory without getting something better than the deal Obama got. There's little to no incentive for Iran to give him any such deal. Israel also doesn't want the war to end and they can easily sabotage any real negotiations that appear to be getting serious. Trump has no off ramp. I don't see this ending until he is out of office.

There has been a lot of posturing from both sides, this is probably going to continue for a couple of months more before they reach equilibrium.

by 10xDev 4mo ago

There has been a lot of posturing from both sides, this is probably going to continue for a couple of months more before they reach equilibrium.

cdrnsf 4mo ago

I don't think we should consider gross incompetence on the part of the US to be posturing.

10xDev 4mo ago
I'm only giving a neutral perspective. The moment the world stops relying on oil, Iran will lose its biggest leverage in this situation. Other sources of energy are going to be pushed even more.
- dh2022 4mo ago
  There is more that goes through Hormuz than just oil- like fertilizer for example. Just been able to charge a fee for crossing the Hormuz is a strategic goal for Iran. This is an outcome of the war. Previously Iran did not know how weak US is - but now they figured out. It would be interesting to see if this war will be a net negative for Israel. If Iran emerges with more financial resources out of the war you can bet they will fund Hamas and Hezbollah more than before the war.
  - nradov 4mo ago
    Fertilizer exports are a problem but trucks are keeping it moving at a somewhat higher cost. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-in-persian-gulf-govt-plans-to-move-it-by-road-to-port/articleshow/131379969.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-i...
    - kylehotchkiss 4mo ago
      I was wondering what the solution to this was. From a distance, a railroad here would be great. Pay Ukraine to keep the drones away from it. I've been to the region, I understand that a sandy desert is a tough place to keep a rail line open though.
- queenkjuul 4mo ago
  Millions of tons of chemicals, fertilizer, and metals used to pass through the strait, not just oil.
- thrance 4mo ago
  > The moment the world stops relying on oil, This isn't happening anytime soon.

pickleglitch 4mo ago

Yeah, I don't see it. Trump is also pathologically incapable of admitting defeat (see Jan 6) and it will be very difficult for him to claim victory without getting something better than the deal Obama got. There's little to no incentive for Iran to give him any such deal. Israel also doesn't want the war to end and they can easily sabotage any real negotiations that appear to be getting serious. Trump has no off ramp. I don't see this ending until he is out of office.