4 ms·

I think standardized codes would help a lot. Another major issue is labor mobility: Here in California, there's a big labor shortage for all blue collar trade

by hedora 5mo ago

I think standardized codes would help a lot. Another major issue is labor mobility: Here in California, there's a big labor shortage for all blue collar trades, and even if they do live in the area, they have to spend a lot of time going to/from the job site. I think this can be largely solved by technology, but with a change of regulations, code, and division of labor in the trades. 1) Put all the power conduit, plumbing and HVAC into standardized modules that can be cut to length with a circular saw, and attached with tools that cost a total of $500 with no skilled labor. It doesn't matter if this increases material costs by 50% for those components because they are cheap vs. labor. I'd rather waste a $50 piece of conduit than pay three different tradespeople $100+/hour to hand-build junctions where the wasted piece would end up being. 2) The next big cost is probably drywall finishing + doors. I don't have a great solution. I can imagine just 3d printing the whole interior once the conduits are placed. 3) Roofs can be cheap if rooflines are simple, since that allows stuff like metal roof trim to be fabbed at a factory. I don't think asphalt shingles are going to make much sense in many places 30 years from now, so probably just bite the bullet, and pick something wind and fireproof, then make it cheap. 4) Put solar panels somewhere other than the roof, or replace the roof material with them entirely. 5) Framing and insulation are already embarrassingly cheap vs the rest of the house. Probably not worth optimizing unless it saves finishing labor in the next step (e.g., 3d print a beautiful interior wall so you don't have to pay for someone to apply joint compound + paint). That leaves the foundation + architecture / engineering work as the hard part. Most of the design work for that stuff could be automated. Let the homeowner and builder boss an LLM around, and then run the LLM output through code compliance + simulation gates. The latter is really important because most local code is hazard or climate dependent, and having good deterministic vetting of designs would let the construction process apply to multiple climates. Prefab could make sense, but, in practice, those people don't pick up the phone. One major issue is delivering the house to things like hills, or at the end of windy / suburban roads. (The prefab sections want to be 30-50ft long, but your residential road doesn't want to support trailers over 20-30' or so).

bombcar 5mo ago
Have you ever been on a building site, let alone been involved with building?
onlyrealcuzzo 5mo ago
The problem is that most of the country wants housing to get more expensive... You're going to have a hard time getting anything passed when a lot of people will do anything and everything to make sure housing can never get cheaper and only more expensive...
- peab 5mo ago
  Exactly. The incentive isn't there.
  - fragmede 5mo ago
    It will, once children start being unable to afford to move out and end up having to live with their parents forever.
    - peab 5mo ago
      I sure hope things change
    - trollbridge 5mo ago
      Not much of an incentive, is it? If people are having kids in their 40s, they probably won't even mind having an able-bodied adult around when they're in their 70s/80s.
- landryraccoon 5mo ago
  That’s already backfiring because high housing costs drive down the birth rate. If the next generation is smaller than the previous generation, housing prices will collapse.
  - edg5000 5mo ago
    It's what we're seeing in Japan I think. I never realised this second order effect, but it makes sense.
toast0 5mo ago
1) I don't think this is really a problem? When the walls are open, running stuff is fast. But when the walls are done, the trades come back to make the connections, which is slow amd expensive. Or if you messed up and have to fix it when the walls are up. 2) prehung doors help. Drywall is already the cheaper, faster option... but yeah, finish takes a lot of time. Innovations such as giant oversized outlet trims help a little bit. 3) simple rooflines help even when not using prefab, but people seem to prefer complex roofs. Again, asphalt shingles are the cheap option. If you have a single or two surface roof, a roof goes very fast. Where planes intersect is where all the time is. Material costs on a metal roof are still way more than asphalt. 4) most people don't have a somewhere else for the solar to go. Solar tiles are too expensive (materials and labor)... Panels as roof sounds good until you want to have roof penetrations as is normal for plumbing vents, combustion flues, and bathroom ventilation. Gotta make that all mostly waterproof too. 5) framing seems to be getting some labor saving. Prefab sections can save on-site labor. Things like roof trusses fit on a truck nicely. I think I've seen wall segments too, maybe? Stair sections?
trollbridge 5mo ago
Most homes built don't use conduit for electric anymore. A few jurisdictions like Chicago require it. In any case, doing it new construction is quite easy and usually the job given to the newest apprentice electrician. Plumbing (including HVAC lines and gas lines) already come in standard sizes and can be cut with a saw; connecting them is trivially easy. (HVAC lines might be slightly harder but everything else is easy.) Hanging drywall and mudding it is not particularly expensive and is necessary for good fire resistance. There are cheaper techniques like pre-printing wallpaper on drywall, but most people would rather pay more to have a conventionally painted wall. Metal roofs are already fabbed at the factory. You simply order what you want and install it. Obviously a simpler roofline is less work to install. Solar panels can't be the roof because few want to engineer a solar panel which also is capable of being a watertight, weather-resistant roof tile that can hhandle things like snow load, driving rainstorms, and has the ability to do simple repairs. There have been attempts at this, but then it costs more than just a conventional roof plus conventional solar panels. "3D print" a wall doesn't make sense - where is the 3D printer going to come from and where it will be set up? 3D printing stuff requires having a base, rigidity, and so on; it's just not well suited for putting up walls which is a pretty trivial task to do. Hope this didn't sound dismissive, but the problems in homebuilding that could be solved by manufacturing techniques and automation already have been solved by the people who are in the business of making singlewides, doublewides, and modular homes; it saves a little money but doesn't save that much, and the resulting product is often quite a bit less desirable and less durable than a conventionally built house.
quickthrowman 5mo ago
I work in the construction industry, you did not ask the LLM the right questions. 1) is already the way residential construction works. Conduit isn’t used in homes aside from Chicago and a handful of other jurisdictions but all conduit can be cut with a sub $500 tool called a portaband. Plumbing pipe can be cut with a portaband. There are multiple power tools that can be used to cut sheet metal. Fittings for the electrical, plumbing, and HVAC trades are commoditized and standardized. 2) Drywall and drywall finishing is the cheapest labor on a building site aside from the cleaners and maybe the insulators. The framers, finish carpenters, equipment operators, flooring workers, and MEP trades all make more than the drywallers, mudders/tapers, and painters. 3) Raised seam metal roofs are great and last longer than asphalt shingles, but it’s more expensive up front. 4) Solar roofs have far too many terminations/connections to be reliable, the upfront cost may possibly never be paid back. That could change, but it’s a tricky problem. > That leaves the foundation + architecture / engineering work as the hard part. Most of the design work for that stuff could be automated. Let the homeowner and builder boss an LLM around, and then run the LLM output through code compliance + simulation gates. The latter is really important because most local code is hazard or climate dependent, and having good deterministic vetting of designs would let the construction process apply to multiple climates. The architect and engineer design the construction documents to adhere to the codes in the jurisdiction the structure is being built in, no LLM needed. Most jurisdictions just adopt one of the standardized codes for general code like the IBC and then various trade codes like the NEC. Things like roof load calculations for areas with snow make designing a house that works in both California and Minnesota not worth it unless you want to overengineer your roof for California. There’s an entire massive industry focused on shaving costs to increase margins that have been working on these problems for a long time.

by hedora 5mo ago

bombcar 5mo ago

Have you ever been on a building site, let alone been involved with building?

onlyrealcuzzo 5mo ago

The problem is that most of the country wants housing to get more expensive... You're going to have a hard time getting anything passed when a lot of people will do anything and everything to make sure housing can never get cheaper and only more expensive...

peab 5mo ago
Exactly. The incentive isn't there.
- fragmede 5mo ago
  It will, once children start being unable to afford to move out and end up having to live with their parents forever.
  - peab 5mo ago
    I sure hope things change
  - trollbridge 5mo ago
    Not much of an incentive, is it? If people are having kids in their 40s, they probably won't even mind having an able-bodied adult around when they're in their 70s/80s.
landryraccoon 5mo ago
That’s already backfiring because high housing costs drive down the birth rate. If the next generation is smaller than the previous generation, housing prices will collapse.
- edg5000 5mo ago
  It's what we're seeing in Japan I think. I never realised this second order effect, but it makes sense.

toast0 5mo ago

1) I don't think this is really a problem? When the walls are open, running stuff is fast. But when the walls are done, the trades come back to make the connections, which is slow amd expensive. Or if you messed up and have to fix it when the walls are up. 2) prehung doors help. Drywall is already the cheaper, faster option... but yeah, finish takes a lot of time. Innovations such as giant oversized outlet trims help a little bit. 3) simple rooflines help even when not using prefab, but people seem to prefer complex roofs. Again, asphalt shingles are the cheap option. If you have a single or two surface roof, a roof goes very fast. Where planes intersect is where all the time is. Material costs on a metal roof are still way more than asphalt. 4) most people don't have a somewhere else for the solar to go. Solar tiles are too expensive (materials and labor)... Panels as roof sounds good until you want to have roof penetrations as is normal for plumbing vents, combustion flues, and bathroom ventilation. Gotta make that all mostly waterproof too. 5) framing seems to be getting some labor saving. Prefab sections can save on-site labor. Things like roof trusses fit on a truck nicely. I think I've seen wall segments too, maybe? Stair sections?

trollbridge 5mo ago

Most homes built don't use conduit for electric anymore. A few jurisdictions like Chicago require it. In any case, doing it new construction is quite easy and usually the job given to the newest apprentice electrician. Plumbing (including HVAC lines and gas lines) already come in standard sizes and can be cut with a saw; connecting them is trivially easy. (HVAC lines might be slightly harder but everything else is easy.) Hanging drywall and mudding it is not particularly expensive and is necessary for good fire resistance. There are cheaper techniques like pre-printing wallpaper on drywall, but most people would rather pay more to have a conventionally painted wall. Metal roofs are already fabbed at the factory. You simply order what you want and install it. Obviously a simpler roofline is less work to install. Solar panels can't be the roof because few want to engineer a solar panel which also is capable of being a watertight, weather-resistant roof tile that can hhandle things like snow load, driving rainstorms, and has the ability to do simple repairs. There have been attempts at this, but then it costs more than just a conventional roof plus conventional solar panels. "3D print" a wall doesn't make sense - where is the 3D printer going to come from and where it will be set up? 3D printing stuff requires having a base, rigidity, and so on; it's just not well suited for putting up walls which is a pretty trivial task to do. Hope this didn't sound dismissive, but the problems in homebuilding that could be solved by manufacturing techniques and automation already have been solved by the people who are in the business of making singlewides, doublewides, and modular homes; it saves a little money but doesn't save that much, and the resulting product is often quite a bit less desirable and less durable than a conventionally built house.

quickthrowman 5mo ago

I work in the construction industry, you did not ask the LLM the right questions. 1) is already the way residential construction works. Conduit isn’t used in homes aside from Chicago and a handful of other jurisdictions but all conduit can be cut with a sub $500 tool called a portaband. Plumbing pipe can be cut with a portaband. There are multiple power tools that can be used to cut sheet metal. Fittings for the electrical, plumbing, and HVAC trades are commoditized and standardized. 2) Drywall and drywall finishing is the cheapest labor on a building site aside from the cleaners and maybe the insulators. The framers, finish carpenters, equipment operators, flooring workers, and MEP trades all make more than the drywallers, mudders/tapers, and painters. 3) Raised seam metal roofs are great and last longer than asphalt shingles, but it’s more expensive up front. 4) Solar roofs have far too many terminations/connections to be reliable, the upfront cost may possibly never be paid back. That could change, but it’s a tricky problem. > That leaves the foundation + architecture / engineering work as the hard part. Most of the design work for that stuff could be automated. Let the homeowner and builder boss an LLM around, and then run the LLM output through code compliance + simulation gates. The latter is really important because most local code is hazard or climate dependent, and having good deterministic vetting of designs would let the construction process apply to multiple climates. The architect and engineer design the construction documents to adhere to the codes in the jurisdiction the structure is being built in, no LLM needed. Most jurisdictions just adopt one of the standardized codes for general code like the IBC and then various trade codes like the NEC. Things like roof load calculations for areas with snow make designing a house that works in both California and Minnesota not worth it unless you want to overengineer your roof for California. There’s an entire massive industry focused on shaving costs to increase margins that have been working on these problems for a long time.