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> But that isn't what it is anymore, it's a dumping ground. We got "dumped" Google and Facebook, so... Those probably made up for all the other "dumps". We al

> But that isn't what it is anymore, it's a dumping ground. We got "dumped" Google and Facebook, so... Those probably made up for all the other "dumps". We also got "dumped" TSLA, which is meme-ing in the trillions at the moment. You can short Anthropic at IPO if you want...

NewJazz 5mo ago
Google IPO 20 years ago, Tesla 15 years ago, facebook almost 15 years ago. Situations change.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5mo ago
  When did they change? 3 years and 4 months ago? 1 year ago? 8 years? Because when Facebook IPO'd everyone was saying the stock market was a dumping ground... Same with Google... Same with Pets.com and WebVan...
  - Npovview 5mo ago
    Few Pheonix(s) rise from the ashes of many Unicorns.
  - pixelatedindex 5mo ago
    Sometimes when things change in an insidious manner, it’s hard to point out _when_ the decline started.
- signatoremo 5mo ago
  Maybe but can you elaborate what the changes are?
- icedchai 5mo ago
  "This time it's different", right?
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]
surgical_fire 5mo ago
Or he can just steer clear of the eventual Anthropic stock. Shorting is not the only strategy available to avoid losing money. But you, of course, can buy on their IPO. They need every bagholder they can get :)
halamadrid 5mo ago
Looking back it feels like GOOG, FB, TSLA etc. all went IPO at reasonable valuations. Retail & public investors did benefit long term and continuing to get higher valuations in public is not a small feat compared to a VC valuation. A trillion dollar valuation seemed so hard back in the day and now there are so many companies in that list. What's the next level? Is this just signs that $ is no longer the inflating at the same rate over time and its the realistic inflation that is reflecting in the stock market? Prices of all goods surely has to follow to make up for the revenue needed to sustain these valuations and also the salaries to sustain the prices. Unfortunately, those who are not in the loop is not going to have a good time.
- ml_basics 5mo ago
  maybe we will look back and also think that the current slate of IPOs were reasonable valuations?
  - lumost 5mo ago
    The critical view is that these IPOs are bumping up against physics. How many trillion dollar companies can the economy support? The US GDP is roughly 32 Trillion. A company with 100 billion dollars in revenue and 10x annual growth would be expected to increase the size of the economy by 3.2% in its first year, and about 30% in it's second year post IPO existing. While we could claim that such a company can grow by consuming a larger share of the GDP ... this would not bode well for future political stability, and nationalization would be a major topic. So your left with a fast take off scenario, a job apocalypse, or a massively reduced growth rate.
    - fittingopposite 5mo ago
      Wait for more inflation. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...
    - adammarples 4mo ago
      If Anthropic has anything line that level of success, it will also be at the expense of huge unemployment, because Claude is really competing with knowledge work

NewJazz 5mo ago

Google IPO 20 years ago, Tesla 15 years ago, facebook almost 15 years ago. Situations change.

onlyrealcuzzo 5mo ago
When did they change? 3 years and 4 months ago? 1 year ago? 8 years? Because when Facebook IPO'd everyone was saying the stock market was a dumping ground... Same with Google... Same with Pets.com and WebVan...
- Npovview 5mo ago
  Few Pheonix(s) rise from the ashes of many Unicorns.
- pixelatedindex 5mo ago
  Sometimes when things change in an insidious manner, it’s hard to point out _when_ the decline started.
signatoremo 5mo ago
Maybe but can you elaborate what the changes are?
icedchai 5mo ago
"This time it's different", right?

deleted 5mo ago

[deleted]

surgical_fire 5mo ago

Or he can just steer clear of the eventual Anthropic stock. Shorting is not the only strategy available to avoid losing money. But you, of course, can buy on their IPO. They need every bagholder they can get :)

halamadrid 5mo ago

Looking back it feels like GOOG, FB, TSLA etc. all went IPO at reasonable valuations. Retail & public investors did benefit long term and continuing to get higher valuations in public is not a small feat compared to a VC valuation. A trillion dollar valuation seemed so hard back in the day and now there are so many companies in that list. What's the next level? Is this just signs that $ is no longer the inflating at the same rate over time and its the realistic inflation that is reflecting in the stock market? Prices of all goods surely has to follow to make up for the revenue needed to sustain these valuations and also the salaries to sustain the prices. Unfortunately, those who are not in the loop is not going to have a good time.

ml_basics 5mo ago
maybe we will look back and also think that the current slate of IPOs were reasonable valuations?
- lumost 5mo ago
  The critical view is that these IPOs are bumping up against physics. How many trillion dollar companies can the economy support? The US GDP is roughly 32 Trillion. A company with 100 billion dollars in revenue and 10x annual growth would be expected to increase the size of the economy by 3.2% in its first year, and about 30% in it's second year post IPO existing. While we could claim that such a company can grow by consuming a larger share of the GDP ... this would not bode well for future political stability, and nationalization would be a major topic. So your left with a fast take off scenario, a job apocalypse, or a massively reduced growth rate.
  - fittingopposite 5mo ago
    Wait for more inflation. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...
  - adammarples 4mo ago
    If Anthropic has anything line that level of success, it will also be at the expense of huge unemployment, because Claude is really competing with knowledge work