4 ms·

This is the same argument that has been historically made for outsourcing developers. Get 20 more devs for the cost of 1 dev in the US. I suspect that AI will

This is the same argument that has been historically made for outsourcing developers. Get 20 more devs for the cost of 1 dev in the US. I suspect that AI will fail to pan out to the same extent for the same reason why outsourcing hasn't fully panned out (even though every company tries it after getting big enough). The problems that will come up will be and always have been ongoing maintenance. AI is great at writing new code without a brain behind it, but once you get to the point where you need to refactor code, you start really needing someone with coding experience to guide the AI or veto it's mistakes. I don't think that's really fixable even with a lot better AI. It's not something that ultimately comes out of the likes of github data. I'm not saying that AI isn't going to make things better, btw, I just don't think we'll see a 20x improvement. Probably more like 1.5 or 2x.

roncesvalles 5mo ago
Outsourcing of knowledge workers didn't work out because at large enough scales, the geographic arbitrage disappeared. Companies mostly always got what they paid for. The determinant of success was only whether the task needed American-tier labor or could make do with sub-American quality labor.
- cogman10 5mo ago
  That's certainly part of it. But the other part that I've heard time and time again is that in order for outsourcing to be successful you basically needed an american engineer in the mix hand holding everything, clarifying requirements, and vetoing bad code. That part of dev work, the requirements gathering, attention to details, clarifying requirements, is something AI also struggles with. A lot of companies basically waste time and money on outsourced devs because without a clear path forward they effectively will sit and do nothing, waiting for a prompt.
  - m1coti 5mo ago
    I would not agree on that point. It really depends on company's structure. I mean it also depends with people that makes the team. I would say there are a lot of unknowns but I would certainly not generalize. How I find your argument is that one distinguished engineer from US could do the same with the use of AI. I worked with both and I know great and bad engineers from both sides. Only thing is that US has a bigger pool of great engineers.
  - regularfry 5mo ago
    I think the mechanism here isn't that American engineers are magic. It's that you need that contextual knowledge really close to where the work is actually being done, so that the turnaround for questions, blockages, clarifications, "we've got no work to do", quality level-setting and so on is on the scale of minutes, not time-zones.
  - jimbokun 5mo ago
    It doesn’t have to be an American but it does have to be a direct employee of the company ideally working in the same time zone as management and the people defining the requirements.
- m1coti 5mo ago
  I am not sure this feels right. I agree that the US currently has leading minds in terms of tech, but I am not sure it is too big of difference with the EU knowledge workers. EU is still a lot cheaper then US in terms of wages you would need to pay.
  - irishcoffee 5mo ago
    Sure is an interesting thought. None of this is sarcasm: why do US companies deal with the time zone differences and language barriers they won’t need to bother with so much by outsourcing to say, Ireland?
    - surgical_fire 5mo ago
      Er, US companies do outsource to Ireland. Basically every big tech has large offices and employ a lot of people there. The limitation is that Ireland is a relatively small country, and most Irish developers are already employed (which is why Ireland end up being one of the main destinations for tech workers being hired from abroad).
    - regularfry 5mo ago
      The mechanism is often that they'll actually outsource to someone like Accenture, who have teams everywhere, and whose contract managers will try to get their cheapest viable team onto the contract to maximise their margin. If the buyer can't judge the quality of what they're buying, or doesn't know why the resulting hand-offs, delays, mistakes and rework will cost them more than keeping everything in-house ever would have, they're going to have a bad time.
    - deleted 5mo ago
      [deleted]
    - lmm 5mo ago
      Ireland isn't that much cheaper than, say, Oklahoma. And the cultural differences with Ireland are not a lot smaller than those with India or the Philippines or what have you, once you try to actually start working together. (Yes, all the good developers from Oklahoma move out, but the same is true of Ireland)
- asdff 5mo ago
  Outsourcing of knowledge workers is still ramping up. The issue in the past was the skills were few and far between internationally. Facilities were also not built. That has changed now in a lot of fields. New campuses have been built in places like Bangalore and Hyderabad, even Singapore. The skills are there now, the training is decent, and you can see that the hiring is going on for very skilled titles in these cities. It is a different animal than just 10 years ago in this.
- jimbokun 5mo ago
  The “American tier” labor of course is distributed across the world and the top performers in every nation find ways to get paid at something approaching American salary levels. Look at all the international FAANG offices paying high salaries, in purchase pricing parity terms.
regularfry 5mo ago
> I suspect that AI will fail to pan out to the same extent for the same reason why outsourcing hasn't fully panned out My mental model for that is that outsourcing fails where the work is being done organisationally far from the knowledge needed to do it. We know that's true of teams inside organisations, there's been a lot of research on how distance in the organisational tree negatively impacts productivity. Outsourcing is a pathological worst-case of that. The promise (promise! We're not there yet!) of AI is that I can have a cross-functional team on my laptop. Organisational distance is zero. Where previously the outsourced team has to wait for the time zones to roll round so I can answer their blocking question when I get to my email STRICTLY AFTER I have had my coffee, now it's a prompt in a chat window with a button I can click to make a choice in 5 seconds. Delay is gone, cost of delay is gone. > The problems that will come up will be and always have been ongoing maintenance. AI is great at writing new code without a brain behind it, but once you get to the point where you need to refactor code, you start really needing someone with coding experience to guide the AI or veto it's mistakes. Oh, absolutely. That's a minefield. Today. It will be, right up until it isn't. There are ways to set up agents and projects right now that make a dramatic difference to how this part of the picture plays out, but those will sink into the harnesses as time goes on. But also the big problem with maintenance and outsourced teams tends to be the commercial structure around the contract. You get a Build team, who Build the Thing and then: no more features for you, anything you want to add past the original spec costs extra. They hand over to the Run And Maintain team, who get to fix all the bugs that the Build team left but without the knowledge gained from building the thing, but are scaled and located to be absolutely as cheap as the supplier can get away with so probably don't have the skill, inclination, motivation, or permission to take on any restructuring to make the bug fixing easier and they're on the wrong end of the globe so there's a 24-hour latency on any queries. It's a terrible way to set teams up, but it looks good on paper. Again, that's peculiar to outsourcing and completely goes away if I have the same team that built the thing own the thing long-term. That's true if it's humans or AI! > I don't think that's really fixable even with a lot better AI. It's not something that ultimately comes out of the likes of github data. No, it's a harness problem. You need to start from a maintainable point and keep standards in place. It'll take work to get the harnesses there and it's not ubiquitous. You might also need better models, but I've already personally seen big differences in outcomes between projects that took certain steps and others that didn't; it's nothing revolutionary, mostly stuff that works for humans also works for AIs but you need to know to ask for it. > I'm not saying that AI isn't going to make things better, btw, I just don't think we'll see a 20x improvement. Probably more like 1.5 or 2x. I think people radically underestimate the cost of delay. I don't know if 20x is realistic for the AI itself, but I think it's not impossible once the inefficiencies of having to go to other humans is factored in.

roncesvalles 5mo ago

Outsourcing of knowledge workers didn't work out because at large enough scales, the geographic arbitrage disappeared. Companies mostly always got what they paid for. The determinant of success was only whether the task needed American-tier labor or could make do with sub-American quality labor.

cogman10 5mo ago
That's certainly part of it. But the other part that I've heard time and time again is that in order for outsourcing to be successful you basically needed an american engineer in the mix hand holding everything, clarifying requirements, and vetoing bad code. That part of dev work, the requirements gathering, attention to details, clarifying requirements, is something AI also struggles with. A lot of companies basically waste time and money on outsourced devs because without a clear path forward they effectively will sit and do nothing, waiting for a prompt.
- m1coti 5mo ago
  I would not agree on that point. It really depends on company's structure. I mean it also depends with people that makes the team. I would say there are a lot of unknowns but I would certainly not generalize. How I find your argument is that one distinguished engineer from US could do the same with the use of AI. I worked with both and I know great and bad engineers from both sides. Only thing is that US has a bigger pool of great engineers.
- regularfry 5mo ago
  I think the mechanism here isn't that American engineers are magic. It's that you need that contextual knowledge really close to where the work is actually being done, so that the turnaround for questions, blockages, clarifications, "we've got no work to do", quality level-setting and so on is on the scale of minutes, not time-zones.
- jimbokun 5mo ago
  It doesn’t have to be an American but it does have to be a direct employee of the company ideally working in the same time zone as management and the people defining the requirements.
m1coti 5mo ago
I am not sure this feels right. I agree that the US currently has leading minds in terms of tech, but I am not sure it is too big of difference with the EU knowledge workers. EU is still a lot cheaper then US in terms of wages you would need to pay.
- irishcoffee 5mo ago
  Sure is an interesting thought. None of this is sarcasm: why do US companies deal with the time zone differences and language barriers they won’t need to bother with so much by outsourcing to say, Ireland?
  - surgical_fire 5mo ago
    Er, US companies do outsource to Ireland. Basically every big tech has large offices and employ a lot of people there. The limitation is that Ireland is a relatively small country, and most Irish developers are already employed (which is why Ireland end up being one of the main destinations for tech workers being hired from abroad).
  - regularfry 5mo ago
    The mechanism is often that they'll actually outsource to someone like Accenture, who have teams everywhere, and whose contract managers will try to get their cheapest viable team onto the contract to maximise their margin. If the buyer can't judge the quality of what they're buying, or doesn't know why the resulting hand-offs, delays, mistakes and rework will cost them more than keeping everything in-house ever would have, they're going to have a bad time.
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
  - lmm 5mo ago
    Ireland isn't that much cheaper than, say, Oklahoma. And the cultural differences with Ireland are not a lot smaller than those with India or the Philippines or what have you, once you try to actually start working together. (Yes, all the good developers from Oklahoma move out, but the same is true of Ireland)
asdff 5mo ago
Outsourcing of knowledge workers is still ramping up. The issue in the past was the skills were few and far between internationally. Facilities were also not built. That has changed now in a lot of fields. New campuses have been built in places like Bangalore and Hyderabad, even Singapore. The skills are there now, the training is decent, and you can see that the hiring is going on for very skilled titles in these cities. It is a different animal than just 10 years ago in this.
jimbokun 5mo ago
The “American tier” labor of course is distributed across the world and the top performers in every nation find ways to get paid at something approaching American salary levels. Look at all the international FAANG offices paying high salaries, in purchase pricing parity terms.

regularfry 5mo ago

> I suspect that AI will fail to pan out to the same extent for the same reason why outsourcing hasn't fully panned out My mental model for that is that outsourcing fails where the work is being done organisationally far from the knowledge needed to do it. We know that's true of teams inside organisations, there's been a lot of research on how distance in the organisational tree negatively impacts productivity. Outsourcing is a pathological worst-case of that. The promise (promise! We're not there yet!) of AI is that I can have a cross-functional team on my laptop. Organisational distance is zero. Where previously the outsourced team has to wait for the time zones to roll round so I can answer their blocking question when I get to my email STRICTLY AFTER I have had my coffee, now it's a prompt in a chat window with a button I can click to make a choice in 5 seconds. Delay is gone, cost of delay is gone. > The problems that will come up will be and always have been ongoing maintenance. AI is great at writing new code without a brain behind it, but once you get to the point where you need to refactor code, you start really needing someone with coding experience to guide the AI or veto it's mistakes. Oh, absolutely. That's a minefield. Today. It will be, right up until it isn't. There are ways to set up agents and projects right now that make a dramatic difference to how this part of the picture plays out, but those will sink into the harnesses as time goes on. But also the big problem with maintenance and outsourced teams tends to be the commercial structure around the contract. You get a Build team, who Build the Thing and then: no more features for you, anything you want to add past the original spec costs extra. They hand over to the Run And Maintain team, who get to fix all the bugs that the Build team left but without the knowledge gained from building the thing, but are scaled and located to be absolutely as cheap as the supplier can get away with so probably don't have the skill, inclination, motivation, or permission to take on any restructuring to make the bug fixing easier and they're on the wrong end of the globe so there's a 24-hour latency on any queries. It's a terrible way to set teams up, but it looks good on paper. Again, that's peculiar to outsourcing and completely goes away if I have the same team that built the thing own the thing long-term. That's true if it's humans or AI! > I don't think that's really fixable even with a lot better AI. It's not something that ultimately comes out of the likes of github data. No, it's a harness problem. You need to start from a maintainable point and keep standards in place. It'll take work to get the harnesses there and it's not ubiquitous. You might also need better models, but I've already personally seen big differences in outcomes between projects that took certain steps and others that didn't; it's nothing revolutionary, mostly stuff that works for humans also works for AIs but you need to know to ask for it. > I'm not saying that AI isn't going to make things better, btw, I just don't think we'll see a 20x improvement. Probably more like 1.5 or 2x. I think people radically underestimate the cost of delay. I don't know if 20x is realistic for the AI itself, but I think it's not impossible once the inefficiencies of having to go to other humans is factored in.