4 ms·

Trying to justify current valuations by misrepresenting current model capabilities is a scam. A fair valuation of ~$5B each for Anthropic and OpenAI for the oc

Trying to justify current valuations by misrepresenting current model capabilities is a scam. A fair valuation of ~$5B each for Anthropic and OpenAI for the occasionally useful tools that they had created would be more reasonable.

avarun 5mo ago
Lol. What exactly have you based this "fair valuation" off of? Vibes?
trotro 5mo ago
These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI, yet you think they should have the same valuation as Crocs (yes, the footwear company) ?
- ru552 5mo ago
  Regardless of the marketing material, LLMs are still just using probabilities to guess what the next token is.
  - anuramat 5mo ago
    you think it should be deterministic?
    - bigfishrunning 5mo ago
      If LLMs were configured to be deterministic, instead of the current "small amount of randomness to provide the illusion of a thinking machine", they would be much more useful in exchange for being less exciting to laypeople. In other words, scam.
      - anuramat 5mo ago
        you know you can set the temperature to zero and get exactly that, right?
- monocasa 5mo ago
  > These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI That is the point under contention.
- root_axis 5mo ago
  > These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI This type of rhetoric is exactly why people think it's a scam
- grey-area 5mo ago
  It’s nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either. They do seem to be good at fooling people though.
  - ekianjo 5mo ago
    > nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either. Nevermind what they can do was pure science fiction just 3 years ago?
    - amake 5mo ago
      Are you claiming they have AGI or are "close" to it?
      - SpicyLemonZest 5mo ago
        Yes. I think cutting-edge LLM products obviously have what nearly anyone in 2020 would have called "artificial general intelligence". The shape of the intelligence frontier has turned out to be much more jagged than anyone at the time expected, so I can imagine reasonable objections from someone who has a specific, concrete benchmark of AGI that wasn't invented 6 months ago and isn't yet met. If someone just has a subjective sense that they're not smart enough, I think they're wrong.
        amake 5mo ago
        > obviously If it was obvious I don't think there would be disagreement.
        ekianjo 5mo ago
        There is disagreement mostly because of deeply insecure people.
        amake 5mo ago
        "You only disagree with me because you are insecure" This is not a convincing argument.
- trollbridge 5mo ago
  ... where can I get a subscription to this AGI?
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
varjag 5mo ago
Come on. LinkedIn was bought for 6B.
heipei 5mo ago
$5B valuation on a $30B run rate for Anthropic?
- reenorap 5mo ago
  40B ARR and profitable next month.
  - bigfishrunning 5mo ago
    It's always profitable next month.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]

avarun 5mo ago

Lol. What exactly have you based this "fair valuation" off of? Vibes?

trotro 5mo ago

These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI, yet you think they should have the same valuation as Crocs (yes, the footwear company) ?

ru552 5mo ago
Regardless of the marketing material, LLMs are still just using probabilities to guess what the next token is.
- anuramat 5mo ago
  you think it should be deterministic?
  - bigfishrunning 5mo ago
    If LLMs were configured to be deterministic, instead of the current "small amount of randomness to provide the illusion of a thinking machine", they would be much more useful in exchange for being less exciting to laypeople. In other words, scam.
    - anuramat 5mo ago
      you know you can set the temperature to zero and get exactly that, right?
monocasa 5mo ago
> These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI That is the point under contention.
root_axis 5mo ago
> These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI This type of rhetoric is exactly why people think it's a scam
grey-area 5mo ago
It’s nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either. They do seem to be good at fooling people though.
- ekianjo 5mo ago
  > nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either. Nevermind what they can do was pure science fiction just 3 years ago?
  - amake 5mo ago
    Are you claiming they have AGI or are "close" to it?
    - SpicyLemonZest 5mo ago
      Yes. I think cutting-edge LLM products obviously have what nearly anyone in 2020 would have called "artificial general intelligence". The shape of the intelligence frontier has turned out to be much more jagged than anyone at the time expected, so I can imagine reasonable objections from someone who has a specific, concrete benchmark of AGI that wasn't invented 6 months ago and isn't yet met. If someone just has a subjective sense that they're not smart enough, I think they're wrong.
      - amake 5mo ago
        > obviously If it was obvious I don't think there would be disagreement.
        ekianjo 5mo ago
        There is disagreement mostly because of deeply insecure people.
        amake 5mo ago
        "You only disagree with me because you are insecure" This is not a convincing argument.
trollbridge 5mo ago
... where can I get a subscription to this AGI?
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]

varjag 5mo ago

Come on. LinkedIn was bought for 6B.

heipei 5mo ago

$5B valuation on a $30B run rate for Anthropic?

reenorap 5mo ago
40B ARR and profitable next month.
- bigfishrunning 5mo ago
  It's always profitable next month.
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]