3 ms·
"predicting the future" and "correct analysis of all available information" often aren't all that different.
by Retr0id 5mo ago
"predicting the future" and "correct analysis of all available information" often aren't all that different.
- glitchc 5mo agoA sufficiently large market is indistinguishable from Brownian motion.
- 11101010010001 5mo agoThat's a model.
- AnimalMuppet 5mo agoFrom Schlock Mercenary (quoted from memory, may be inexact): "You cannot see the future. All we are given is the present." "Of course. But if you look closely at the present, you can find loose bits of the future just laying around."
- dheera 5mo agoNot really. Not all players in prediction markets are rational players. A good chunk of it are there for entertainment, and analyze things incorrectly; you can take the other side of those trades, and you won't need to predict the future.
- Retr0id 5mo agoDeciding that someone else's prediction is wrong is a prediction in and of itself.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]