5 ms·
The numbers overall are worse than I expected. I can't believe Serious People are talking about putting this in the market at a trilly. > Starlink seems to be
by runako 5mo ago
The numbers overall are worse than I expected. I can't believe Serious People are talking about putting this in the market at a trilly.
> Starlink seems to be a real cash machine
It has been said more than once that Starlink financials cannot be analyzed apart from SpaceX financials. Very easy to move the launch costs from one entity to the other depending on whether it is more beneficial to show more revenue for SpaceX or more profit for Starlink.
- maipen 5mo agoAs if any of the marketcaps actualy reflect a company's true value. It's never just about financials.
- Analemma_ 5mo agoI can't believe that my index funds are going to be looted to pay for this turd.
- thephyber 5mo agoWe can thank Nasdaq for lowering the standards to fast track SpaceX into an index with only having 5% float. Soon after it lists on the major indexes, we are gonna have some turbulence.
- mnicky 5mo agoTime to invest in some value-stocks index funds then :)
- weregiraffe 5mo agoShort SpaceX to compensate
- mooreds 5mo agoI thought the same darn thing. Too bad there's not a ex-Space-X index fund.
- aeternum 5mo agoLooks like it's gonna be closer to 2 trilly
- abirch 5mo agoWhen do we call AI bubble? Like 2 trillion value and losing billions.
- 3eb7988a1663 5mo agoWhat is a realistic scenario for how this plays out? After index funds mechanically buy SpaceX, the insider lock out expires and they all sell - how low does SpaceX go? Will reality hit and a $2T valuation instantly drops to a more "reasonable" value for an unprofitable company? Will it stay in the clouds? Tesla seems in a world of hurt unless robots start making space centers from moon rocks, yet that is also defying gravity.
- maerF0x0 5mo agoWhy are index funds going to buy it? Market cap is not the only inclusion metric for S&P500, for example.
- zippothrowaway 5mo agoThey just changed the rules for NASDAQ and they are changing the rules for S&P500. The game is rigged. Our pensions and 401Ks are being forced to buy this slop. They can't resist taking all of the money off the table.
- amluto 5mo agoThe use of EBITDA for Starlink is also interesting. For something like terrestrial fiber, I can imagine thinking that there’s a lot of depreciation on the books, but that most of the equipment keeps working after the depreciation period or is cheaper to replace than it was to buy, and that the right of ways and attachments don’t really depreciate. But Starlink satellites are actually gone at the end of their useful life. I have not dug into the filing to see how this really breaks down.
- Robotbeat 5mo agoStarlink satellites can likely have their life extended by quite a bit, like past constellation satellites did. But it doesn’t really matter as SpaceX is still upgrading capability like crazy. Starship will mean a factor of 10-100x Starlink capacity expansion.
- jcattle 5mo agoI mean, the SpaceX bet is that what you mention for terrestrial fiber > or is cheaper to replace than it was to buy will also hold true for cost of mass to orbit. There's a lot riding on making that prediction come true for SpaceX, hence all the CapEx going into Starship.
- huevosabio 5mo agoThe space launch operating loss is like 10% of the Starlink operating income. So Starlink is a cash cow!
- throwaway85825 5mo agoThe launch market is just very small and always has been.