4 ms·

> Yes, actually - Iran is charging tolls and was not doing that before. This is in the face of an American naval blockade right in their neighborhood. That is a

by ericmay 5mo ago

> Yes, actually - Iran is charging tolls and was not doing that before. This is in the face of an American naval blockade right in their neighborhood. That is an affront to power, at least for the moment. I send a bill to every car that passes by my street. It's weird, none of them ever pay it. Iran can charge whatever it wants, but as long as America holds the blockade it doesn't matter. There's a misunderstanding that Iran "controls" the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't. Control doesn't mean you simply stop others from exercising action, because if that's the case the US is also stopping any ships that Iran allows and is therefore in control. > The China point is really immaterial to the instant issue of the Strait, but even there China is very obviously growing more aggressive (cf the recent trip of the Taiwanese president where he had to sneak out of his nation). Well you can't really separate China out from the initial comment I responded to. How is American power the weakest it has ever been but then it's also not changed at all with respect to China? These kinds of statements just don't make sense. It's the kind of thing that feels good to say but is wrong. > Yes, but now the Strait transit is being dictated by the new rulers. But it's not because the US controls it too. > Iran has bombed over a dozen US installations, probably the greatest damage to US military installations in recent memory, if ever. Yea, now imagine Iran quadruples its drone and missile stockpile and then closes the Strait and then proceeds with accelerating development of nuclear weapons. I'm not sure why folks seem to lack the capacity to project future actions

ceejayoz 5mo ago
> I send a bill to every car that passes by my street. It's weird, none of them ever pay it. Also weird: Barely any cars on the street now! https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/strait-of-hormuz-ports-traffic-trump-us-iran-war-rcna331507 https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/strait-of-hormuz-ports... Wonder if that's related.
- ericmay 5mo ago
  There's plenty of cars on the street. I'd recommend checking your state department of highways as they usually have live streams of traffic at certain intersections, highways, and other areas.
  - ceejayoz 5mo ago
    [flagged]
    - ericmay 5mo ago
      Are you an LLM? > This clearly lacks the context of the conversation thread, to a comedically goofy looking extent. Are you referring to your own statement where you stated there are "barely any cars on the street". Where do you live where that's true? I live in Ohio - believe me there's plenty of cars on the street.
      - ceejayoz 5mo ago
        > Are you referring to your own statement… I'm referring to the fucking Strait of Hormuz, where the tolls and attacks have resulted in almost no "cars" on the "road".
        ericmay 5mo ago
        Here's a link (I don't know what state you live in but presumably you have the same): https://ohgo.com https://ohgo.com From here you can select various web cams and see that the claim that there are "almost no cars on the road" is objectively false. If you're still confused, wait about 4 hours until 5:30 PM Eastern Time and you can see the traffic for yourself if you select a major city.
        ceejayoz 5mo ago
        [flagged]
    - infinet 5mo ago
      [flagged]
bonsai_spool 5mo ago
> Well you can't really separate China out from the initial comment I responded to You're the first one to mention China. I think this is a bot account, or someone who is letting an LLM write to HN on their behalf.
- ericmay 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
sophacles 5mo ago
> Well you can't really separate China out from the initial comment I responded to. How is American power the weakest it has ever been but then it's also not changed at all with respect to China? These kinds of statements just don't make sense. It's the kind of thing that feels good to say but is wrong. What you're not to accept/acknowledge is this type of reasoning: The US used to be power level 9000 [for several decades, in the past going back to the 1940s or before] Now the us is power level 7000 China is currently power level 5000 The statement "The US is weaker than it ever has been [ed. in the lifetime of any current decision maker and relevant to current geopolitical decisions]" is true. The fact that it's still stronger than China is also true. It's absurd to pretend you don't understand this. > Yea, now imagine Iran quadruples its drone and missile stockpile and then closes the Strait and then proceeds with accelerating development of nuclear weapons. I'm not sure why folks seem to lack the capacity to project future actions What evidence is there that Iran would have shut down the strait at all? The only time they've done so in the last 40+ years is in response to a direct, unnecessary attack. What evidence is there that Iran would behave differently than any other nation with nuclear weapons - that is use them as a deterrent to prevent pointless meddling by other countries prone to an unnecessary attack? It seems like what you call a "lack [of] capacity to project future actions" might just be people wanting to avoid wild speculation.
- ericmay 5mo ago
  > It's absurd to pretend you don't understand this. If you want to phrase what that person wrote in this way, then you're going to have to provide deeper analysis than a Dragon Ball Z style power comparison. > What evidence is there that Iran would have shut down the strait at all? The only time they've done so in the last 40+ years is in response to a direct, unnecessary attack. While neither of us have intelligence on Iran, you can reason about their activities and speculate on future actions. In the case of the Strait, Iran was stockpiling missiles and drone capabilities and if they continued to do so at the rate they were there is a tipping point where even the mighty US military would struggle to deal with this. Someone else commented about the US Military not learning anything from the Ukraine war, but I'd submit it was the opposite. We saw how devastating cheap missiles and drones were, and realized if we didn't do something now then Iran could continue stockpiling, declare the Strait closed pending payment, and then work on a nuclear weapon as well leaving the United States (since we're the only one that can do anything) with very limited and unpalatable options. Now it's fair, certainly, to speculate that Iran had no intention of closing the Strait or whatever, but their actions seem to indicate the opposite. You can also ask why is it that Iran is the only country stockpiling these weapons systems, working on a nuclear weapon, chanting death to America, and whatnot? Maybe if they stopped doing those things we wouldn't be in this situation. But why would they stop when the IRGC and religious fanatical leadership want to actually do those things? I think it's unfair to characterize this as wild speculation when anyone can read for themselves from reliable sources about Iran's activities. There seems to be this impression that the Iranian government is like this peaceful government and oh if only the US would just stop bothering them, but that simply does not stand up to reality.

by ericmay 5mo ago

ceejayoz 5mo ago

> I send a bill to every car that passes by my street. It's weird, none of them ever pay it. Also weird: Barely any cars on the street now! https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/strait-of-hormuz-ports-traffic-trump-us-iran-war-rcna331507 https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/strait-of-hormuz-ports... Wonder if that's related.

ericmay 5mo ago
There's plenty of cars on the street. I'd recommend checking your state department of highways as they usually have live streams of traffic at certain intersections, highways, and other areas.
- ceejayoz 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - ericmay 5mo ago
    Are you an LLM? > This clearly lacks the context of the conversation thread, to a comedically goofy looking extent. Are you referring to your own statement where you stated there are "barely any cars on the street". Where do you live where that's true? I live in Ohio - believe me there's plenty of cars on the street.
    - ceejayoz 5mo ago
      > Are you referring to your own statement… I'm referring to the fucking Strait of Hormuz, where the tolls and attacks have resulted in almost no "cars" on the "road".
      - ericmay 5mo ago
        Here's a link (I don't know what state you live in but presumably you have the same): https://ohgo.com https://ohgo.com From here you can select various web cams and see that the claim that there are "almost no cars on the road" is objectively false. If you're still confused, wait about 4 hours until 5:30 PM Eastern Time and you can see the traffic for yourself if you select a major city.
        ceejayoz 5mo ago
        [flagged]
  - infinet 5mo ago
    [flagged]

bonsai_spool 5mo ago

> Well you can't really separate China out from the initial comment I responded to You're the first one to mention China. I think this is a bot account, or someone who is letting an LLM write to HN on their behalf.

ericmay 5mo ago
[flagged]
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]

sophacles 5mo ago

> Well you can't really separate China out from the initial comment I responded to. How is American power the weakest it has ever been but then it's also not changed at all with respect to China? These kinds of statements just don't make sense. It's the kind of thing that feels good to say but is wrong. What you're not to accept/acknowledge is this type of reasoning: The US used to be power level 9000 [for several decades, in the past going back to the 1940s or before] Now the us is power level 7000 China is currently power level 5000 The statement "The US is weaker than it ever has been [ed. in the lifetime of any current decision maker and relevant to current geopolitical decisions]" is true. The fact that it's still stronger than China is also true. It's absurd to pretend you don't understand this. > Yea, now imagine Iran quadruples its drone and missile stockpile and then closes the Strait and then proceeds with accelerating development of nuclear weapons. I'm not sure why folks seem to lack the capacity to project future actions What evidence is there that Iran would have shut down the strait at all? The only time they've done so in the last 40+ years is in response to a direct, unnecessary attack. What evidence is there that Iran would behave differently than any other nation with nuclear weapons - that is use them as a deterrent to prevent pointless meddling by other countries prone to an unnecessary attack? It seems like what you call a "lack [of] capacity to project future actions" might just be people wanting to avoid wild speculation.

ericmay 5mo ago
> It's absurd to pretend you don't understand this. If you want to phrase what that person wrote in this way, then you're going to have to provide deeper analysis than a Dragon Ball Z style power comparison. > What evidence is there that Iran would have shut down the strait at all? The only time they've done so in the last 40+ years is in response to a direct, unnecessary attack. While neither of us have intelligence on Iran, you can reason about their activities and speculate on future actions. In the case of the Strait, Iran was stockpiling missiles and drone capabilities and if they continued to do so at the rate they were there is a tipping point where even the mighty US military would struggle to deal with this. Someone else commented about the US Military not learning anything from the Ukraine war, but I'd submit it was the opposite. We saw how devastating cheap missiles and drones were, and realized if we didn't do something now then Iran could continue stockpiling, declare the Strait closed pending payment, and then work on a nuclear weapon as well leaving the United States (since we're the only one that can do anything) with very limited and unpalatable options. Now it's fair, certainly, to speculate that Iran had no intention of closing the Strait or whatever, but their actions seem to indicate the opposite. You can also ask why is it that Iran is the only country stockpiling these weapons systems, working on a nuclear weapon, chanting death to America, and whatnot? Maybe if they stopped doing those things we wouldn't be in this situation. But why would they stop when the IRGC and religious fanatical leadership want to actually do those things? I think it's unfair to characterize this as wild speculation when anyone can read for themselves from reliable sources about Iran's activities. There seems to be this impression that the Iranian government is like this peaceful government and oh if only the US would just stop bothering them, but that simply does not stand up to reality.