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You're taking this claim way too seriously. Iran is at war. This part of the information war. Nobody is going to pay fees to Iran to use internet cables.

LurkandComment 5mo ago
See in an information war, it doesn't have to be true to be dangerous, and never assume how stock prices might effect people's resileance. The greater point is there are cans of worms that are opening that weren't anticipated. This is just one example;].
csoups14 5mo ago
This was all theory before the war. Now Iran knows they can blockade that Strait and makes these demands so they have much more leverage.
- tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
  They can make all the demands they want. I can demand you give me a thousand bitcoin to not burn your house down. That doesn't mean it has any remote chance of happening.
  - sophacles 5mo ago
    You're going to burn down his house no matter what?
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > Now Iran knows they can blockade that Strait and makes these demands so they have much more leverage Tehran has more potential leverage inasmuch as they've credibly demonstrated they can block the Strait. Whether they have more actual leverage than before is uncertain–trade flows are routing around them. And their own shores remain blockaded. (Just because the U.S. has less leverage than it did before doesn't mean Iran necessarily has more.)
  - gmerc 5mo ago
    It’s not like they can shut down the main air corridor to Asia if they please, right?
    - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
      > not like they can shut down the main air corridor to Asia "Shut down" is not particularly accurate. America and Europe can route around. The only ones fucked are the Gulf carriers.
- linhns 5mo ago
  I don't think they can blockade it for long anymore.
gowld 5mo ago
What is nobody going to do if Iran military cuts cables? Or blocks repair ships after normal accidental damage?
- tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
  I imagine they'll be able to cut exactly one cable before the US starts bombing them again. If my goal is to profit from subsea cables I don't own, getting bombed doesn't sound like a great strategy if I'm Iran. It's information war to scare US companies away from the middle east.
  - pessimizer 5mo ago
    Do you think the US was holding back on bombing Iran? It doesn't work; they have always prepared for an American attack, because they are a government that was formed by overthrowing the dictatorship that the US installed after destroying their democracy, and the US has been constantly threatening them ever since. This is the only fight they've been preparing for. They knew they were going to be facing an overwhelmingly superior navy and air force. That's why everything is dug in, buried and hidden. It's also why the propagandistic idea that they're a "terrorist state" is stupid, because a terrorist state would be prepared to do terrorist damage. The only terrorist arming and funding was from the US and Israel to people in Iran. I don't even see any heightened security at any level in the US - we're not even expecting anything. Don't believe that the US can eradicate all ability for Iran to do something as trivial as cutting an undersea cable anytime soon. They would still have the ability cut the cables as a last gasp after they were totally defeated at every level.
10000truths 5mo ago
What's to stop Iran from using the threat of cutting those cables as leverage? A speedboat and a depth charge are all it takes, and neither are particularly difficult to make.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
- tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
  > What's to stop Iran What's to stop them? The enormous pile of ordnance floating in the gulf of oman that can be easily dropped on Tehran, for one...
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    > The enormous pile of ordnance floating in the gulf of oman that can be easily dropped on Tehran, for one Probably not. The other comment is right: cutting cables means having its own cables cut. (Tehran is also probably weighing whether it wants to continue mobilising almost all of its neighbors against itself. Trashing e.g. Kuwait for shits and giggles isn't strategically productive.)
    - CamperBob2 5mo ago
      Tehran is also probably weighing whether it wants to continue mobilising almost all of its neighbors against itself Interesting point. It might be a good time for some good old-fashioned false-flag action.
      - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > might be a good time for some good old-fashioned false-flag action It's always "a good time for some good old-fashioned false-flag action" if you can pull it off. Given Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are already bombing Iran, and are now unaligned, there wouldn't be much for the U.S. to gain from something like this. (And if Israel were to pull off a false-flag operation against the U.S. now isn't better or worse than tomorrow or yesterday.)

LurkandComment 5mo ago

See in an information war, it doesn't have to be true to be dangerous, and never assume how stock prices might effect people's resileance. The greater point is there are cans of worms that are opening that weren't anticipated. This is just one example;].

csoups14 5mo ago

This was all theory before the war. Now Iran knows they can blockade that Strait and makes these demands so they have much more leverage.

tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
They can make all the demands they want. I can demand you give me a thousand bitcoin to not burn your house down. That doesn't mean it has any remote chance of happening.
- sophacles 5mo ago
  You're going to burn down his house no matter what?
JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> Now Iran knows they can blockade that Strait and makes these demands so they have much more leverage Tehran has more potential leverage inasmuch as they've credibly demonstrated they can block the Strait. Whether they have more actual leverage than before is uncertain–trade flows are routing around them. And their own shores remain blockaded. (Just because the U.S. has less leverage than it did before doesn't mean Iran necessarily has more.)
- gmerc 5mo ago
  It’s not like they can shut down the main air corridor to Asia if they please, right?
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    > not like they can shut down the main air corridor to Asia "Shut down" is not particularly accurate. America and Europe can route around. The only ones fucked are the Gulf carriers.
linhns 5mo ago
I don't think they can blockade it for long anymore.

gowld 5mo ago

What is nobody going to do if Iran military cuts cables? Or blocks repair ships after normal accidental damage?

tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
I imagine they'll be able to cut exactly one cable before the US starts bombing them again. If my goal is to profit from subsea cables I don't own, getting bombed doesn't sound like a great strategy if I'm Iran. It's information war to scare US companies away from the middle east.
- pessimizer 5mo ago
  Do you think the US was holding back on bombing Iran? It doesn't work; they have always prepared for an American attack, because they are a government that was formed by overthrowing the dictatorship that the US installed after destroying their democracy, and the US has been constantly threatening them ever since. This is the only fight they've been preparing for. They knew they were going to be facing an overwhelmingly superior navy and air force. That's why everything is dug in, buried and hidden. It's also why the propagandistic idea that they're a "terrorist state" is stupid, because a terrorist state would be prepared to do terrorist damage. The only terrorist arming and funding was from the US and Israel to people in Iran. I don't even see any heightened security at any level in the US - we're not even expecting anything. Don't believe that the US can eradicate all ability for Iran to do something as trivial as cutting an undersea cable anytime soon. They would still have the ability cut the cables as a last gasp after they were totally defeated at every level.

10000truths 5mo ago

What's to stop Iran from using the threat of cutting those cables as leverage? A speedboat and a depth charge are all it takes, and neither are particularly difficult to make.

deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]
tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
> What's to stop Iran What's to stop them? The enormous pile of ordnance floating in the gulf of oman that can be easily dropped on Tehran, for one...
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > The enormous pile of ordnance floating in the gulf of oman that can be easily dropped on Tehran, for one Probably not. The other comment is right: cutting cables means having its own cables cut. (Tehran is also probably weighing whether it wants to continue mobilising almost all of its neighbors against itself. Trashing e.g. Kuwait for shits and giggles isn't strategically productive.)
  - CamperBob2 5mo ago
    Tehran is also probably weighing whether it wants to continue mobilising almost all of its neighbors against itself Interesting point. It might be a good time for some good old-fashioned false-flag action.
    - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
      > might be a good time for some good old-fashioned false-flag action It's always "a good time for some good old-fashioned false-flag action" if you can pull it off. Given Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are already bombing Iran, and are now unaligned, there wouldn't be much for the U.S. to gain from something like this. (And if Israel were to pull off a false-flag operation against the U.S. now isn't better or worse than tomorrow or yesterday.)