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Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their s

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their shares in other companies to buy in at the IPO, then when the next one goes public they might sell the shares they just bought to jump onto the next one and so on. I don't think that there was a situation like this ever before.

vincent_s 5mo ago
Another scenario would be that they release very little shares but because of their market cap they make up a significant portion of an index so index funds are forced to buy a lot of their shares which would drive prices to insane heights.
JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares What are you basing this on?
- devmor 5mo ago
  They might be conflating the valuation of these three companies with one of the recent analyses that the presumed valuation of the current “AI Economy” is an order of magnitude over the valuation of the total wealth of the world.
- deleted 5mo ago
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- vincent_s 5mo ago
  The amount of new shares for sale could be very large in those three IPOs: SpaceX: up to $75B [1] OpenAI: at least $60B [2] Anthropic: more than $60B [3] Together, that would be about $195B+ of IPO shares to buy. For comparison, all U.S. IPOs together raised $44.0B in 2025 [4]. All IPOs in the world together raised $171.8B in 2025 [5]. So where should the money come from? Either from selling shares in other companies or from loaning money which would only make sense if the Fed brings back ZIRP. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-targets-more-than-2-trillion-valuation-ipo-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-ta... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-jugg... [3] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-considers-ipo-as-soon-as-q4-2026-the-information-4584016 https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-c... [4] https://www.renaissancecapital.com/review/2025USReview_Public.pdf https://www.renaissancecapital.com/review/2025USReview_Publi... [5] https://www.ey.com/en_ie/newsroom/2026/01/global-ipo-market-stabilises-in-2025-while-2026-pipeline-signals-potential-ai-led-mega-wave https://www.ey.com/en_ie/newsroom/2026/01/global-ipo-market-...
  - nonethewiser 5mo ago
    >So where should the money come from? Selling shares of other companies. If you think there isn't enough capital headroom, it's not SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic you should be worried about.
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    > Together, that would be about $195B+ of IPO shares to buy...For comparison, all U.S. IPOs together raised $44.0B in 2025 Net buying of corporate equities by American households, trusts, funds and non-profits has averaged $660bn per year for the last few years [1]. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f224.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22... line 26, 2023 to 2025
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vincent_s 5mo ago

Another scenario would be that they release very little shares but because of their market cap they make up a significant portion of an index so index funds are forced to buy a lot of their shares which would drive prices to insane heights.

JumpCrisscross 5mo ago

> There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares What are you basing this on?

devmor 5mo ago
They might be conflating the valuation of these three companies with one of the recent analyses that the presumed valuation of the current “AI Economy” is an order of magnitude over the valuation of the total wealth of the world.
deleted 5mo ago
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vincent_s 5mo ago
The amount of new shares for sale could be very large in those three IPOs: SpaceX: up to $75B [1] OpenAI: at least $60B [2] Anthropic: more than $60B [3] Together, that would be about $195B+ of IPO shares to buy. For comparison, all U.S. IPOs together raised $44.0B in 2025 [4]. All IPOs in the world together raised $171.8B in 2025 [5]. So where should the money come from? Either from selling shares in other companies or from loaning money which would only make sense if the Fed brings back ZIRP. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-targets-more-than-2-trillion-valuation-ipo-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-ta... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-jugg... [3] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-considers-ipo-as-soon-as-q4-2026-the-information-4584016 https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-c... [4] https://www.renaissancecapital.com/review/2025USReview_Public.pdf https://www.renaissancecapital.com/review/2025USReview_Publi... [5] https://www.ey.com/en_ie/newsroom/2026/01/global-ipo-market-stabilises-in-2025-while-2026-pipeline-signals-potential-ai-led-mega-wave https://www.ey.com/en_ie/newsroom/2026/01/global-ipo-market-...
- nonethewiser 5mo ago
  >So where should the money come from? Selling shares of other companies. If you think there isn't enough capital headroom, it's not SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic you should be worried about.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > Together, that would be about $195B+ of IPO shares to buy...For comparison, all U.S. IPOs together raised $44.0B in 2025 Net buying of corporate equities by American households, trusts, funds and non-profits has averaged $660bn per year for the last few years [1]. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f224.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22... line 26, 2023 to 2025
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