3 ms·
It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to t
by cmiles8 5mo ago
It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet.
Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy index stocks) think they’re horribly over valued and will tank once floating.
Get your popcorn ready.
- re-thc 5mo ago> because many funds (some of whom are required to buy index stocks) think they’re horribly over valued and will tank once floating Most of S&P 500 have shares in these anyway e.g. Microsoft and OpenAI. Not really making THAT much of a difference.
- SJMG 5mo agoNot to mention Tesla.
- cmiles8 5mo ago? No. These companies are not publicly traded yet so they are not in these indices. Funds are fighting to keep them out so they’re not required to buy stocks they think will tank.
- twalla 5mo agoThere is indirect exposure to Anthropic/OpenAI through all the incestuous partnerships between hyperscalers and NVDA
- re-thc 5mo agoExactly. Google has SpaceX stock. To make matters worse all the banks, insurers and investment firms in that S&P list are likely in there somewhere too. I'm sure I'm missing a whole lot more.
- dgellow 5mo agoIndirect exposure is just a completely different beast than direct exposure. It’s a different level of risk altogether
- re-thc 5mo ago> It’s a different level of risk altogether In this case, really? Between Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, Amazon and everyone else in that S&P 500 there's not >50% of OpenAI already? It's not that indirect. Microsoft alone is 27%.
- dgellow 5mo agoHmm, actually I would be interested to get actual number regarding the exposure to OpenAI and Anthropic in S&Py you might be right, completely possible that I underestimated
- cmiles8 5mo agoTrue, but that’s tiny relative to these companies going public themselves. Totally different ballgames
- yytt32 5mo agolol don’t compare private market pricing where the line only goes up and to the right.
- WarmWash 5mo ago>The market is going to struggle to absorb It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.
- spiderfarmer 5mo agoSee why it doesn’t trickle down?
- JumpCrisscross 5mo agoHas anyone done a first-order estimate of the tax windfall about to hit state and federal coffers?
- WarmWash 5mo agoIt is trickled down money. Liquid cash looking for a home is overwhelmingly white/blue collar retirement money. Billionaire money is almost always a totally undiversified portfolio of their own company. There are billions of people globally who save money and want it to grow, so they hand it over weekly to institutions that do asset management. It's these institutions that are seeking new investments, but the money isn't their own, it's largely everyday people's savings.
- nonethewiser 5mo agoCan you elaborate on what you mean?
- Spooky23 5mo agoYou're thinking backwards. The money is parked in these companies. They basically figured out a strategy to maximize return in an environment where the public market is dominated by passive capital. It's time for Google/Elon/Softbank/sovereign wealth funds, etc to cash out. For you, it's time to tilt to bond and value.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
- vincent_s 5mo agoAnthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their shares in other companies to buy in at the IPO, then when the next one goes public they might sell the shares they just bought to jump onto the next one and so on. I don't think that there was a situation like this ever before.
- vincent_s 5mo agoAnother scenario would be that they release very little shares but because of their market cap they make up a significant portion of an index so index funds are forced to buy a lot of their shares which would drive prices to insane heights.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago> There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares What are you basing this on?
- devmor 5mo agoThey might be conflating the valuation of these three companies with one of the recent analyses that the presumed valuation of the current “AI Economy” is an order of magnitude over the valuation of the total wealth of the world.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- vincent_s 5mo agoThe amount of new shares for sale could be very large in those three IPOs: SpaceX: up to $75B [1] OpenAI: at least $60B [2] Anthropic: more than $60B [3] Together, that would be about $195B+ of IPO shares to buy. For comparison, all U.S. IPOs together raised $44.0B in 2025 [4]. All IPOs in the world together raised $171.8B in 2025 [5]. So where should the money come from? Either from selling shares in other companies or from loaning money which would only make sense if the Fed brings back ZIRP. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-targets-more-than-2-trillion-valuation-ipo-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-ta... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-jugg... [3] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-considers-ipo-as-soon-as-q4-2026-the-information-4584016 https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-c... [4] https://www.renaissancecapital.com/review/2025USReview_Public.pdf https://www.renaissancecapital.com/review/2025USReview_Publi... [5] https://www.ey.com/en_ie/newsroom/2026/01/global-ipo-market-stabilises-in-2025-while-2026-pipeline-signals-potential-ai-led-mega-wave https://www.ey.com/en_ie/newsroom/2026/01/global-ipo-market-...
- miroljub 5mo agoHow is that an issue? Many funds that replicate an index are not doing full replication anyway. They do some kind of sampling that includes way fewer stocks than defined in the index. What would stop a fund from just not including those stocks because of sampling? Or waiting for time to settle, since even with full physical replication, they are not required to jump in and buy immediately after IPO.
- HWR_14 5mo agoIndex funds make legal commitments to replicate the entire index. I have no idea why you think they use sampling. The whole point of an index fund is I'm not paying someone to try to guess what stocks are going to under/over perform the S&P. And when they are required to buy is not really a mystery either. they have very little discretion.
- MagicMoonlight 5mo agoBut normally they wait a year for new companies, whereas Sam and friends have managed to buy some officials and have made it a day-one-rug-pull.
- dgellow 5mo agoNASDAQ did changes to be able to fast track SpaceX, S&P is looking at the same as far as I understood: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-rule-could-fast-track-spacex-ipo-for-nasdaq-index-inclusion-172327734.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-rule-could-fast-track-spa...
- thomashobohm 5mo agoMany Vanguard index funds use sampling, in fact. It's more complicated than you think.
- the__alchemist 5mo agoRegarding S&P: That is my acute concern. For individual investors, they can be removed by taking an a short position corresponding to the stock's index weight. (I do this for TSLA). More broadly, it exposes people who only use index funds or don't have shorting in their tool box (passive investors for example) to big risk.
- twiceaday 5mo agoTesla is currently 2.2% of S&P 500. If it halves, losing $800,000,000,000 usd market cap, the index will go down by 1.1%. What big risk?
- cmiles8 5mo ago1.1% is about 15% of the typical returns for a year in the S&P500, from a single stock. Folks and funds invest here for diversity precisely to limit such impacts. It’s a big risk and that’s why there’s a big fuss right now to keep these guys out of the index.
- re-thc 5mo ago> What big risk? Tesla doesn't drag everyone else down. >50% of the S&P 500 is involved with these AI providers. There will be a cascading effect.
- SlinkyOnStairs 5mo agoThe risk is no longer a single company with a dumb CEO tanking. Now the risk is a massive stockmarket wide collapse. Over a third of the S&P 500 is AI heavy tech stocks. With how reliant Nvidia is on AI compute sales, there's a real risk that at least 7% of the market disappears instantly, and everything else will hurt massively as well. You can't hedge against that. There's a good chance this will have contagion solely from the sheer size of a dotcom style crash in our current stock market. Pension funds would start selling off their unrelated assets to cover their losses. Nevermind any secondary concerns; How balls deep private equity and private credit are in AI. How useless the current US administration is at both economic and monetary policy.
- rhplus 5mo agoInteresting yes. Money wouldn’t just be diverted from other US stocks though. Foreign money has increasing buying power as USD weakens against certain currencies and the upside of these IPOs is certainly more attractive to global investors than parking money is lack luster real-estate or bond or cash alternatives. TINA (to US stock market) and all that.
- ReptileMan 5mo agoI think that SpaceX and OpenAI will be ok. Ukraine war showed that Starlink is the real deal - all of Ukraine's successes (or reversed losses) in the last few months are mostly due to Starlink cutting off Russia. OpenAI seem to have the tech on par with Anthropic and world class con artist at the top and access to more compute. So when the tsunami of Chinese models and silicone materializes - Anthropic will be most vulnerable.
- nonethewiser 5mo agoHuh. Anthropic seems like they are in a significantly better position tech and finance-wise.
- re-thc 5mo ago> Ukraine war showed that Starlink is the real deal That held before SpaceX merged X, xAI and friends. Those are bleeding way more money than Starlink can recover.
- cindyllm 5mo ago[dead]
- red-iron-pine 5mo agothere is certainty more than just starlink going dark that is driving AFU success. that said, it definitely helped
- jollyllama 5mo agoThen Anthropic will gain, people will profit take, and it'll all flow back out to everything else.