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> The economics never worked either. An average Tesla Solar Roof costs approximately $106,000 before incentives, compared to roughly $60,000 for a traditional r

> The economics never worked either. An average Tesla Solar Roof costs approximately $106,000 before incentives, compared to roughly $60,000 for a traditional roof replacement plus conventional solar panels — a $46,000 premium. The payback period stretches to 15-25 years, compared to 7-12 years for traditional panels. Yikes that’s a lot of money. For most people buying solar, I think payback period is probably the biggest consideration.

ericpauley 5mo ago
Are these payback periods factoring in opportunity cost? If not the game is already lost. If so periods that long are so sensitive to alternate asset returns that they could easily be infinity.
- Neywiny 5mo ago
  Opportunity cost meaning investing with standard rule of thumb returns? I think usually it's just total cost at installation divided by the product of power generation and energy cost. So that's $ / (W x $/Wh), which should reduce down to just hours that can be trivially converted to years
  - ejoso 5mo ago
    Cost of alternative investments not pursued as a result of deployed capital.
    - hello8402 5mo ago
      > Cost of alternative investments not pursued as a result of deployed capital. Once you’re achieving 30-50% annual returns over 20-30 year horizons (PE, HFT, invite-only HF) , you stop caring about cost of capital for anything less than US$1 million. But 10% VTI / VOO, sure, factor that 10% into your excel.
      - ejoso 5mo ago
        Bully for you
- loeg 5mo ago
  Usually, no.
- freetime2 5mo ago
  No - these numbers likely do not factor in opportunity cost. And yes, you can probably earn a better return elsewhere. But the reasons that I installed rooftop solar were: * Diversification. These days stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, and even precious metals are increasingly correlated [1]. Solar panels offer pretty consistent returns regardless of what is happening in the stock market. * Backup power. I live in an area that is prone to natural disasters. Having a backup power source gives me a bit of peace of mind. * Hedge against increasing energy prices. My solar panels have actually performed better than I expected due to electricity prices increasing faster than I expected. * Clean energy. When I turn on my A/C in the summer I take some enjoyment from the fact that it's powered by the panels on my roof and not burning fossil fuels. * Entertainment. I enjoy nerding out and learning about the tech, monitoring output, etc. A lot of people think solar panels are ugly but I actually like the way they look. Yes the S&P 500 would have returned signficantly more than my solar panels. But I already have a lot invested in the S&P 500, solar panels were fairly inexpensive and don't make up a significant portion of my overall investments, and the psychological benefits outweigh whatever opportunity cost I have incurred. There is also the option to finance them. You need to be careful with financing, as I think there are a lot of predatory offers out there. But if you are buying or building a house, for example, and can roll the cost of the panels into your mortgage, then that's going to reduce the up front cost and hence the opportunity cost. But yeah when you get into the $100K range for a Tesla solar roof, then I think that starts to be a pretty substantial amount for most people that can be better spent elsewhere. Not to mention the delays, customer service issues, etc that people have experienced with Tesla - which can easily offset any peace of mind benefits. [1] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/14/how-to-build-a-portfolio-when-bonds-fail-to-buffer-stocks https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/14/h...
  - bruce511 5mo ago
    I'm in the same camp as you. I'll add that my panels are returning 16% on capital spent, and it's going up as electricity prices go up. So, yes, I could probably get a higher return if I invested that capital elsewhere, but, apart from the diversification, I get benefits beyond the raw financial return. Firstly, earlier this year, we had a cable coming into the house fail. By the time the electrician and city had done all they needed to do to sort it out, almost 4 days had passed. We would have been without power for that time. As it happens we ran completely on solar for that period - freezers stayed frozen, could run the laundry, etc. Some stuff was limited (no oven, no hot water) but the impact was minimal compared to what it might have been. Secondly, during the day at least, I'm not really fussed about electricity usage. If lights are on, or AC is on or whatever. So there's less "hey, that light is costing money" etc. So we end up using more electricity, but the marginal cost (during the day) is 0. My next car is electric (already on order) and that can charge at home as well (during the day, I work from home) and so that just increases the return (utilization of available power goes up.) From a financial point of view, for me, it's a no-brainer. Obviously ymmv - everyone's numbers are different. For me the payback is in the 5-6 year range (probably under 5 once the car comes online.)
kccqzy 5mo ago
In my opinion, the Tesla Solar Roof really appealed to people who wanted good looks. They probably already have their “forever” homes and are not thinking of moving at all. It is more about the emotional attachment to this part of your home than its functional aspects. You can buy a $100 dining table from IKEA or you can buy a $1,000 dining table from Pottery Barn or you can buy a custom $5,000 dining table made from a solid piece of wood. It's the same functionality but emotionally very different.
- brikym 5mo ago
  But we're talking about a utility here. If someone just wants to own fashionable things there are better ways to do that.
  - akerl_ 5mo ago
    Not if the two things you want are "solar power for your home" and "for your roof to not be covered in obvious solar panels". I have a Tesla solar roof. I bought it knowing there were cheaper options for equivalent solar power because I liked the aesthetics.
    - brikym 5mo ago
      Does it actually make sense financially vs investing in something else?
      - DougN7 5mo ago
        No it doesn’t, but style never makes financial sense.
      - akerl_ 5mo ago
        Not really, no.
      - Den_VR 5mo ago
        The Bottega Veneta of roof tiles.
gtowey 5mo ago
It's even worse than that. They're making the comparison of a solar roof to a new standard roof plus solar panels, but most people absolutely do not replace their roof when they get panels so the cost difference is more like 106k vs 30k.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
- imtringued 5mo ago
  There are companies that will install solar shingles into your roof and they only need to remove tiles in the places where the panels will be installed, so the Tesla Solar Roof is expensive even compared to an aesthetically pleasing roof.
sergiotapia 5mo ago
I would love some kind of solar, but when I know how cheap it is to install it in places like Africa AND use cutting edge chinese solar/battery tech, my enthusiasm to pay a USA premium makes me just close the tabs. It's too expensive in america for some reason.
- freetime2 5mo ago
  I agree it's frustrating. But shouldn't your decision be based on whether it makes financial sense for you, and not whether someone else in a completely different market with a completely different cost structure is paying a lower price than you?
- dzhiurgis 5mo ago
  You need to shop around. Problem is solar companies just hiring contractors with little value add. Spend some time looking for contractor yourself and you’ll easily save 30%.
- davedx 5mo ago
  IME a lot of the difference between solar for the US vs Europe for example, is that the energy usage in the US is way higher (often due to HVAC usage), so you just need much larger sized systems than in Europe if you want to cover your usage fully. Our house here in NL is 3.5 kWp, people I know in the US have more like 20-30 kWp.
vishnugupta 5mo ago
> $106,000 before incentives, What's the capacity though. Either way this seems extremely high unless we are talking in terms of like 100kw or something. For reference, I recently installed hybrid/net-metered system set up at my home in India; 7kw solar with a 20kWh battery for around $10K. The biggest cost is for the batteries though. The panels themselves have become extremely low price and the prices continue to fall. It's interesting to see Tesla's solar business getting disrupted by Chinese manufacturers after EV.
- decimalenough 5mo ago
  It's not just solar panels, it's a roof replacement and solar panels. In high COL areas, the roof alone would likely cost you $10k+ these days.
  - formerly_proven 5mo ago
    10k for a SFH roof seems extraordinarily cheap to me for any COL area. I would expect around 50k-60k for a 1000 sq ft roof (not US).
    - mschuster91 5mo ago
      > I would expect around 50k-60k for a 1000 sq ft roof (not US). That's about 90 m². Here in Germany [1], if it's just replacing tiles, you're looking at 10k, add 20k for adding heat insulation - and you can get 15-20% back with government assistance from that sum. The only way you reach 50k in costs here is if you have to fix structural issues (e.g. rotting wood due to water ingress, but if you take proper care of your roof you won't need to do that - expected life time for roofs is about 80 years for the tiles and much more to the tune of centuries for the wood framing. [1] https://www.obi.de/magazin/energiesparen/daemmung/dachdaemmung/dachsanierung https://www.obi.de/magazin/energiesparen/daemmung/dachdaemmu...
      - deleted 5mo ago
        [deleted]
dnnddidiej 5mo ago
Recently got 14kw solar, 30kwh battery, heat pump water heater for c. 20k usd. installed. Edit: installed for me by trades in that price.
- elsonrodriguez 5mo ago
  Self install?
RataNova 5mo ago
Yeah, and the problem is that the premium isn't small enough to hand-wave away as aesthetics
somenameforme 5mo ago
In both cases I'm somewhat curious why seemingly no middle-man 'free solar roof' companies have sprung up where they install it with some sort of arrangement where the panels are free, but they get 90% of the generated revenue until it's paid itself off and then some. So you get a small electricity discount for many years and then eventually a much larger one, and free panels on top. If they can work out the economics to the point that it's more viable than something like treasuries then I don't see the issue? Of course there's some potential market and other variability, but if this business model is sound then Lloyd's is there to insure it?
- gnopgnip 5mo ago
  Something like this exists with PPA solar leases, and with home batteries. But it’s usually a bad deal for the homeowner compared to a more conventional lease or purchase with a fixed rate. The incentives don’t match up, there is also the issue of the lease buyout if the home is sold.
pjc50 5mo ago
Meanwhile in the UK, the Future Homes standard mandates it on new build: https://solar4good.co.uk/blogs/solar-property-developers-uk-new-developments-2026/ https://solar4good.co.uk/blogs/solar-property-developers-uk-... > "requires on-site renewable electricity generation for new homes in England — solar PV covering around 40% of ground floor area where feasible" As well as an end to new gas boilers, replaced with a heat pump mandate. > The estimated build cost increase is around £4,350 per dwelling. FHS-compliant homes are projected to save homeowners around £830 per year on energy bills compared to a typical EPC C home That .. looks rather different to a $100k gold plated roof.
- zdragnar 5mo ago
  You're comparing apples to oranges, at least a bit. $60k for a roof plus solar is going to be for a larger US home compared to a UK home- probably in the 3000 sq ft range, unless it's a very steep roof with lots of dormers or corners. Also, the cost savings for the UK home are due to much higher energy prices- the cost savings would be much smaller in the US. With that said, Tesla's Solar Roof is definitely the gold plated unreasonably out of touch option.
  - womble2 5mo ago
    OTOH solar is a lot less useful in the UK than in the US. The southern tip of the UK is north of all the major Canadian cities, in the depths of winter we get about 6 hours of daylight with the sun barely reaching 20 degrees above the horizon. The winter is also where most electricity usage is too, doubly so when you want to replace gas heating with a heat pump. No AC and summer daylight past 10pm means that residential electricy usage in the summer, when solar does make sense, is very low.
    - zdragnar 5mo ago
      Meh, I've had people come out to give me a quote for rooftop solar and they told me not to bother. Between the latitude (upper Midwest) and tree coverage shading parts of the roof throughout the day, it wouldn't pay off in a reasonable time line. Mind you, that's with having AC, electric laundry dryer, a private well pump, septic heater and all sorts of other energy hogs trotting about the place throughout the year. I'm not exactly living an ascetic lifestyle myself. Maybe if I paid the UK's electricity rates it'd be different though.

ericpauley 5mo ago

Are these payback periods factoring in opportunity cost? If not the game is already lost. If so periods that long are so sensitive to alternate asset returns that they could easily be infinity.

Neywiny 5mo ago
Opportunity cost meaning investing with standard rule of thumb returns? I think usually it's just total cost at installation divided by the product of power generation and energy cost. So that's $ / (W x $/Wh), which should reduce down to just hours that can be trivially converted to years
- ejoso 5mo ago
  Cost of alternative investments not pursued as a result of deployed capital.
  - hello8402 5mo ago
    > Cost of alternative investments not pursued as a result of deployed capital. Once you’re achieving 30-50% annual returns over 20-30 year horizons (PE, HFT, invite-only HF) , you stop caring about cost of capital for anything less than US$1 million. But 10% VTI / VOO, sure, factor that 10% into your excel.
    - ejoso 5mo ago
      Bully for you
loeg 5mo ago
Usually, no.
freetime2 5mo ago
No - these numbers likely do not factor in opportunity cost. And yes, you can probably earn a better return elsewhere. But the reasons that I installed rooftop solar were: * Diversification. These days stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, and even precious metals are increasingly correlated [1]. Solar panels offer pretty consistent returns regardless of what is happening in the stock market. * Backup power. I live in an area that is prone to natural disasters. Having a backup power source gives me a bit of peace of mind. * Hedge against increasing energy prices. My solar panels have actually performed better than I expected due to electricity prices increasing faster than I expected. * Clean energy. When I turn on my A/C in the summer I take some enjoyment from the fact that it's powered by the panels on my roof and not burning fossil fuels. * Entertainment. I enjoy nerding out and learning about the tech, monitoring output, etc. A lot of people think solar panels are ugly but I actually like the way they look. Yes the S&P 500 would have returned signficantly more than my solar panels. But I already have a lot invested in the S&P 500, solar panels were fairly inexpensive and don't make up a significant portion of my overall investments, and the psychological benefits outweigh whatever opportunity cost I have incurred. There is also the option to finance them. You need to be careful with financing, as I think there are a lot of predatory offers out there. But if you are buying or building a house, for example, and can roll the cost of the panels into your mortgage, then that's going to reduce the up front cost and hence the opportunity cost. But yeah when you get into the $100K range for a Tesla solar roof, then I think that starts to be a pretty substantial amount for most people that can be better spent elsewhere. Not to mention the delays, customer service issues, etc that people have experienced with Tesla - which can easily offset any peace of mind benefits. [1] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/14/how-to-build-a-portfolio-when-bonds-fail-to-buffer-stocks https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/14/h...
- bruce511 5mo ago
  I'm in the same camp as you. I'll add that my panels are returning 16% on capital spent, and it's going up as electricity prices go up. So, yes, I could probably get a higher return if I invested that capital elsewhere, but, apart from the diversification, I get benefits beyond the raw financial return. Firstly, earlier this year, we had a cable coming into the house fail. By the time the electrician and city had done all they needed to do to sort it out, almost 4 days had passed. We would have been without power for that time. As it happens we ran completely on solar for that period - freezers stayed frozen, could run the laundry, etc. Some stuff was limited (no oven, no hot water) but the impact was minimal compared to what it might have been. Secondly, during the day at least, I'm not really fussed about electricity usage. If lights are on, or AC is on or whatever. So there's less "hey, that light is costing money" etc. So we end up using more electricity, but the marginal cost (during the day) is 0. My next car is electric (already on order) and that can charge at home as well (during the day, I work from home) and so that just increases the return (utilization of available power goes up.) From a financial point of view, for me, it's a no-brainer. Obviously ymmv - everyone's numbers are different. For me the payback is in the 5-6 year range (probably under 5 once the car comes online.)

kccqzy 5mo ago

In my opinion, the Tesla Solar Roof really appealed to people who wanted good looks. They probably already have their “forever” homes and are not thinking of moving at all. It is more about the emotional attachment to this part of your home than its functional aspects. You can buy a $100 dining table from IKEA or you can buy a $1,000 dining table from Pottery Barn or you can buy a custom $5,000 dining table made from a solid piece of wood. It's the same functionality but emotionally very different.

brikym 5mo ago
But we're talking about a utility here. If someone just wants to own fashionable things there are better ways to do that.
- akerl_ 5mo ago
  Not if the two things you want are "solar power for your home" and "for your roof to not be covered in obvious solar panels". I have a Tesla solar roof. I bought it knowing there were cheaper options for equivalent solar power because I liked the aesthetics.
  - brikym 5mo ago
    Does it actually make sense financially vs investing in something else?
    - DougN7 5mo ago
      No it doesn’t, but style never makes financial sense.
    - akerl_ 5mo ago
      Not really, no.
    - Den_VR 5mo ago
      The Bottega Veneta of roof tiles.

gtowey 5mo ago

It's even worse than that. They're making the comparison of a solar roof to a new standard roof plus solar panels, but most people absolutely do not replace their roof when they get panels so the cost difference is more like 106k vs 30k.

deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]
imtringued 5mo ago
There are companies that will install solar shingles into your roof and they only need to remove tiles in the places where the panels will be installed, so the Tesla Solar Roof is expensive even compared to an aesthetically pleasing roof.

sergiotapia 5mo ago

I would love some kind of solar, but when I know how cheap it is to install it in places like Africa AND use cutting edge chinese solar/battery tech, my enthusiasm to pay a USA premium makes me just close the tabs. It's too expensive in america for some reason.

freetime2 5mo ago
I agree it's frustrating. But shouldn't your decision be based on whether it makes financial sense for you, and not whether someone else in a completely different market with a completely different cost structure is paying a lower price than you?
dzhiurgis 5mo ago
You need to shop around. Problem is solar companies just hiring contractors with little value add. Spend some time looking for contractor yourself and you’ll easily save 30%.
davedx 5mo ago
IME a lot of the difference between solar for the US vs Europe for example, is that the energy usage in the US is way higher (often due to HVAC usage), so you just need much larger sized systems than in Europe if you want to cover your usage fully. Our house here in NL is 3.5 kWp, people I know in the US have more like 20-30 kWp.

vishnugupta 5mo ago

> $106,000 before incentives, What's the capacity though. Either way this seems extremely high unless we are talking in terms of like 100kw or something. For reference, I recently installed hybrid/net-metered system set up at my home in India; 7kw solar with a 20kWh battery for around $10K. The biggest cost is for the batteries though. The panels themselves have become extremely low price and the prices continue to fall. It's interesting to see Tesla's solar business getting disrupted by Chinese manufacturers after EV.

decimalenough 5mo ago
It's not just solar panels, it's a roof replacement and solar panels. In high COL areas, the roof alone would likely cost you $10k+ these days.
- formerly_proven 5mo ago
  10k for a SFH roof seems extraordinarily cheap to me for any COL area. I would expect around 50k-60k for a 1000 sq ft roof (not US).
  - mschuster91 5mo ago
    > I would expect around 50k-60k for a 1000 sq ft roof (not US). That's about 90 m². Here in Germany [1], if it's just replacing tiles, you're looking at 10k, add 20k for adding heat insulation - and you can get 15-20% back with government assistance from that sum. The only way you reach 50k in costs here is if you have to fix structural issues (e.g. rotting wood due to water ingress, but if you take proper care of your roof you won't need to do that - expected life time for roofs is about 80 years for the tiles and much more to the tune of centuries for the wood framing. [1] https://www.obi.de/magazin/energiesparen/daemmung/dachdaemmung/dachsanierung https://www.obi.de/magazin/energiesparen/daemmung/dachdaemmu...
    - deleted 5mo ago
      [deleted]

dnnddidiej 5mo ago

Recently got 14kw solar, 30kwh battery, heat pump water heater for c. 20k usd. installed. Edit: installed for me by trades in that price.

elsonrodriguez 5mo ago
Self install?

RataNova 5mo ago

Yeah, and the problem is that the premium isn't small enough to hand-wave away as aesthetics

somenameforme 5mo ago

In both cases I'm somewhat curious why seemingly no middle-man 'free solar roof' companies have sprung up where they install it with some sort of arrangement where the panels are free, but they get 90% of the generated revenue until it's paid itself off and then some. So you get a small electricity discount for many years and then eventually a much larger one, and free panels on top. If they can work out the economics to the point that it's more viable than something like treasuries then I don't see the issue? Of course there's some potential market and other variability, but if this business model is sound then Lloyd's is there to insure it?

gnopgnip 5mo ago
Something like this exists with PPA solar leases, and with home batteries. But it’s usually a bad deal for the homeowner compared to a more conventional lease or purchase with a fixed rate. The incentives don’t match up, there is also the issue of the lease buyout if the home is sold.

pjc50 5mo ago

Meanwhile in the UK, the Future Homes standard mandates it on new build: https://solar4good.co.uk/blogs/solar-property-developers-uk-new-developments-2026/ https://solar4good.co.uk/blogs/solar-property-developers-uk-... > "requires on-site renewable electricity generation for new homes in England — solar PV covering around 40% of ground floor area where feasible" As well as an end to new gas boilers, replaced with a heat pump mandate. > The estimated build cost increase is around £4,350 per dwelling. FHS-compliant homes are projected to save homeowners around £830 per year on energy bills compared to a typical EPC C home That .. looks rather different to a $100k gold plated roof.

zdragnar 5mo ago
You're comparing apples to oranges, at least a bit. $60k for a roof plus solar is going to be for a larger US home compared to a UK home- probably in the 3000 sq ft range, unless it's a very steep roof with lots of dormers or corners. Also, the cost savings for the UK home are due to much higher energy prices- the cost savings would be much smaller in the US. With that said, Tesla's Solar Roof is definitely the gold plated unreasonably out of touch option.
- womble2 5mo ago
  OTOH solar is a lot less useful in the UK than in the US. The southern tip of the UK is north of all the major Canadian cities, in the depths of winter we get about 6 hours of daylight with the sun barely reaching 20 degrees above the horizon. The winter is also where most electricity usage is too, doubly so when you want to replace gas heating with a heat pump. No AC and summer daylight past 10pm means that residential electricy usage in the summer, when solar does make sense, is very low.
  - zdragnar 5mo ago
    Meh, I've had people come out to give me a quote for rooftop solar and they told me not to bother. Between the latitude (upper Midwest) and tree coverage shading parts of the roof throughout the day, it wouldn't pay off in a reasonable time line. Mind you, that's with having AC, electric laundry dryer, a private well pump, septic heater and all sorts of other energy hogs trotting about the place throughout the year. I'm not exactly living an ascetic lifestyle myself. Maybe if I paid the UK's electricity rates it'd be different though.