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> growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat It's not the drought per se, it's input costs. Farmers

> growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat It's not the drought per se, it's input costs. Farmers are favouring crops that need less nitrogen and potassium. Commodities have responded accordingly.

embedding-shape 5mo ago
> growers expanded plantings of soybeans A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sales-farmers.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa...), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?
- Forgeties79 5mo ago
  China has a tendency to shift to self-reliance or importing from more pliable neighborswhenever they execute policies like that. So even if they’re buying again, I highly doubt it is at the same rate it once was
- cogman10 5mo ago
  I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans. China stopped because it was particularly negatively targeted by US tariff policy. But make no mistake, it has caused problems for farmers. The report from my small hometown farmers is that everything, except for beef, is down right now while the prices of inputs like fertilizer are high. Some of the farmers in my hometown have already sold their land to megacorp farmers in response because they simply can't survive.
  - fullstop 5mo ago
    It wouldn't surprise me, at all, if the soybeans rotted away with no consumers.
    - cogman10 5mo ago
      One of the wild things about farming is that crop storage works a lot better than what you can do at home. They have it down to an exact science, the temperature, humidity, etc of the crop in question and how long it can be stored for. On reddit, some farmers have cited 1 to 1 and 1/2 years of storage. [1] I suspect that a large portion of these soybeans will be stored with the hope that the market gets better in the future (I've never farmed soybeans. We did wheat and hay). Potatoes and apples are the same way. For Potatoes, they'll measure for hotspots throughout the year to make sure there's not rotting going on in the core, but assuming that doesn't happen, they can be stored for a very long time in giant potato piles. Hay is weird. Fermentation is actually a desirable thing because it releases nutrients (and the cows LOVE it). It makes storage super easy. I've had multi-year old hay bales that we've fed to cows. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/farming/comments/113t3nx/how_long_can_soybeans_be_stored_with_less_than_13/ https://www.reddit.com/r/farming/comments/113t3nx/how_long_c...
  - embedding-shape 5mo ago
    > I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans But who? Compared to 2024, 2025 had almost half soybean exports it seems (https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/soybeans https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/soybeans), I'm guessing most of the difference was China basically stopped buying soybeans. But it's a huge difference, yet production seems to be ramping up? I don't understand why they'd do that when the exports are going down?
    - kipchak 5mo ago
      There's a risk of food prices increasing across the board and shortages in poorer countries if fertilizer exports stay restricted, or in other words increased demand for soybeans in the later half of 2026.
    - cogman10 5mo ago
      I don't think it's ramping up [1]. Production is pretty static. And the chart you linked appears that exports for non-china countries is basically static. Were I to guess what's going on, but we'll see when the 2026 data comes in, is that soy farmers are likely storing a good portion of their bean harvest. Some will still have contracts that keep them farming. I suspect that many have switched over to other crops. [1] https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/production/2222000 https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/production/2222000
      - bluGill 5mo ago
        > I suspect that many have switched over to other crops. On the margins. However most farmers consider their soil health and long term plans. All good farmers (especially the mega corps) will intentionally plant most crops not based on what they expect out of the market next year, but what their soil needs. Most fields will not produce well if you don't consider what was grown on it last year and in turn what you want to produce next year. A few fields (millions of acres worth, but still only a few) there are options and those will adjust, but for the vast majority you have to follow a long term plan or your soil will fail and bankrupt you long term. Even the fields that do have options, it is just this year, and next they will have to return to a long term plan with no option. That where I live you have go [corn, corn, soybeans] or [corn, soybeans, corn], but [corn, corn, corn] is not an option. (I'm not aware of anyone doing two years of soybeans but maybe it happens)
- bluGill 5mo ago
  When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US. The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.
  - maerF0x0 5mo ago
    Soybeans are a pretty stellar food for protein per calorie. And to stop misinformation in its tracks: > A March 2021 meta-analysis published in Reproductive Toxicology concluded that neither soy protein nor isoflavone intake significantly affects reproductive hormone levels in men. Analyzing data from 41 studies and 1,753 participants, the researchers found no statistically significant effects on testosterone or estrogen regardless of intake dose or duration. so Gemini says, link - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33383165/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33383165/
    - jimbob45 5mo ago
      Downvoted even with a reputable link lol. It’s obviously true though. If soybeans could even semi-reliably affect hormone levels in either direction, trannies would be all over them.
  - panflute 5mo ago
    I don't think international trade is so stable that any shift would imply equal and opposite shifts in trade. For example it looks like Brazil's production is up 5% while China's overall usage may be down 6%.
    - nonethewiser 5mo ago
      Do you think China's new demand on Brazil could be handled by Brazil with previously idle capacity?
      - panflute 5mo ago
nkh 5mo ago
They all need diesel to run the equipment as well, which is also approaching all time highs.

embedding-shape 5mo ago

> growers expanded plantings of soybeans A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sales-farmers.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa...), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?

Forgeties79 5mo ago
China has a tendency to shift to self-reliance or importing from more pliable neighborswhenever they execute policies like that. So even if they’re buying again, I highly doubt it is at the same rate it once was
cogman10 5mo ago
I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans. China stopped because it was particularly negatively targeted by US tariff policy. But make no mistake, it has caused problems for farmers. The report from my small hometown farmers is that everything, except for beef, is down right now while the prices of inputs like fertilizer are high. Some of the farmers in my hometown have already sold their land to megacorp farmers in response because they simply can't survive.
- fullstop 5mo ago
  It wouldn't surprise me, at all, if the soybeans rotted away with no consumers.
  - cogman10 5mo ago
    One of the wild things about farming is that crop storage works a lot better than what you can do at home. They have it down to an exact science, the temperature, humidity, etc of the crop in question and how long it can be stored for. On reddit, some farmers have cited 1 to 1 and 1/2 years of storage. [1] I suspect that a large portion of these soybeans will be stored with the hope that the market gets better in the future (I've never farmed soybeans. We did wheat and hay). Potatoes and apples are the same way. For Potatoes, they'll measure for hotspots throughout the year to make sure there's not rotting going on in the core, but assuming that doesn't happen, they can be stored for a very long time in giant potato piles. Hay is weird. Fermentation is actually a desirable thing because it releases nutrients (and the cows LOVE it). It makes storage super easy. I've had multi-year old hay bales that we've fed to cows. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/farming/comments/113t3nx/how_long_can_soybeans_be_stored_with_less_than_13/ https://www.reddit.com/r/farming/comments/113t3nx/how_long_c...
- embedding-shape 5mo ago
  > I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans But who? Compared to 2024, 2025 had almost half soybean exports it seems (https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/soybeans https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/soybeans), I'm guessing most of the difference was China basically stopped buying soybeans. But it's a huge difference, yet production seems to be ramping up? I don't understand why they'd do that when the exports are going down?
  - kipchak 5mo ago
    There's a risk of food prices increasing across the board and shortages in poorer countries if fertilizer exports stay restricted, or in other words increased demand for soybeans in the later half of 2026.
  - cogman10 5mo ago
    I don't think it's ramping up [1]. Production is pretty static. And the chart you linked appears that exports for non-china countries is basically static. Were I to guess what's going on, but we'll see when the 2026 data comes in, is that soy farmers are likely storing a good portion of their bean harvest. Some will still have contracts that keep them farming. I suspect that many have switched over to other crops. [1] https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/production/2222000 https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/production/2222000
    - bluGill 5mo ago
      > I suspect that many have switched over to other crops. On the margins. However most farmers consider their soil health and long term plans. All good farmers (especially the mega corps) will intentionally plant most crops not based on what they expect out of the market next year, but what their soil needs. Most fields will not produce well if you don't consider what was grown on it last year and in turn what you want to produce next year. A few fields (millions of acres worth, but still only a few) there are options and those will adjust, but for the vast majority you have to follow a long term plan or your soil will fail and bankrupt you long term. Even the fields that do have options, it is just this year, and next they will have to return to a long term plan with no option. That where I live you have go [corn, corn, soybeans] or [corn, soybeans, corn], but [corn, corn, corn] is not an option. (I'm not aware of anyone doing two years of soybeans but maybe it happens)
bluGill 5mo ago
When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US. The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.
- maerF0x0 5mo ago
  Soybeans are a pretty stellar food for protein per calorie. And to stop misinformation in its tracks: > A March 2021 meta-analysis published in Reproductive Toxicology concluded that neither soy protein nor isoflavone intake significantly affects reproductive hormone levels in men. Analyzing data from 41 studies and 1,753 participants, the researchers found no statistically significant effects on testosterone or estrogen regardless of intake dose or duration. so Gemini says, link - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33383165/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33383165/
  - jimbob45 5mo ago
    Downvoted even with a reputable link lol. It’s obviously true though. If soybeans could even semi-reliably affect hormone levels in either direction, trannies would be all over them.
- panflute 5mo ago
  I don't think international trade is so stable that any shift would imply equal and opposite shifts in trade. For example it looks like Brazil's production is up 5% while China's overall usage may be down 6%.
  - nonethewiser 5mo ago
    Do you think China's new demand on Brazil could be handled by Brazil with previously idle capacity?
    - panflute 5mo ago

nkh 5mo ago

They all need diesel to run the equipment as well, which is also approaching all time highs.