4 ms·

> To some degree yes, in practice, not so much. We used to say that (not long ago, even) about the code-writing part. Why do we believe that LLMs are going to

> To some degree yes, in practice, not so much. We used to say that (not long ago, even) about the code-writing part. Why do we believe that LLMs are going to stop there? Why do we think they won't soon be able to talk to people, listen, and determine what they need? I think it's mostly a cope. We have robots walking just fine now, by the way.

terseus 6mo ago
> Why do we believe that LLMs are going to stop there? Why do you believe they wont? I think it's reasonable to assume that we will hit a ceiling that current models will not be able to break. > We have robots walking just fine now, by the way. Walking and reasoning are unrelated abilities.
- SoftTalker 6mo ago
  Walking was given as an example of "hard to program a robot to do it" by GP. Well, now we have robots that can walk. What evidence is there that LLMs have hit a ceiling at being able to do things like talk to users or stakeholders to elicit requirements? Using LLMs to help with design and architecture decisions is already a pretty common example that people give.
bborud 6mo ago
We never noticed how easy the code writing part had already become because it happened slowly. Through mechanical means, through the ability to re-use code, and through code generation. Heck, even long before LLMs about 10% to 30% of my code was already automatically generated. By tooling, by IDLs and by my editor just being able to infer what my most likely input would be. > We have robots walking just fine now, by the way. I don't think you got the point I was trying to make.
- SoftTalker 6mo ago
  True, but I guess I see a distinction between scaffolded/templated boilerplate or autocomplete and actual application logic. People have generated boilerplate from templates for ages, as you say. RoR maybe a pretty good example, but there wasn't even early-days AI involved in doing that.
sarchertech 6mo ago
If they can do those things they can effectively replace any white collar job. That’s about 45% of the workforce. Societies tend to collapse around 25-30% unemployment. Imagine 45% of higher than average paying jobs gone. If that happens we’ll either figure out a new economic system, or society will collapse. Also saying robots are walking just fine is misleading for any definition of just fine that is anywhere near as good as a human.
- ryandrake 6mo ago
  Look at how the billionaires are talking about AI: Their clear, unambiguous goal is basically to replace all white collar "knowledge" jobs. And there's currently nothing regulatory that's stopping them--they just need to wait for the state of the art to improve. Once AI is "good enough" if it ever is, they won't even think twice about 45% unemployment. What are we unemployed workers going to do about it? There's no effective labor organization left. Workers have basically no political power or seat at the table. We're not going to get violent--the police/military are already owned by the billionaire class. We're just going to eventually become economically irrelevant and die off.
  - monknomo 6mo ago
    45% of folks sitting on their hands are going to have the free time to talk, and this group of people are skilled at organization. Are you planning on throwing your hands up and passively accepting whatever comes your way?
    - rootusrootus 6mo ago
      And at least in the US they have >45% of all the small arms weaponry. There is no bunker strong enough nor private army big enough if 100M people come for you.
      - ryandrake 6mo ago
        They're probably be betting that the technology they will need to defend their bunkers, think autonomous kill-bots or whatever, will emerge before people start to riot. Or they're planning to build an Elysium-like colony in the ocean or space, to keep the billionaire class far from danger.
phkahler 6mo ago
>> We used to say that (not long ago, even) about the code-writing part. Why do we believe that LLMs are going to stop there? Why do we think they won't soon be able to talk to people, listen, and determine what they need? Because they are currently "generative AI" meaning... autocomplete. They generate stuff but fall down at thinking and problem solving. There is talk of "reasoning models" but I think that's just clever meta-programming with LLMs. I can't say AI won't take that next step, but I think it will take another breakthrough on the order of transformers or attention. Companies are currently too busy exploiting the local maxima of LLMs.
- rootusrootus 6mo ago
  > Companies are currently too busy exploiting the local maxima of LLMs I get the feeling we can already spot the next AI Winter. Which is okay, we need a breather, and the current technology is useful enough on its own.

terseus 6mo ago

> Why do we believe that LLMs are going to stop there? Why do you believe they wont? I think it's reasonable to assume that we will hit a ceiling that current models will not be able to break. > We have robots walking just fine now, by the way. Walking and reasoning are unrelated abilities.

SoftTalker 6mo ago
Walking was given as an example of "hard to program a robot to do it" by GP. Well, now we have robots that can walk. What evidence is there that LLMs have hit a ceiling at being able to do things like talk to users or stakeholders to elicit requirements? Using LLMs to help with design and architecture decisions is already a pretty common example that people give.

bborud 6mo ago

We never noticed how easy the code writing part had already become because it happened slowly. Through mechanical means, through the ability to re-use code, and through code generation. Heck, even long before LLMs about 10% to 30% of my code was already automatically generated. By tooling, by IDLs and by my editor just being able to infer what my most likely input would be. > We have robots walking just fine now, by the way. I don't think you got the point I was trying to make.

SoftTalker 6mo ago
True, but I guess I see a distinction between scaffolded/templated boilerplate or autocomplete and actual application logic. People have generated boilerplate from templates for ages, as you say. RoR maybe a pretty good example, but there wasn't even early-days AI involved in doing that.

sarchertech 6mo ago

If they can do those things they can effectively replace any white collar job. That’s about 45% of the workforce. Societies tend to collapse around 25-30% unemployment. Imagine 45% of higher than average paying jobs gone. If that happens we’ll either figure out a new economic system, or society will collapse. Also saying robots are walking just fine is misleading for any definition of just fine that is anywhere near as good as a human.

ryandrake 6mo ago
Look at how the billionaires are talking about AI: Their clear, unambiguous goal is basically to replace all white collar "knowledge" jobs. And there's currently nothing regulatory that's stopping them--they just need to wait for the state of the art to improve. Once AI is "good enough" if it ever is, they won't even think twice about 45% unemployment. What are we unemployed workers going to do about it? There's no effective labor organization left. Workers have basically no political power or seat at the table. We're not going to get violent--the police/military are already owned by the billionaire class. We're just going to eventually become economically irrelevant and die off.
- monknomo 6mo ago
  45% of folks sitting on their hands are going to have the free time to talk, and this group of people are skilled at organization. Are you planning on throwing your hands up and passively accepting whatever comes your way?
  - rootusrootus 6mo ago
    And at least in the US they have >45% of all the small arms weaponry. There is no bunker strong enough nor private army big enough if 100M people come for you.
    - ryandrake 6mo ago
      They're probably be betting that the technology they will need to defend their bunkers, think autonomous kill-bots or whatever, will emerge before people start to riot. Or they're planning to build an Elysium-like colony in the ocean or space, to keep the billionaire class far from danger.

phkahler 6mo ago

>> We used to say that (not long ago, even) about the code-writing part. Why do we believe that LLMs are going to stop there? Why do we think they won't soon be able to talk to people, listen, and determine what they need? Because they are currently "generative AI" meaning... autocomplete. They generate stuff but fall down at thinking and problem solving. There is talk of "reasoning models" but I think that's just clever meta-programming with LLMs. I can't say AI won't take that next step, but I think it will take another breakthrough on the order of transformers or attention. Companies are currently too busy exploiting the local maxima of LLMs.

rootusrootus 6mo ago
> Companies are currently too busy exploiting the local maxima of LLMs I get the feeling we can already spot the next AI Winter. Which is okay, we need a breather, and the current technology is useful enough on its own.