4 ms·

I'm also pretty sure in the past industrial transitions, many of the people who lost their jobs at the start of the change never found better ones. It took a ge

I'm also pretty sure in the past industrial transitions, many of the people who lost their jobs at the start of the change never found better ones. It took a generation or so for new opportunities to really be found and fine tuned and you're competing for those new roles with younger people anyway. If ai does take a lot of white collar work, is it a lot of comfort that maybe jobs in a very different sector will be better in 20 years?

rayiner 6mo ago
Did the younger people find better jobs? You used to have all these jobs for people who were maybe a bit smarter than average with good judgment. In the 1990s, the local community college used to advertise associates degrees for paralegals. That's a job that doesn't exist in the same way anymore thanks to computers. Now it's become an internship for kids with top credentials before they go to law school. Which is fine for them, but what about everyone else? It seems to me like all of these people are flocking now to healthcare fields. That seems totally unsustainable.
- joe_mamba 6mo ago
  >It seems to me like all of these people are flocking now to healthcare fields. That seems totally unsustainable. Why? There will never be a shortage of sick/dying people. So medical staff, and also undertakers, aren't going anywhere.
  - rayiner 6mo ago
    Because most healthcare spending comes from tax dollars.
    - jhrmnn 6mo ago
      Is this a different route to the universal basic income scenario?
  - deflator 6mo ago
    My understanding is that healthcare keeps growing because the large Boomer generation is aging. When they have passed though, then we should see a corresponding slide in healthcare growth
marcosdumay 6mo ago
Not in all past industrial transitions. But yes, the argument has been wrong often enough that the people still repeating it as a rule should be mocked and ashamed.

rayiner 6mo ago

Did the younger people find better jobs? You used to have all these jobs for people who were maybe a bit smarter than average with good judgment. In the 1990s, the local community college used to advertise associates degrees for paralegals. That's a job that doesn't exist in the same way anymore thanks to computers. Now it's become an internship for kids with top credentials before they go to law school. Which is fine for them, but what about everyone else? It seems to me like all of these people are flocking now to healthcare fields. That seems totally unsustainable.

joe_mamba 6mo ago
>It seems to me like all of these people are flocking now to healthcare fields. That seems totally unsustainable. Why? There will never be a shortage of sick/dying people. So medical staff, and also undertakers, aren't going anywhere.
- rayiner 6mo ago
  Because most healthcare spending comes from tax dollars.
  - jhrmnn 6mo ago
    Is this a different route to the universal basic income scenario?
- deflator 6mo ago
  My understanding is that healthcare keeps growing because the large Boomer generation is aging. When they have passed though, then we should see a corresponding slide in healthcare growth

marcosdumay 6mo ago

Not in all past industrial transitions. But yes, the argument has been wrong often enough that the people still repeating it as a rule should be mocked and ashamed.