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Most people don't know, that "prediction markets" are acutally based on an idea by DARPA in 2002, after 9/11/2001.
by Beijinger 5mo ago
Most people don't know, that "prediction markets" are acutally based on an idea by DARPA in 2002, after 9/11/2001.
- jonahx 5mo agoPrediction markets, by any reasonable definition, existed long before 2002.
- ddp26 5mo agoYeah. People have put together a Prediction Market Database [1] (in a Google sheet), I think it's pretty well sourced and shows a good number of both real money and play money prediction markets from before 2002. DARPA did have a big role though, too. [1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGjnJPxdnBKwag3Q9Uy_LdVAARaSHrI5CWiYKH7dV9s/edit?gid=1671608647#gid=1671608647 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGjnJPxdnBKwag3Q9Uy_...
- nullc 5mo ago> Most people don't know, that "prediction markets" are acutally based on an idea by DARPA in 2002, after 9/11/2001. Did they then use a time machine to go back to the mid-90's to pass the idea to Jim Bell so he could take the fall for some of the less attractive possible outcomes?