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Elon Musk: With Jobs Gone, Google Will Win Mobile (And Look Out For Hyperloop)

• lazyjones 14y ago
  > Silva opened by asking how rare it was these days to see companies created which were worth more than $50bn, and yet Musk himself had helped to create at least four so far. Really? Can anyone provide me with a list of these companies?
  • metastew 14y ago
    Off the top of my head, he might be referring to PayPal, SolarCity, SpaceX, and Tesla Motors.
  • k-mcgrady 14y ago
    I presume they're talking about: PayPal, Tesla Motors, SolarCity, and Space X.
    • snuze 14y ago
      To be fair, none of those are worth close to $50B.
      • enraged_camel 14y ago
        Yet. ;-)
  • deleted 14y ago
    [deleted]
  • habosa 14y ago
    I was wondering the same thing. Maybe she means 5B? Although most valuations of SpaceX are not that high (definitely will be soon) and I'm not sure about Solar City...
• bravoyankee 14y ago
  People can't sell Apple stocks fast enough IMO. Tim Cook seems to have no vision for the future, and "where there is no vision, the people perish."
  • chucknelson 14y ago
    We have no idea what is in the pipeline at Apple, nor what their "vision" is. Steve Jobs and Apple never came out and announced that the iPhone was in development and that it would revolutionize the tech industry - it just did in 2007. Let's wait a few years before we decide if Tim Cook is just riding the wave of prior success.
    • bravoyankee 14y ago
      In a few years the market will have already decided. The signs are out there. The cop-out design of the iPhone 5, the "blue sky" initiative started with the employees -they are scrambling for new ideas. Steve Jobs was the soul of Apple. His fire is gone. He took it with him.
      • jpxxx 14y ago
        "Cop out?" Do elaborate.
      • Steko 14y ago
        I look forward to hearing about the fortune you made shorting AAPL in 3 years.
      • randomdata 14y ago
        Your thoughts may prove to come true, but R&D is a multi-year undertaking, not something you scramble on at the last hour. The iPad was in development since 2002! Jobs has only been gone for a year. His influence should remain for at least the next five years, and only after that point can we really say if Apple is out of ideas or not.
      • taligent 14y ago
        I always laugh at clueless people who keep talking about current devices like iPad Mini or iPhone 5 as a sign that Apple is dying without Steve Jobs. Especially when Steve Jobs was personally involved in all of these decisions.
• stcredzero 14y ago
  > Lastly he revealed he was working on something he calls the “Hyperloop” which will be a “cross between a rail-gun and a Concorde.” Sounds a lot like the Lofstrom Loop, repurposed for Earthside transport. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop
  • JulianMorrison 14y ago
    And I was thinking "maglev in tunnels along great circles" because anything that flies can crash.
  • fudged71 14y ago
    >The mass budget for the track/ribbon system per meter is as follows: Temporary erection sheath 700 g/m [...] Ah, yes, interesting. via http://launchloop.com/LaunchLoop?action=AttachFile&do=get&target=launchloop.pdf http://launchloop.com/LaunchLoop?action=AttachFile&do=ge...
  • fudged71 14y ago
    If this really is the concept that Musk is working on, it would likely launch a vehicle into space to reach their earthly destination. This matches his idea that it would be "immune to weather" and also not a tube. So if it works, it would be great both for space tourism AND high-speed travel around the world. Really ties together his transportation and space ventures :)
    • adventured 14y ago
      The hyperloop is not a space based system. The little that Musk has said about it, indicates that. For example, he said it would be a vast improvement over the current rail system planned for California, and could plausibly be powered by solar. Nobody is going to use space travel to go between LA and San Francisco.
      • fudged71 14y ago
        Wow... I have no idea then -_-
• WiseWeasel 14y ago
  Not to refute his point on Apple post-Jobs, but Samsung is the only company in the Android ecosystem making any money, so it's not clear that Google is winning anything.
  • w1ntermute 14y ago
    Let me help you understand. Google is in the advertising business. They make money every time someone uses their services. When someone like Apple is in charge of mobile hardware and software, they can easily push Google out of the picture by setting the default search engine to Bing (which they thankfully haven't done) or changing the default mapping solution to their own (which they unfortunately have). Android is a way for Google to ensure that, as long as they provide the best search and mapping solutions, their services will dominate on mobile devices.
    • WiseWeasel 14y ago
      Amazon is shipping Android devices without Google services, and little stops Samsung from doing the same, should they ever decide that they can make more money that way.
      • w1ntermute 14y ago
        Once again, you're missing the point. Android isn't about making sure Google has a stranglehold on mobile devices, it's about leveling the playing field. Sure, Amazon can release a device with Bing as the default search engine, but Samsung can release a device with Google as the default search engine. And as long as Google is better than Bing (which it is right now), people will prefer the Samsung device over the Amazon one, at least in terms of searching the web. And if Microsoft pays off Samsung to set the default search engine to Bing on their devices too, someone else can come in and make yet another tablet that uses Google, since their mobile OS development costs will have been nullified by Android being free software.
        • sek 14y ago
• tolos 14y ago
  hrrm, I'm skeptical of claims made by executives that don't work in that industry, although here he's probably right. reads article Wait, this is about some UK tech meetup where a reporter asks Musk some questions. And the quote is: > Finally, I asked Musk who he thought would come out on top, out of Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook? > "It’s the grudge match," he said. "It’s good for consumers that there is this battle. I think probably Google will win on the phone because Jobs is out of the picture..." "Win on the phone?" What does that even mean?
  • chubot 14y ago
    Computer industries and platforms naturally tend toward monopolies. You need the virtuous the developer <-> user loop for a platform to survive. Apple said that without its App Store and developers people may stop buying iPhones. So "winning on the phone" means "getting the monopoly". The situation where both platforms have 50% of the market isn't really stable in the computer industry.
    • Steko 14y ago
      "Computer industries and platforms naturally tend toward monopolies." The last 20 years of console platform wars have proven this to be very false in a market not driven by corporate purchasing.
      • dataangel 14y ago
        You are correct, but mostly because console lock in simple doesn't matter as much. New console doesn't play your old games? Your old games probably suck more than the new ones anyway. New office suite can't open your customer spreadsheet? You're fucked.
        • hackinthebochs 14y ago
          Also consider that consoles have been largely unprofitable for Microsoft until recently. The console wars were a proxy for the set-top future that these companies were predicting. If consoles had to be profitable in their own right, Sony would have won a long time ago. Nintendo has been a niche for a few generations now so they don't really count (though I'm not sure how you'd classify the Wii here).
• hkmurakami 14y ago
  >Musk said it was important that societies create an environment where it’s “important it’s seen as a socially desirable thing to be an entrepreneur.” I think this is something whose importance is hard to fathom when living in hot startup ecosystems. When I was living in Japan, I was shocked at how people saw entrepreneurship in an undesirable light. In fact, new graduate polls showed that the most desirable type of profession was a public sector worker, followed by megacorp employee, then SME employee. Entrepreneur was literally at the bottom of the ladder [1]. This is in sharp contrast to the States, where polls show that people look up to and want to become entrepreneurs (the "start ups are cool" mentality) and see public sector workers as the most undesirable type of employment [2]. It's hard to live a life that isn't widely socially accepted, and having a society that looks favorably upon entrepreneurship or sole proprietorships is hugely important for giving people the peace of mind and confidence to embark on their individual paths [3]. Say what you will about the current proliferation of startups, but anything that promotes the long term social acceptability of starting a company is a net positive in the long run for making it easier for people to take the plunge themselves in the future. Our environment skews our perspective, and our perspective determines what we think is possible. We tend to believe in the triumph of the individual spirit and determination over mental hurdles, but it's a rare specimen that has the both the hard skills to create something great and the mental power to actually convince themselves to do so against conventional wisdom. Don't you that that it'd be desirable to reduce the mental hurdles so that those with different mental predispositions can roam freely? [1] I think doctor/lawyer/accountant were omitted because there are very few who enter these professions each year and is statistically somewhat irrelevant. [2] This isn't to say that working in the public sector is actually a bad gig or not useful, but public perception does matter in many ways in attracting talent. [3] In fact, patio11's lifestyle is generally derided in Japan, even though us HN'ers look up to the example he sets both in terms of skills and lifestyle. I have friends who work in the same city that patio11 used to (and perhaps even in the same industry...) who cannot get themselves to leave their megacorp jobs even though they have mid-5-figure income streams from their side gigs that they could obviously grow if they resigned from their day jobs and committed themselves to it. Their reasoning? They fear that they would no longer be accepted by society without said megacorp job. You need supreme confidence in your self worth to live without the "social proof" of an establishment on your shoulder in this culture, and it's a disservice to the world that great talent remains locked up because of this.
• davecyen 14y ago
  Elon Musk is an inspiration - he looks at big, real world problems and solves for them instead of spinning his wheels on the next shiny app. Especially appreciate his views on too many people going into finance or law rather than science and engineering. Poor editing in this article, if anyone finds a video of the original interview please post - tried to search for it but no luck.
• donflamenco 14y ago
  Here's an idea on how Apple can "win." The phone market is quickly turning into a mature business like the PC is today. Essentially all of the major innovation on the hardware side is done and the software side will be where people choose their phone/tablet. IOS has the best apps, period. Apple needs this to always be the case. Just like people buy Windows because of its apps (games, etc.) Developers make more money on the IOS platform (by far) than any other. Apple needs this to always be the case. I submit that Apple needs to drop the commission rate for apps sales from 30% to some value approaching zero. This will starve Android/Win8/BB of developer mind share. Developers will write great apps, make more money and users will pick the IOS platform because it has the apps (games) they want.
  • manuelflara 14y ago
    The thing is, having a 0% commission would definitely make developers happier and maybe make some more consider iOS as a first platform (although most do already). But that won't keep them from releasing their apps on other platforms after, to make extra revenue. Which in a lot of cases is what happens now, with Apple taking a 30% cut.
  • sek 14y ago
    You simply can't ignore Android, the biggest mobile OS and its doesn't get starved if iOS developers earn 30% more. I think about a bold move like buying Verizon or so. But in my opinion Apple is losing by simple being Apple. They can't keep up with the speed of Google. They spent their money left and right and Apple is sitting on it's cash. Why? They even paid out a dividend, that was the sign that they have no big plan. What was one of the first actions of Tim Cook.
    • freehunter 14y ago
      Buying Verizon would be hard to get past the government. See how difficult it was for AT&T to buy Alltel (they had to give a not-insignificant part of it to Verizon to play fair). Buying T-Mobile, on the other hand...
      • 14y ago
• maak 14y ago
  So from the recap of quite an interesting interview, TC went with the apple vs google headline? That was hardly the most interesting aspect of the article.
• ALee 14y ago
  I wonder if YC would ever be able to fund a Hyperloop? What would that look like?
• simonh 14y ago
  What does winning in mobile look like? Apple isn't interested in low price low margin devices. They sell premium high margin products. If apples market share were to freeze exactly as it is now with the same margins forever raking in tens of billions of dollars a year in pure profit, they'd be happy. Of course they'd be even happier with even more, but android outselling them 2:1 isnt a problem as long as Apples margins are greate by 20:1.
  • nas 14y ago
    I believe the common theory is that there are strong network effects in the mobile OS market. iOS is still an attractive platform for app developers but if the Apple share of the smartphone market keeps shrinking, developers will focus on Android instead.
    • Tloewald 14y ago
      "Keeps shrinking"? Apple's share of the global smartphone market is increasing (module minor seasonal variations and product launch effects) and smartphones are becoming the phone market. Android is replacing RIM and Nokia faster than Apple is. I'm not saying Elon Musk isn't right (I think a free phone OS is likely to win in the long term, since most people will buy on price over quality and eventually quality will improve or network effects will overwhelm quality considerations, just as Windows eventually destroyed Mac OS and became better in all ways thanks to ... Oh wait.) http://www.asymco.com/2012/11/14/google-vs-samsung/ http://www.asymco.com/2012/11/14/google-vs-samsung/
• TamDenholm 14y ago
  To me the hyperloop in my head would be a maglev train within a vacuum chamber, unless Musk has some kind of new tech in development in his research lab somewhere (not implausible if you ask me), but if i was going to build such a thing i'd probably have to do a working prototype first and it seems the easiest way to do that would be to use an existing underground train system, perhaps a derelict one. Then it would be much easier to create new infrastructure after its been proven to work.
• Tloewald 14y ago
  All he says is "probably". Misleading title.
• phaus 14y ago
  Wasn't Google on its way to winning mobile even when Jobs was around? I know that Apple makes far more money on hardware, but Google is an advertising company. As a company that makes most of its profits from advertising, isn't the largest share of the market enough for them to "win"? Also, isn't it possible that Apple could continue making boatloads of money off hardware even if Android builds off of its smartphone success and becomes the most popular tablet OS? (Which I think is inevitable unless Windows 8 devices get better) Wouldn't this scenario mean that both companies are winners?
• regehr 14y ago
  "But the airport officials were scared. They didn't know whether the destruction of the launch loop was an isolated incident of terrorist sabotage, or maybe the beginnings of a revolution-no one seemed to think, ever, that it might have been just a simple accident. It was scary, all right. There's a hell of a lot of kinetic energy stored in a Lofstrom loop, over twenty kilometers of iron ribbon, weighing about five thousand tons, moving at twelve kilometers a second. Out of curiosity I asked Albert later and he reported that it took 3.6 x lO^8 Joules to pump it up. And when one collapses, all those Joules come out at once, one way or another." From Heechee Rendezvous: http://www.amazon.com/Heechee-Rendezvous-Frederik-Pohl/dp/0345300556/ http://www.amazon.com/Heechee-Rendezvous-Frederik-Pohl/dp/03...
• GengYang 14y ago
  Was doing some research on Elon. Apparently he's quite the playboy too. Dumped his older wife for a pretty young actress whom he recently dumped again. Guess money really can buy a sequence of love affairs
  • jpxxx 14y ago
    Oh, now. Doing that doesn't take money at all.
• deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
• alinspired 14y ago
  Hyperloop - dream on: land-accelerated vehicle (a rocket-like) that is "slingshot" to the destination over the air. Acceleration even above Mach can be achieved on a maglev circular track gradually with ability to "switch" track and shoot the vehicle in the air. Land it to a maglev(!) landing pad in the form of a funnel or simpler - with a parachute-like system.
• fab13n 14y ago
  Musk has replaced Jobs in the public mind as the Ultimate Genius Entrepreneur. And he's going to ruthlessly use it to inspire people up to Mars. Actually, the Musk/Jobs comparison makes me think of the Famous Jobs/Sculley quote ("Do you want to sell sugared water for the rest of your life? Or do you want to come with me and change the world?"), with Jobs in the lesser role this time.
• wavesounds 14y ago
  One word: Plastics. He's said this Hyperloop is something that can't crash. If you have something that can't crash you can build it out of plastic which would be much lighter (more efficient/faster/easier to levitate) and cheaper then current high speed rail. I think is a mag-lev plastic highly aerodynamic train with lots of rail lines so that the cars cant collide.