4 ms·

It’s 100% to prevent citizens from becoming organized. The regime is most fearful of this.

recroad 5mo ago
[flagged]
bigyabai 5mo ago
There's multiple motives, not just counter-organization. A media blackout prevents OSINT damage analysis, much like how the IDF and CENTCOM both censor reporting of attacks on their in-theater installations.
- Pay08 5mo ago
  They could easily just censor that, especially since a dictatorship has far more control over the media compared to democracies.
  - bigyabai 5mo ago
    The OSINT is a bigger threat than the state media in Iran, hence the internet blackout.
    - Pay08 5mo ago
      No, the internet blackout is so their populace doesn't rise up against them.
      - bigyabai 5mo ago
        Sorry, but that's not the reason. This is a symmetrical response to CENTCOM and the Israeli Military Censor's policy of freezing OSINT in-theater. In any case, it's perfectly clear that the internet blackout didn't stop the protests. The protests were never going to topple the government, the CIA/Mossad needs the Kurds to fight the IRGC (and the Kurds don't want to fight).
        Pay08 5mo ago
        Is that why they did similar blackouts in 2019, 2022, and 2024 too?
        bigyabai 5mo ago
        It absolutely could be one of the motives, I'm not a member of the IRGC so I couldn't tell you for certain. I do know that the IDF and CENTCOM have been censoring in-theater OSINT for decades, and we also know that Iran has the incentives to do the same thing with a larger population. Lacking the CIA and Mossad's censorship tools, a total shutdown is not really that unexpected.
        Pay08 5mo ago
        No. What all of those dates had in common wasn't the USA or Israel, it was protests by the Iranian population. Yes, blackout to prevent OSINT is a thing. That's not why they were doing them in 2019, 2022, and 2024 and it's not why they're doing it now (seeing as it started before the war). They're doing it to suppress their population because they fear an uprising.
        bigyabai 5mo ago
        Even if you do wholeheartedly believe that, then you'd also be willing to concede that it's also intended to suppress Mossad and CIA operatives working domestically. It's not possible to argue that the only motivation is suppressing domestic backlash.
    - spwa4 5mo ago
      Yeah, indeed. But you neglect to state why: the population hates the islamist government to such an extent that the Iranian population would use the internet to give US/Israel targeting coordinates for EVERY Iranian official. From Parlementarians, right down to half the traffic cops. The "supreme leader" (wonder if that comes with salami) was famously targeted so successfully because Iranians gave Mossad access to traffic camera footage across Teheran, so they could track officials' movements ... and Iranians did that with full knowledge, even with the intention that that would kill those officials. The Iranian people hate the islamist/palestinian/terrorist axis to such an extent they'll actively collaborate to murder every last one of them. Which is another big thing the islamists are afraid of: if the population gets organized successfully, half of the IRGC will find themselves hanging from the nearest traffic light. So you're both correct, they're terrified of their own people, and they're terrified of OSINT. You are, however, trying to spin that as support for the regime, when of course it is the exact opposite, to an extreme extent.
      - bigyabai 5mo ago
        I'm not trying to spin it as support for the regime, there's no part of the thread where I did so. CENTCOM and the State of Israel both deal with the same threat vector, and their response is to use the NSA's SIGINT technology to track, profile and selectively censor their threats. The IRGC lacks the technology to perform that same level of domestic spycraft, so they naturally reach for a blanket blackout (much like what we see in Moscow right now). There are objectively smart and dumb choices that can be made in this conflict. It's smart to blockade Iran as soon as the Strait closes, it's smart to prefer diplomacy to a taxpayer-funded land invasion. Similarly, I will credit the IRGC with using the blackout to their advantage. It's a tactically potent, symmetrical response that refuses to cede leverage to the BLUFOR coalition. Their cards are being played so well that it's fair to ask whether or not the CCP is just spoonfeeding them American tactics they found through Salt Typhoon.
        spwa4 5mo ago
        > Similarly, I will credit the IRGC with using the blackout to their advantage ... No it's not. It's just doing what they always do: taking hostages and threatening to damage a LOT of people's lives just so they can feel good, feel strong without of course actually being strong, with both themselves and the Iranian population living in misery just to cause problems for the rest of the world. They have made every last friend they have into enemies. Both the Iraqi and Lebanese governments are attacking them now. Hostages when you have no way out ... is about as smart as a bank robber taking a hostage. It helps until the snipers arrive. Then, a bullet with your name on it gets loaded and no further comment from you is required. Iran's islamists are creating a situation where the entire world has no other choice but to destroy them. It is beyond stupid. The outcome they are desperate to create would utterly destroy THEM. And in their desperate attempts to so that they're giving everyone who might have chosen to protect them into enemies screaming at the world that they need to be dealt with.
sysguest 5mo ago
this well... so obvious
xbmcuser 5mo ago
I think the regime narrative is mostly made up by Americans what's the difference between any of the Arab countries from Iran. The only difference is they are not controlled by America. It the same bullshit narrative of promoting democracy but in reality it's just about pushing for a government no matter how bad as long as it supports US control.
- E-Reverance 5mo ago
  FYI it’s not an Arab country
  - xbmcuser 5mo ago
    [flagged]
    - tptacek 5mo ago
      It's not an Arab country at all. Iranians are Persian, not Arab. Iran is low-key at war with most of the gulf Arab states.
      - xbmcuser 5mo ago
        And no where in any of my statements did I call it an Arab country. I was just calling out hypocrisy of the west when realistically Iran regime is as good or bad as any of the Arab countries or even the untouchable Israel.
      - csomar 5mo ago
        Not sure why he is being called for this (or maybe he edited his comment?) but I re-read it a couple times and he is not saying Iran is an Arab country but comparing to the other Arab countries.
        xbmcuser 5mo ago
        It's normal. They can't debate the actual statement, so they talk about something irrelevant to derail the conversation.
tokioyoyo 5mo ago
How did people organize pre-Internet times though?
- marcosdumay 5mo ago
  Through social gatherings that mostly don't exist anymore.
fgfarben 5mo ago
which is the exact same reason China bans Starlink.
- markdown 5mo ago
  I wonder why BYD is banned in the US. Are we afraid they'll be used to transport people to gatherings?
  - SXX 5mo ago
    I'm not from US, but China is certainly subsidize a lot of its manufacturers to capture global markets while not giving access to it's local market to western companies. US is able to produce cars on its soil and there is no reason to give up this industry to foreign country. It's pretty sane policy.
    - maxglute 5mo ago
      PRC gave/gives way more managed market access to US/west than vice versa, they just historically limit to JVs where foreign partners capped at 50/50% ownership. Almost every western product that's not export controlled, PRC buys, i.e. there's way more western cars / tech in PRC market via JV tax than vice versa. Versus western approach to PRC competitive goods is functionally structural exclusion. EU on open to JVs even if they're incapable of providing same we do all the work you collect cheques value add that PRC offered, but they have audacity to ask for tier1 PRC crown jewel tech while PRC took tier2 legacy western tech, and EU wants 51% lol while not being able to allocate land, build factories, mobilize 10000s workforce on a dime like PRC. Hence PRC not biting. The difference is PRC has confidence they can indigenize tech/processes and compete, so giving western companies broader access to even strategic sectors long term worthwhile, especially sectors they're behind in. West either doesn't have that confidence or understands they'll get stomped even in PRC parity/fair JV arrangement and better to lock in with protectionism that now surpass PRC protectionism, or have retarded JV asks. Which is a pretty sane policy until PRC moves past parity and extend gap despite mountains of ineffective western subsidies.
- SXX 5mo ago
dzhiurgis 5mo ago
There's something to be said if it connects (via ethernet or via hidden eSIM) Starlink to local Iranian internet - it is hard to access otherwise. There is no doubt that CIA has access to Starlink, that's a massive amount of crucial intel right there in battlefront.
ajewhere2 5mo ago
[dead]

[flagged]

There's multiple motives, not just counter-organization. A media blackout prevents OSINT damage analysis, much like how the IDF and CENTCOM both censor reporting of attacks on their in-theater installations.

Pay08 5mo ago
They could easily just censor that, especially since a dictatorship has far more control over the media compared to democracies.
- bigyabai 5mo ago
  The OSINT is a bigger threat than the state media in Iran, hence the internet blackout.
  - Pay08 5mo ago
    No, the internet blackout is so their populace doesn't rise up against them.
    - bigyabai 5mo ago
      Sorry, but that's not the reason. This is a symmetrical response to CENTCOM and the Israeli Military Censor's policy of freezing OSINT in-theater. In any case, it's perfectly clear that the internet blackout didn't stop the protests. The protests were never going to topple the government, the CIA/Mossad needs the Kurds to fight the IRGC (and the Kurds don't want to fight).
      - Pay08 5mo ago
        Is that why they did similar blackouts in 2019, 2022, and 2024 too?
        bigyabai 5mo ago
        It absolutely could be one of the motives, I'm not a member of the IRGC so I couldn't tell you for certain. I do know that the IDF and CENTCOM have been censoring in-theater OSINT for decades, and we also know that Iran has the incentives to do the same thing with a larger population. Lacking the CIA and Mossad's censorship tools, a total shutdown is not really that unexpected.
        Pay08 5mo ago
        No. What all of those dates had in common wasn't the USA or Israel, it was protests by the Iranian population. Yes, blackout to prevent OSINT is a thing. That's not why they were doing them in 2019, 2022, and 2024 and it's not why they're doing it now (seeing as it started before the war). They're doing it to suppress their population because they fear an uprising.
        bigyabai 5mo ago
        Even if you do wholeheartedly believe that, then you'd also be willing to concede that it's also intended to suppress Mossad and CIA operatives working domestically. It's not possible to argue that the only motivation is suppressing domestic backlash.
  - spwa4 5mo ago
    Yeah, indeed. But you neglect to state why: the population hates the islamist government to such an extent that the Iranian population would use the internet to give US/Israel targeting coordinates for EVERY Iranian official. From Parlementarians, right down to half the traffic cops. The "supreme leader" (wonder if that comes with salami) was famously targeted so successfully because Iranians gave Mossad access to traffic camera footage across Teheran, so they could track officials' movements ... and Iranians did that with full knowledge, even with the intention that that would kill those officials. The Iranian people hate the islamist/palestinian/terrorist axis to such an extent they'll actively collaborate to murder every last one of them. Which is another big thing the islamists are afraid of: if the population gets organized successfully, half of the IRGC will find themselves hanging from the nearest traffic light. So you're both correct, they're terrified of their own people, and they're terrified of OSINT. You are, however, trying to spin that as support for the regime, when of course it is the exact opposite, to an extreme extent.
    - bigyabai 5mo ago
      I'm not trying to spin it as support for the regime, there's no part of the thread where I did so. CENTCOM and the State of Israel both deal with the same threat vector, and their response is to use the NSA's SIGINT technology to track, profile and selectively censor their threats. The IRGC lacks the technology to perform that same level of domestic spycraft, so they naturally reach for a blanket blackout (much like what we see in Moscow right now). There are objectively smart and dumb choices that can be made in this conflict. It's smart to blockade Iran as soon as the Strait closes, it's smart to prefer diplomacy to a taxpayer-funded land invasion. Similarly, I will credit the IRGC with using the blackout to their advantage. It's a tactically potent, symmetrical response that refuses to cede leverage to the BLUFOR coalition. Their cards are being played so well that it's fair to ask whether or not the CCP is just spoonfeeding them American tactics they found through Salt Typhoon.
      - spwa4 5mo ago
        > Similarly, I will credit the IRGC with using the blackout to their advantage ... No it's not. It's just doing what they always do: taking hostages and threatening to damage a LOT of people's lives just so they can feel good, feel strong without of course actually being strong, with both themselves and the Iranian population living in misery just to cause problems for the rest of the world. They have made every last friend they have into enemies. Both the Iraqi and Lebanese governments are attacking them now. Hostages when you have no way out ... is about as smart as a bank robber taking a hostage. It helps until the snipers arrive. Then, a bullet with your name on it gets loaded and no further comment from you is required. Iran's islamists are creating a situation where the entire world has no other choice but to destroy them. It is beyond stupid. The outcome they are desperate to create would utterly destroy THEM. And in their desperate attempts to so that they're giving everyone who might have chosen to protect them into enemies screaming at the world that they need to be dealt with.

sysguest 5mo ago

this well... so obvious

xbmcuser 5mo ago

I think the regime narrative is mostly made up by Americans what's the difference between any of the Arab countries from Iran. The only difference is they are not controlled by America. It the same bullshit narrative of promoting democracy but in reality it's just about pushing for a government no matter how bad as long as it supports US control.

E-Reverance 5mo ago
FYI it’s not an Arab country
- xbmcuser 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - tptacek 5mo ago
    It's not an Arab country at all. Iranians are Persian, not Arab. Iran is low-key at war with most of the gulf Arab states.
    - xbmcuser 5mo ago
      And no where in any of my statements did I call it an Arab country. I was just calling out hypocrisy of the west when realistically Iran regime is as good or bad as any of the Arab countries or even the untouchable Israel.
    - csomar 5mo ago
      Not sure why he is being called for this (or maybe he edited his comment?) but I re-read it a couple times and he is not saying Iran is an Arab country but comparing to the other Arab countries.
      - xbmcuser 5mo ago
        It's normal. They can't debate the actual statement, so they talk about something irrelevant to derail the conversation.

tokioyoyo 5mo ago

How did people organize pre-Internet times though?

marcosdumay 5mo ago
Through social gatherings that mostly don't exist anymore.

fgfarben 5mo ago

which is the exact same reason China bans Starlink.

markdown 5mo ago
I wonder why BYD is banned in the US. Are we afraid they'll be used to transport people to gatherings?
- SXX 5mo ago
  I'm not from US, but China is certainly subsidize a lot of its manufacturers to capture global markets while not giving access to it's local market to western companies. US is able to produce cars on its soil and there is no reason to give up this industry to foreign country. It's pretty sane policy.
  - maxglute 5mo ago
    PRC gave/gives way more managed market access to US/west than vice versa, they just historically limit to JVs where foreign partners capped at 50/50% ownership. Almost every western product that's not export controlled, PRC buys, i.e. there's way more western cars / tech in PRC market via JV tax than vice versa. Versus western approach to PRC competitive goods is functionally structural exclusion. EU on open to JVs even if they're incapable of providing same we do all the work you collect cheques value add that PRC offered, but they have audacity to ask for tier1 PRC crown jewel tech while PRC took tier2 legacy western tech, and EU wants 51% lol while not being able to allocate land, build factories, mobilize 10000s workforce on a dime like PRC. Hence PRC not biting. The difference is PRC has confidence they can indigenize tech/processes and compete, so giving western companies broader access to even strategic sectors long term worthwhile, especially sectors they're behind in. West either doesn't have that confidence or understands they'll get stomped even in PRC parity/fair JV arrangement and better to lock in with protectionism that now surpass PRC protectionism, or have retarded JV asks. Which is a pretty sane policy until PRC moves past parity and extend gap despite mountains of ineffective western subsidies.
SXX 5mo ago

dzhiurgis 5mo ago

There's something to be said if it connects (via ethernet or via hidden eSIM) Starlink to local Iranian internet - it is hard to access otherwise. There is no doubt that CIA has access to Starlink, that's a massive amount of crucial intel right there in battlefront.

ajewhere2 5mo ago

[dead]