4 ms·

naw, we'll just build enough battery to cover the nights and then use gas as emergency backup for any rare wonky weather events. that could easily get us to 90+

by dalyons 5mo ago

naw, we'll just build enough battery to cover the nights and then use gas as emergency backup for any rare wonky weather events. that could easily get us to 90+% clean, which would be absolutely amazing. Constant base load only supply like nukes are economically obsolete. On a modern grid you need a rapid response backup. Which is gas for now, and hopefully we'll come up with something to replace that later.

selfmodruntime 5mo ago
As you have been reminded of in other comments, there is no "enough battery backup". These weather events aren't exactly rare either. Germany for example has on average multiple episodes of both subnormal wind and sun energy production in high-pressure systems.
- dalyons 5mo ago
  Did you read my comment? 10% budget for gas backup buys you 35 days, if on those days there is 0% other production (extremely unlikely). Seems pretty conservative to me?
Manuel_D 5mo ago
Building enough battery to cover the night is still 20,000 to 30,000 GWh. For comparison, global annual battery output in 2025 was 2,200 GWh. Of which only ~ 300GWh went to grid storage. Even just diurnal storage for a completely renewable grid is a truly enormous amount of storage.
- ViewTrick1002 5mo ago
  Given a 10-15 year lifetime of the batteries, with BEVs being flexible storage consumers that seems well within reach in a couple of years? We’re seeing the reshaping of the entire global energy system. Either we jump on the train or get run over.
  - Manuel_D 5mo ago
    More like a few decades, if ever. Battery production is estimated to reach 6.8 TWh per year in 2035 [1]. But only 12% of this is expected to go to battery storage systems, yielding just 800 GWh. 12 hours of storage worldwide at current electricity demand is 30,000 GWh. And by 2035, electricity demand is going to be more than that, as transportation and industry is increasingly electrified and migrated off of fossil fuels. To reiterate, this is just for 12 hours of storage. Seasonal fluctuations can depress renewable generation for days or even weeks. 1. https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future-mobility/our-insights/battery-2035-building-new-advantages https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future...
    - dalyons 5mo ago
      wind runs through the night, and so does hydro and existing nuclear. So lets say, 15,000gwh that needs shifting? Still a big number, but... BESS increased 45% y/y in 2025, and is looking like higher growth than that in 2026 already ~60% (1). Im optimistic that the mckinsey conservative linear estimates of growth are missing the s-curve of scaling new tech, just like they did for solar. They only have to be wrong by a little y/y and we get to 1000ghw a year by 2030 (note, they released a more recent study that pulled 800gwh/year in to closer to 2030 [2], the previous study was already too conservative) . At 1twh a year we're seriously chipping away at emissions, we're done in 15 years if nothing else changes (which of course it will, both on the demand and supply side). Still, thats actually incredible! 1 https://www.energy-storage.news/over-17gwh-of-bess-deployed-globally-in-february-2026/ https://www.energy-storage.news/over-17gwh-of-bess-deployed-... 2 https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/batteries-back-the-grid https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/ba...
      - Manuel_D 5mo ago
        Wind doesn't cut out at night, but it also experiences long periods of low production: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46617 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46617 It is unquestionably an intermittent source that would require overprovisioning and large amounts of storage to even out periods of underproduction. The projections for battery growth might be off, sure. But it's also possible the growth is a little bit under the projections year over year, and then we're looking at much less battery production five years. You're invoking uncertainty, but only considering it in one direction.

by dalyons 5mo ago

selfmodruntime 5mo ago

As you have been reminded of in other comments, there is no "enough battery backup". These weather events aren't exactly rare either. Germany for example has on average multiple episodes of both subnormal wind and sun energy production in high-pressure systems.

dalyons 5mo ago
Did you read my comment? 10% budget for gas backup buys you 35 days, if on those days there is 0% other production (extremely unlikely). Seems pretty conservative to me?

Manuel_D 5mo ago

Building enough battery to cover the night is still 20,000 to 30,000 GWh. For comparison, global annual battery output in 2025 was 2,200 GWh. Of which only ~ 300GWh went to grid storage. Even just diurnal storage for a completely renewable grid is a truly enormous amount of storage.

ViewTrick1002 5mo ago
Given a 10-15 year lifetime of the batteries, with BEVs being flexible storage consumers that seems well within reach in a couple of years? We’re seeing the reshaping of the entire global energy system. Either we jump on the train or get run over.
- Manuel_D 5mo ago
  More like a few decades, if ever. Battery production is estimated to reach 6.8 TWh per year in 2035 [1]. But only 12% of this is expected to go to battery storage systems, yielding just 800 GWh. 12 hours of storage worldwide at current electricity demand is 30,000 GWh. And by 2035, electricity demand is going to be more than that, as transportation and industry is increasingly electrified and migrated off of fossil fuels. To reiterate, this is just for 12 hours of storage. Seasonal fluctuations can depress renewable generation for days or even weeks. 1. https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future-mobility/our-insights/battery-2035-building-new-advantages https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future...
  - dalyons 5mo ago
    wind runs through the night, and so does hydro and existing nuclear. So lets say, 15,000gwh that needs shifting? Still a big number, but... BESS increased 45% y/y in 2025, and is looking like higher growth than that in 2026 already ~60% (1). Im optimistic that the mckinsey conservative linear estimates of growth are missing the s-curve of scaling new tech, just like they did for solar. They only have to be wrong by a little y/y and we get to 1000ghw a year by 2030 (note, they released a more recent study that pulled 800gwh/year in to closer to 2030 [2], the previous study was already too conservative) . At 1twh a year we're seriously chipping away at emissions, we're done in 15 years if nothing else changes (which of course it will, both on the demand and supply side). Still, thats actually incredible! 1 https://www.energy-storage.news/over-17gwh-of-bess-deployed-globally-in-february-2026/ https://www.energy-storage.news/over-17gwh-of-bess-deployed-... 2 https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/batteries-back-the-grid https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/ba...
    - Manuel_D 5mo ago
      Wind doesn't cut out at night, but it also experiences long periods of low production: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46617 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46617 It is unquestionably an intermittent source that would require overprovisioning and large amounts of storage to even out periods of underproduction. The projections for battery growth might be off, sure. But it's also possible the growth is a little bit under the projections year over year, and then we're looking at much less battery production five years. You're invoking uncertainty, but only considering it in one direction.