3 ms·

have a read through this: https://cleanenergyreview.io/p/baseload-is-a-myth https://cleanenergyreview.io/p/baseload-is-a-myth basically, base load means the lo

by dalyons 5mo ago

have a read through this: https://cleanenergyreview.io/p/baseload-is-a-myth https://cleanenergyreview.io/p/baseload-is-a-myth basically, base load means the lowest point of demand on the grid. And you matched that with slow-to-respond thermal power plants (coal mainly, also nukes). Because those are slow to respond and are most profitable running at 100%, so you tried to keep them there. So called base load generation. But note there is no rule of the universe that says you have to meet the base load demand with some static constant power source, you can get it from anywhere. And now, since renewables and batteries are cheaper than this base load generation, it knocks them off the grid rendering it unprofitable. So the whole concept of base load supply is obsolete. Anyway, the linked blog explains it better.

leonidasrup 5mo ago
You don't need to run coal power plant close to 100% to be profitable. You want to run nuclear power plant close to 100% because fuel is cheap and you want pay back CAPEX as early as possible. The article you send is perfect example why it's not economic to build new coal or nuclear power plants in US. The reasons are: very cheap natural gas and no CO2 tax. In US natural gas + solar is the cheapest way to generate electricity. In Europe the situation is very different. "Europe is in the opposite spot. The continent's main gas point, the TTF benchmark, nearly doubled to over €60/MWh by mid-March." https://www.briefs.co/news/u-s-natural-gas-just-hit-a-record-negative-streak-while-europes-doubled/ https://www.briefs.co/news/u-s-natural-gas-just-hit-a-record...
- dalyons 5mo ago
  so what should europe do? gas being expensive doesnt make nuclear economics better for the role of variable backstop of an increasingly renewable grid. Its still a fatal economic equation for nuclear. Btw battery is rapidly changing the math on > US natural gas + solar is the cheapest way to generate electricity california went from 45% gas in 2022 to 25% gas in 2025 almost entirely because of batteries (and more solar), and they're just getting started. I know its not generally true across the US, but very soon batteries are going to be pushing a huge amount of gas off the grid.
  - leonidasrup 5mo ago
    Europe should: 1. Think very hard how to reduce reliance on imports (US, Russia, Middle East fossil fuels), (China solar, batteries, consumer goods). 2. Think very hard about the decarbinization strategy. The strategy was: we will replace fossil fuels with renewables, we will be successfull, everybody else will see how see how successfull we are and everybody will follow our example. This strategy is not working, world-wide CO2 emmisions are increasing every year, industry from Europe is moving outside Europe because high energy prices, GDP is stagnating. Europe should think how to push other major CO2 emmiters China, India, US, to strongly decrease CO2. Europe alone will fail to fix climate change.
- dv_dt 5mo ago
  Renewable + battery is already the cheapest and fastest way to build new power in many domains + geographies, and the number of and range keeps expanding as the price keeps dropping. It's always a peculiar response that outright ignores certain power combos, and it always seems to come in nuclear discussions.
  - leonidasrup 5mo ago
    You mean solar + batteries. Batteries can be used to flatten the day/night cycle of a solar power plant on many days. But it's depending on location and it's not cheap. For cost of $100 / MWh, you can do it in sunny regions like Spain, Mexico, middle East. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-solar-panels-and-batteries-can-now-run-close-to-24-365-in-some-cities/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-solar-panels-and-... It doesn't make economic sense to combine batteries with wind, because periods of low wind output can be multiple weeks long. The betterie costs would be ridiculous. How do you cover the last 10-20% of the missing solar+wind+batteries output, at what cost? Usually its a combo of solar+wind+batteries+fosil , costs depend gas cost and CO2 costs.
    - dv_dt 5mo ago
      Five years ago, skeptics were saying a few hours of grid on battery was "impossible" and coal would be displaced only by gas. Now we're talking days of grid supply from batteries even from non-grid optimal lithium tech. Batteries are following the manufacturing optimization S-curve and its not even on the fastest part of the curve yet. Lithium is dominant only because its early in the pipe but multiple types of other battery techs (flow, iron+ etc) will probably become viable unlocking weeks -> months -> seasons of output. And probably this will happen before the first nuclear plant from this Iran adventure energy squeeze is even ready to light up - as its taking the west 20+ years to plan and commission a nuclear plant.
      - leonidasrup 5mo ago
        It took decades to develop, comercialize lithium batteries, starting in 1970s. Only after 2016 we started to see a large growth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_bat... Cheap gas has displaced lot of coal in US, staring from 2007, fracking gas revolution. In China not much. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?time=2001..latest&country=~USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?t... Currently, the Iran energy squeeze is not much felt in the west, just slight increase in prices. It would take real pain, something like 1973 oil crisis, for west to reconsider nuclear power generation.

by dalyons 5mo ago

leonidasrup 5mo ago

You don't need to run coal power plant close to 100% to be profitable. You want to run nuclear power plant close to 100% because fuel is cheap and you want pay back CAPEX as early as possible. The article you send is perfect example why it's not economic to build new coal or nuclear power plants in US. The reasons are: very cheap natural gas and no CO2 tax. In US natural gas + solar is the cheapest way to generate electricity. In Europe the situation is very different. "Europe is in the opposite spot. The continent's main gas point, the TTF benchmark, nearly doubled to over €60/MWh by mid-March." https://www.briefs.co/news/u-s-natural-gas-just-hit-a-record-negative-streak-while-europes-doubled/ https://www.briefs.co/news/u-s-natural-gas-just-hit-a-record...

dalyons 5mo ago
so what should europe do? gas being expensive doesnt make nuclear economics better for the role of variable backstop of an increasingly renewable grid. Its still a fatal economic equation for nuclear. Btw battery is rapidly changing the math on > US natural gas + solar is the cheapest way to generate electricity california went from 45% gas in 2022 to 25% gas in 2025 almost entirely because of batteries (and more solar), and they're just getting started. I know its not generally true across the US, but very soon batteries are going to be pushing a huge amount of gas off the grid.
- leonidasrup 5mo ago
  Europe should: 1. Think very hard how to reduce reliance on imports (US, Russia, Middle East fossil fuels), (China solar, batteries, consumer goods). 2. Think very hard about the decarbinization strategy. The strategy was: we will replace fossil fuels with renewables, we will be successfull, everybody else will see how see how successfull we are and everybody will follow our example. This strategy is not working, world-wide CO2 emmisions are increasing every year, industry from Europe is moving outside Europe because high energy prices, GDP is stagnating. Europe should think how to push other major CO2 emmiters China, India, US, to strongly decrease CO2. Europe alone will fail to fix climate change.
dv_dt 5mo ago
Renewable + battery is already the cheapest and fastest way to build new power in many domains + geographies, and the number of and range keeps expanding as the price keeps dropping. It's always a peculiar response that outright ignores certain power combos, and it always seems to come in nuclear discussions.
- leonidasrup 5mo ago
  You mean solar + batteries. Batteries can be used to flatten the day/night cycle of a solar power plant on many days. But it's depending on location and it's not cheap. For cost of $100 / MWh, you can do it in sunny regions like Spain, Mexico, middle East. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-solar-panels-and-batteries-can-now-run-close-to-24-365-in-some-cities/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-solar-panels-and-... It doesn't make economic sense to combine batteries with wind, because periods of low wind output can be multiple weeks long. The betterie costs would be ridiculous. How do you cover the last 10-20% of the missing solar+wind+batteries output, at what cost? Usually its a combo of solar+wind+batteries+fosil , costs depend gas cost and CO2 costs.
  - dv_dt 5mo ago
    Five years ago, skeptics were saying a few hours of grid on battery was "impossible" and coal would be displaced only by gas. Now we're talking days of grid supply from batteries even from non-grid optimal lithium tech. Batteries are following the manufacturing optimization S-curve and its not even on the fastest part of the curve yet. Lithium is dominant only because its early in the pipe but multiple types of other battery techs (flow, iron+ etc) will probably become viable unlocking weeks -> months -> seasons of output. And probably this will happen before the first nuclear plant from this Iran adventure energy squeeze is even ready to light up - as its taking the west 20+ years to plan and commission a nuclear plant.
    - leonidasrup 5mo ago
      It took decades to develop, comercialize lithium batteries, starting in 1970s. Only after 2016 we started to see a large growth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_lithium-ion_bat... Cheap gas has displaced lot of coal in US, staring from 2007, fracking gas revolution. In China not much. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?time=2001..latest&country=~USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?t... Currently, the Iran energy squeeze is not much felt in the west, just slight increase in prices. It would take real pain, something like 1973 oil crisis, for west to reconsider nuclear power generation.