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> Edit: love to see a source for how cheap renewables _increase_ energy costs as you claimed That is just economics. The intermittent nature of renewable mean

by adev_ 5mo ago

> Edit: love to see a source for how cheap renewables _increase_ energy costs as you claimed That is just economics. The intermittent nature of renewable means that overcapacity is structurally required to arrive to match partially the demand. As an example, Germany has > 100GW of Solar installed capacity for a country where the average power demand is around ~60GW *total*. Overcapacity means that the price of electricity naturally goes to zero (or even to negative) as soon as the sun shine. And this is very visible on the EU electricity market currently [1]. It is (obviously) terrible for the profitability of the means of production and it is not sustainable: No investor sane of mind would put money on the table for a system that sell at negative price when it produces... To compensate that, most EU countries created the CfDs (Contract for difference) system. A minimum price is guaranteed by contract to the investor and the State pay the difference when the price are too low. The UK did it (and it costs billions) [2], France did it (and it costs billions) [3] and Germany is doing it [4]. So we are subsidizing and using public money to create an artificial profitability on top of an industry that we know is not profitable due to overcapacity caused by bad public policies. Considering that this overcapacity is also reducing the profitability of nuclear powerplants in the first place (because nuclear is CAPEX based). The pain is triple: The final consumer pays (1) the cost of the Grid restructuring for renewable (2) the cost of the Cfds to maintain the system alive due to overcapacity (3) the additional €/MWh to the now reduced profitability of the historical production means. So yes, at the end, the price increase. And it is what we see currently everywhere in Europe: Electricity price are increasing continuously even if Solar/Wind LCOE is lower than ever. [1]: https://ibb.co/6cf99PfZ https://ibb.co/6cf99PfZ [2]: https://davidturver.substack.com/p/another-record-year-cfd-subsidies-2025 https://davidturver.substack.com/p/another-record-year-cfd-s... [3]: https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/european-commission-greenlights-eu11bn-cfd-scheme-french-offshore-wind.html https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/euro... [4]: https://www.aoshearman.com/en/insights/germany-to-reset-government-support-for-renewable-can-cfds-restore-investor-confidence-in-its-offs https://www.aoshearman.com/en/insights/germany-to-reset-gove...

dalyons 5mo ago
I don’t know about the particulars of the EU schemes, but it doesn’t have to be that way. Elsewhere in the world, Australia is saving money due to the rollout of renewables [1]. So is the UK [2] 3. A billion in march alone. 1 https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/record-battery-growth-is-pushing-power-prices-down-20260429-p5zs6s https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/record-battery... 2 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/28/wind-power-cut-uk-energy-costs-ucl-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/28/wind-pow... 3 https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-wind-and-solar-saved-uk-from-gas-imports-worth-1bn-in-march-2026/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-wind-and-solar-s...
- Moldoteck 5mo ago
  UK and SA have one of the highest prices for households globally...
tialaramex 5mo ago
The CfDs pay either party the difference. Their effect is to make the cost of that electricity guaranteed, it's actually a remarkably cost effective mechanism. The subsidy is that different technologies secure a premium on the CfD. For a UK solar farm the strike price most recently was £65 per MWh. In case you were wondering no, nobody will run a gas power plant for £65 per MWh, even before Trump's war spiked price 50-100% Yes, the offshore wind farms are significantly more expensive than a solar CfD, their strike prices were close to £100 and for that much money (adjusting for inflation) you could definitely get interest from gas plants, especially before the war - but now we're into the weeds about platform diversity. A Middle East war seems like a particularly stupid time to insist we shouldn't desire diversity... Because of how summer works, this "But solar energy is expensive, gas is cheaper" is going to take a break for a few months because it will seem very silly, but it won't go far, expect it back in autumn.
- dalyons 5mo ago
  the last offshore wind auction was 90, and that beat gas at 40% even before the war. https://electrek.co/2026/01/14/uk-offshore-wind-record-auction/ https://electrek.co/2026/01/14/uk-offshore-wind-record-aucti... The next one in july should be interesting!
- mpweiher 5mo ago
  Yeah, but solar is "whenever I want to deliver" electricity, not "when I need electricity". Not the same product.
  - tialaramex 5mo ago
    For wind this makes a little bit of sense, but for solar "whenever I want to deliver" is largely once per day as regular as clockwork for several hours and that means you can bridge with BESS. You can already see it in charts, initially BESS shifts some of that peak midday sun energy to evening usage where it's worth more to us, but gradually competition drives down that evening price and so the BESS cuts deep into the night chasing those higher prices. It's most exaggerated in Australia today, where the reason the power is relatively cheap when you wake up before dawn isn't that somehow coal is less expensive at night - it is because much of that is solar power from yesterday and if they don't sell it to you now for whatever price they can get they've wasted a whole cycle, 'cos the sun, with free power, is coming up like it or not.

by adev_ 5mo ago

dalyons 5mo ago

I don’t know about the particulars of the EU schemes, but it doesn’t have to be that way. Elsewhere in the world, Australia is saving money due to the rollout of renewables [1]. So is the UK [2] 3. A billion in march alone. 1 https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/record-battery-growth-is-pushing-power-prices-down-20260429-p5zs6s https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/record-battery... 2 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/28/wind-power-cut-uk-energy-costs-ucl-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/28/wind-pow... 3 https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-wind-and-solar-saved-uk-from-gas-imports-worth-1bn-in-march-2026/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-wind-and-solar-s...

Moldoteck 5mo ago
UK and SA have one of the highest prices for households globally...

tialaramex 5mo ago

The CfDs pay either party the difference. Their effect is to make the cost of that electricity guaranteed, it's actually a remarkably cost effective mechanism. The subsidy is that different technologies secure a premium on the CfD. For a UK solar farm the strike price most recently was £65 per MWh. In case you were wondering no, nobody will run a gas power plant for £65 per MWh, even before Trump's war spiked price 50-100% Yes, the offshore wind farms are significantly more expensive than a solar CfD, their strike prices were close to £100 and for that much money (adjusting for inflation) you could definitely get interest from gas plants, especially before the war - but now we're into the weeds about platform diversity. A Middle East war seems like a particularly stupid time to insist we shouldn't desire diversity... Because of how summer works, this "But solar energy is expensive, gas is cheaper" is going to take a break for a few months because it will seem very silly, but it won't go far, expect it back in autumn.

dalyons 5mo ago
the last offshore wind auction was 90, and that beat gas at 40% even before the war. https://electrek.co/2026/01/14/uk-offshore-wind-record-auction/ https://electrek.co/2026/01/14/uk-offshore-wind-record-aucti... The next one in july should be interesting!
mpweiher 5mo ago
Yeah, but solar is "whenever I want to deliver" electricity, not "when I need electricity". Not the same product.
- tialaramex 5mo ago
  For wind this makes a little bit of sense, but for solar "whenever I want to deliver" is largely once per day as regular as clockwork for several hours and that means you can bridge with BESS. You can already see it in charts, initially BESS shifts some of that peak midday sun energy to evening usage where it's worth more to us, but gradually competition drives down that evening price and so the BESS cuts deep into the night chasing those higher prices. It's most exaggerated in Australia today, where the reason the power is relatively cheap when you wake up before dawn isn't that somehow coal is less expensive at night - it is because much of that is solar power from yesterday and if they don't sell it to you now for whatever price they can get they've wasted a whole cycle, 'cos the sun, with free power, is coming up like it or not.