4 ms·

It's so disgusting watching how much sports gambling and "prediction markets" have exploded in recent years

estearum 6mo ago
IMO prediction markets are an interesting tool but you can just ban sports gambling and keep 100% of their value and remove 90% of their downsides.
- rapind 6mo ago
  Prediction markets are 90% sports gambling.
  - estearum 6mo ago
    So?
    - rapind 6mo ago
      So prediction markets solely exist as a way to sidestep regulation of sports gambling (mostly) and insider trading secondarily. It's just grift.
      - estearum 6mo ago
        That conclusion doesn’t follow from the premise at all lol. Low-effort complaining, not interested.
- vkou 6mo ago
  You can also ban 100% of gambling advertising and get 100% of the (dubious, but I'll humour the possibility) 'benefits' of gambling, while removing 90% of the downsides.
  - estearum 6mo ago
    Agreed with that too
- idle_zealot 6mo ago
  Can you explain the value you're talking about?
  - estearum 6mo ago
    Highly liquid markets are good information compression systems, but existing financial markets tend to be impossible to disaggregate with regard to any discrete event you care about.
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
- neaden 6mo ago
  I'll be honest as someone who doesn't gamble my perception is the prediction markets are just people with inside information using that to con money out of people. I don't see the value in it.
  - estearum 6mo ago
    Well if you think of the point as "winning money" then that really sucks (which I've discussed in prior comments as a big problem for overall participation). If the point is instead to extract and compress information into a simple numerical prediction, then the insider trading is arguably a feature more than a bug. Not to say it shouldn't be viciously punished, to be clear.
ryandrake 6mo ago
I'd argue that, while a portion of this rise obviously consists of troubled/problem/addicted gamblers, a huge part of the rise of gambling is from desperation: The public's growing belief that the traditional wealth-producing ladders have all been pulled up, and that gambling is the last remaining hope that normal people have of making decent money. "Work hard all your life and retire with a pension." - fantasy in 2026. "Invent something new and capitalize on it." - not realistic in the face of gigantic, powerful, all-owning corporations who will squash you. "Buy an existing business and live off the proceeds." - impossible without existing wealth. "Become a famous pop star or sports hero." - as improbable as ever. People have no hope anymore, and hopeless people turn to random chance as the last and only remaining option.
- moneycantbuy 6mo ago
  yeah it seems winning the lottery is now our best chance for survival.
- ryanchants 6mo ago
  > "Become a famous pop star or sports hero." - as improbable as ever. It's even more improbable. For both of those, your starting to see more and more of the current generation that are children/nieces/nephews of the already famous. They have the financial comfort to pursue it, and the family connections in the industries. And for sports, the level at which you have to be competitive is getting younger and younger. So much more sports science/nutrition going in at the middle school/high school level. Those were two fields that seemingly were still meritocratic, but that is fading fast, if it ever existed at all.
  - flopsamjetsam 6mo ago
    > And for sports, the level at which you have to be competitive is getting younger and younger. So much more sports science/nutrition going in at the middle school/high school level. For endurance-based sports, online coaching has really accelerated this as well. For skills, you still really need in-person coaching.
  - AirMax98 6mo ago

IMO prediction markets are an interesting tool but you can just ban sports gambling and keep 100% of their value and remove 90% of their downsides.

rapind 6mo ago
Prediction markets are 90% sports gambling.
- estearum 6mo ago
  So?
  - rapind 6mo ago
    So prediction markets solely exist as a way to sidestep regulation of sports gambling (mostly) and insider trading secondarily. It's just grift.
    - estearum 6mo ago
      That conclusion doesn’t follow from the premise at all lol. Low-effort complaining, not interested.
vkou 6mo ago
You can also ban 100% of gambling advertising and get 100% of the (dubious, but I'll humour the possibility) 'benefits' of gambling, while removing 90% of the downsides.
- estearum 6mo ago
  Agreed with that too
idle_zealot 6mo ago
Can you explain the value you're talking about?
- estearum 6mo ago
  Highly liquid markets are good information compression systems, but existing financial markets tend to be impossible to disaggregate with regard to any discrete event you care about.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
neaden 6mo ago
I'll be honest as someone who doesn't gamble my perception is the prediction markets are just people with inside information using that to con money out of people. I don't see the value in it.
- estearum 6mo ago
  Well if you think of the point as "winning money" then that really sucks (which I've discussed in prior comments as a big problem for overall participation). If the point is instead to extract and compress information into a simple numerical prediction, then the insider trading is arguably a feature more than a bug. Not to say it shouldn't be viciously punished, to be clear.

ryandrake 6mo ago

I'd argue that, while a portion of this rise obviously consists of troubled/problem/addicted gamblers, a huge part of the rise of gambling is from desperation: The public's growing belief that the traditional wealth-producing ladders have all been pulled up, and that gambling is the last remaining hope that normal people have of making decent money. "Work hard all your life and retire with a pension." - fantasy in 2026. "Invent something new and capitalize on it." - not realistic in the face of gigantic, powerful, all-owning corporations who will squash you. "Buy an existing business and live off the proceeds." - impossible without existing wealth. "Become a famous pop star or sports hero." - as improbable as ever. People have no hope anymore, and hopeless people turn to random chance as the last and only remaining option.

moneycantbuy 6mo ago
yeah it seems winning the lottery is now our best chance for survival.
ryanchants 6mo ago
> "Become a famous pop star or sports hero." - as improbable as ever. It's even more improbable. For both of those, your starting to see more and more of the current generation that are children/nieces/nephews of the already famous. They have the financial comfort to pursue it, and the family connections in the industries. And for sports, the level at which you have to be competitive is getting younger and younger. So much more sports science/nutrition going in at the middle school/high school level. Those were two fields that seemingly were still meritocratic, but that is fading fast, if it ever existed at all.
- flopsamjetsam 6mo ago
  > And for sports, the level at which you have to be competitive is getting younger and younger. So much more sports science/nutrition going in at the middle school/high school level. For endurance-based sports, online coaching has really accelerated this as well. For skills, you still really need in-person coaching.
- AirMax98 6mo ago