4 ms·

It is unavoidable that, at some point, China will have its own matching or better machine because they obviously how incredibly strategically important it is.

codeulike 6mo ago
"at some point" is doing a lot of work there. How long do you think?
- dnnddidiej 6mo ago
  30 years
KermitTheFrog 6mo ago
Non-zero chances - yes. Unavoidable - I wouldn't be so sure. I can't imagine how many top human-hours and cutting-edge inventions involved to construct this machine. And much of this simply cannot be stolen or bought, no matter how much money you have.
- mytailorisrich 6mo ago
  It has never happened in the history of the world that a company or country could maintain its technological advance indefinitely. Either China will catch up on this or that particular technology will become obsolete. But it is certain that they won't stay behind forever (measured in a small number of decades at most).
  - codeulike 6mo ago
    Right but if you dont say how long it will take them, youre not really saying anything.
    - mytailorisrich 6mo ago
      > measured in a small number of decades at most
      - codeulike 6mo ago
        By "a small number of decades" do you mean from now, or starting from 15 years ago when the ASML Twinscan NXE:3100 made it debut?
    - adrian_b 6mo ago
      There is no doubt that less than 10 years will be needed for China to be able to do something equivalent to what the ASML machines can do now. What is far less certain is what ASML will be able to do at that time, i.e. if they will be able to progress significantly over the state-of-the-art of today, or they will reach a plateau. Besides China, there is a renewed effort in Japan to become competitive again, so ASML may face in the future both Chinese and Japanese competitors.
    - Danox 6mo ago
      5 years China 5 years Japan 10 years Korea
  - wincy 6mo ago
    I mean you’ve definitely just had technology disappear though, usually because of war. Damascus Steel was a lost military tech. We could certainly end up just accidentally (or worse, intentionally) bomb this stuff out of existence so nobody has it.
  - dublinstats 6mo ago
    This is kind of like saying you can prove everyone dies based on the evidence that everyone who is not currently alive has died. You might place an upper limit using history but in this case I'd guess that limit would end up being much larger than the present semiconductor industry itself might last.
    - mytailorisrich 6mo ago
      I'd say it is more likely than within 20 years the domestic Chinese semiconductor industry will be state-of-the-art across the full vertical and horizontal range. There is a level of arrogance in the West that China does cheap but simple/low quality whereas this is only a stepping stone along the way. German car manufacturers went into China during the 90s with that mindset, and expecting it was forever, well they don't think that anymore...
- maxglute 6mo ago
  One can ballpark it, during EUV commercialization, ASML had 15k employees, Zeiss 3k, Cymer 1k. 20 years of non priority commercial development, lots of setbacks. Final integration ~5k suppliers. For reference commercial aviation Boeing/Airbus with as 100k employees, 50k suppliers. And we don't even know it's correct technical roadmap. Initially they thought synchrotron better than plasma/LPP but went with latter because synchrotron too expensive, now EUV machine prices ballooned to multiple synchrotron price. Don't be surprise if we find it dead end non competitive tech in 5-10 years if PRC or JP figures out SSMB/FEL etc, LPP may become economically uncompetitive and all ASML EUV becomes stranded assets. This real possibly because while ASML LPP works, it works at far higher cost than original projections, i.e. it's overbudget techstack with lethal scaling costs. On paper EUV relatively modest undertaking vs commercial aviation, EUV deeper integration vs commercial aviation breadth, but in terms of scale of effort for nation state coordination, EUV probably all things considered, easier to replicate because it has no regulatory slowdown, it's purely host country physics problem. Having enough talent and throwing it at problem x espionage x poaching talent x time will likely solve precision physics problem sooner than later. Vs commercial aviation which has complicated geopolitical/regulatory hurdles and magnitude more suppliers and scale. TLDR EUV has smaller organizational surface area for determined state to pursue through concentrating $$$, talent and effort. You can buy a ex ASML to bootstrap EUV development, much harder to get globe to buy COMAC without decades of airworthiness. There's a reason western analysts predict PRC EUV in 2030s (meanwhile PRC already beat prototype estimate timeline), but probably not realistic for global COMAC in same timeframe, and PRC been hammering at commercial aviation seriously long before EUV.
  - bombcar 6mo ago
    That's the key - if it was done once, it can be done again, and likely it's going to be significantly cheaper/easier because it's known it can be done. We see this from olympic records (e.g., the 4 minute mile was a "barrier" until one day it was passed and suddenly a bunch of people passed it). Of course, doing it "legally" is another question - someone in the US trying to replicate would likely run into patent and other issues. But a top-secret Manhattan-style project done by the US or China? definitely doable, and if you add spy-shit in, perhaps even faster.
maxalbarello 6mo ago
i find it hard to believe that there is no equivalent anywhere else in the world. there is so much talent out there and the stakes are so high that it seems like an inevitability. whatever many secrets are involved, information wants to be free and it's hard to believe that others won't figure it out. by the time they do catch up we better be steps ahead. what's after EUV?
- sbarre 6mo ago
  Honestly I thought the same, but after watching a couple of videos on how EUV actually works, and what ASML (and the 1,200 other specialized companies that feed into its supply chain) built.. I can understand why you can't just take one apart and copy it. There's (apparently) 4 decades of accumulated cutting edge scientific research that has gone into these machines. I suspect the machinery, process and human expertise required to simply produce the parts required for these machines is the real moat (oh and I guess the US-led export controls too). The build tolerances for components are incredible. There are 11 primary mirrors in an EUV machine, each one has something like 100 coats of ultra-pure materials that are precisely deposited in picometer-thick layers with tolerances in the nanometers, across a 1-meter wide curved surface. Then you have to position the mirrors perfectly inside the machine, again with tolerances in the nanometers. So even if you know what you need to do, having the equipment and expertise to do it is a different thing. And that's just one part of the 100,000+ parts that make up an EUV machine.
  - nextaccountic 6mo ago
    Maybe copying it is too fragile (but I note that China copied the F-35) But in this case the Chinese will just develop their own alternative, that might work as good or even better
    - sfn42 6mo ago
      Hasn't happened yet.
- Someone 6mo ago
morpheos137 6mo ago
The straregic importance is vastly over hyped. Maybe by people who want to sell chips. Actual physical feature size shrinkage rate has dramatically slowed from maybe a decade ago. making more efficient algorithms or architectures will beat out trying to fight physics.
otterley 6mo ago
That question is discussed in the article. “Retaining the best workers is especially crucial in an area like photolithography, where a huge amount of tacit knowledge is used to assemble its machines. An ASML engineer once told He Rongming, the founder of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment, one of China’s top ASML competitors, that the company wouldn’t be able to replicate ASML’s products even if it had the blueprints. He suggested that ASML’s products reflected ‘decades, if not centuries’ of knowledge and experience. ASML’s Chinese competitors have systematically attempted to hire former ASML engineers, and there is at least one documented case of a former ASML employee unlawfully handing over proprietary information. But none of this appears to have narrowed the gap.”
- thenthenthen 6mo ago
  Apparently China had a prototype EUV source working in 2025 (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh... )
- mytailorisrich 6mo ago
  They are saying trying to exactly copy the machine by poaching employees or spying is impossible because it is too complex. This does not mean that China cannot or will not have something similar at some point, probably sooner than later.
Danox 6mo ago
Japan has restarted their efforts to have something unsure too.

codeulike 6mo ago

"at some point" is doing a lot of work there. How long do you think?

dnnddidiej 6mo ago
30 years

KermitTheFrog 6mo ago

Non-zero chances - yes. Unavoidable - I wouldn't be so sure. I can't imagine how many top human-hours and cutting-edge inventions involved to construct this machine. And much of this simply cannot be stolen or bought, no matter how much money you have.

mytailorisrich 6mo ago
It has never happened in the history of the world that a company or country could maintain its technological advance indefinitely. Either China will catch up on this or that particular technology will become obsolete. But it is certain that they won't stay behind forever (measured in a small number of decades at most).
- codeulike 6mo ago
  Right but if you dont say how long it will take them, youre not really saying anything.
  - mytailorisrich 6mo ago
    > measured in a small number of decades at most
    - codeulike 6mo ago
      By "a small number of decades" do you mean from now, or starting from 15 years ago when the ASML Twinscan NXE:3100 made it debut?
  - adrian_b 6mo ago
    There is no doubt that less than 10 years will be needed for China to be able to do something equivalent to what the ASML machines can do now. What is far less certain is what ASML will be able to do at that time, i.e. if they will be able to progress significantly over the state-of-the-art of today, or they will reach a plateau. Besides China, there is a renewed effort in Japan to become competitive again, so ASML may face in the future both Chinese and Japanese competitors.
  - Danox 6mo ago
    5 years China 5 years Japan 10 years Korea
- wincy 6mo ago
  I mean you’ve definitely just had technology disappear though, usually because of war. Damascus Steel was a lost military tech. We could certainly end up just accidentally (or worse, intentionally) bomb this stuff out of existence so nobody has it.
- dublinstats 6mo ago
  This is kind of like saying you can prove everyone dies based on the evidence that everyone who is not currently alive has died. You might place an upper limit using history but in this case I'd guess that limit would end up being much larger than the present semiconductor industry itself might last.
  - mytailorisrich 6mo ago
    I'd say it is more likely than within 20 years the domestic Chinese semiconductor industry will be state-of-the-art across the full vertical and horizontal range. There is a level of arrogance in the West that China does cheap but simple/low quality whereas this is only a stepping stone along the way. German car manufacturers went into China during the 90s with that mindset, and expecting it was forever, well they don't think that anymore...
maxglute 6mo ago
One can ballpark it, during EUV commercialization, ASML had 15k employees, Zeiss 3k, Cymer 1k. 20 years of non priority commercial development, lots of setbacks. Final integration ~5k suppliers. For reference commercial aviation Boeing/Airbus with as 100k employees, 50k suppliers. And we don't even know it's correct technical roadmap. Initially they thought synchrotron better than plasma/LPP but went with latter because synchrotron too expensive, now EUV machine prices ballooned to multiple synchrotron price. Don't be surprise if we find it dead end non competitive tech in 5-10 years if PRC or JP figures out SSMB/FEL etc, LPP may become economically uncompetitive and all ASML EUV becomes stranded assets. This real possibly because while ASML LPP works, it works at far higher cost than original projections, i.e. it's overbudget techstack with lethal scaling costs. On paper EUV relatively modest undertaking vs commercial aviation, EUV deeper integration vs commercial aviation breadth, but in terms of scale of effort for nation state coordination, EUV probably all things considered, easier to replicate because it has no regulatory slowdown, it's purely host country physics problem. Having enough talent and throwing it at problem x espionage x poaching talent x time will likely solve precision physics problem sooner than later. Vs commercial aviation which has complicated geopolitical/regulatory hurdles and magnitude more suppliers and scale. TLDR EUV has smaller organizational surface area for determined state to pursue through concentrating $$$, talent and effort. You can buy a ex ASML to bootstrap EUV development, much harder to get globe to buy COMAC without decades of airworthiness. There's a reason western analysts predict PRC EUV in 2030s (meanwhile PRC already beat prototype estimate timeline), but probably not realistic for global COMAC in same timeframe, and PRC been hammering at commercial aviation seriously long before EUV.
- bombcar 6mo ago
  That's the key - if it was done once, it can be done again, and likely it's going to be significantly cheaper/easier because it's known it can be done. We see this from olympic records (e.g., the 4 minute mile was a "barrier" until one day it was passed and suddenly a bunch of people passed it). Of course, doing it "legally" is another question - someone in the US trying to replicate would likely run into patent and other issues. But a top-secret Manhattan-style project done by the US or China? definitely doable, and if you add spy-shit in, perhaps even faster.

maxalbarello 6mo ago

i find it hard to believe that there is no equivalent anywhere else in the world. there is so much talent out there and the stakes are so high that it seems like an inevitability. whatever many secrets are involved, information wants to be free and it's hard to believe that others won't figure it out. by the time they do catch up we better be steps ahead. what's after EUV?

sbarre 6mo ago
Honestly I thought the same, but after watching a couple of videos on how EUV actually works, and what ASML (and the 1,200 other specialized companies that feed into its supply chain) built.. I can understand why you can't just take one apart and copy it. There's (apparently) 4 decades of accumulated cutting edge scientific research that has gone into these machines. I suspect the machinery, process and human expertise required to simply produce the parts required for these machines is the real moat (oh and I guess the US-led export controls too). The build tolerances for components are incredible. There are 11 primary mirrors in an EUV machine, each one has something like 100 coats of ultra-pure materials that are precisely deposited in picometer-thick layers with tolerances in the nanometers, across a 1-meter wide curved surface. Then you have to position the mirrors perfectly inside the machine, again with tolerances in the nanometers. So even if you know what you need to do, having the equipment and expertise to do it is a different thing. And that's just one part of the 100,000+ parts that make up an EUV machine.
- nextaccountic 6mo ago
  Maybe copying it is too fragile (but I note that China copied the F-35) But in this case the Chinese will just develop their own alternative, that might work as good or even better
  - sfn42 6mo ago
    Hasn't happened yet.
Someone 6mo ago

morpheos137 6mo ago

The straregic importance is vastly over hyped. Maybe by people who want to sell chips. Actual physical feature size shrinkage rate has dramatically slowed from maybe a decade ago. making more efficient algorithms or architectures will beat out trying to fight physics.

otterley 6mo ago

That question is discussed in the article. “Retaining the best workers is especially crucial in an area like photolithography, where a huge amount of tacit knowledge is used to assemble its machines. An ASML engineer once told He Rongming, the founder of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment, one of China’s top ASML competitors, that the company wouldn’t be able to replicate ASML’s products even if it had the blueprints. He suggested that ASML’s products reflected ‘decades, if not centuries’ of knowledge and experience. ASML’s Chinese competitors have systematically attempted to hire former ASML engineers, and there is at least one documented case of a former ASML employee unlawfully handing over proprietary information. But none of this appears to have narrowed the gap.”

thenthenthen 6mo ago
Apparently China had a prototype EUV source working in 2025 (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh... )
mytailorisrich 6mo ago
They are saying trying to exactly copy the machine by poaching employees or spying is impossible because it is too complex. This does not mean that China cannot or will not have something similar at some point, probably sooner than later.

Danox 6mo ago

Japan has restarted their efforts to have something unsure too.