4 ms·
There's a problem... Population of the US: 349 M, of which 250-300 M use Google services, multiplied by 1605 USD per user = from 401 B USD to 481 B USD, but in
by dotcoma 5mo ago
There's a problem...
Population of the US: 349 M, of which 250-300 M use Google services, multiplied by 1605 USD per user = from 401 B USD to 481 B USD, but in 2025 Alphabet did 403 B in total, from every service, in the whole world.
- hacker_homie 5mo agorevenue vs profit?
- devttyeu 5mo ago403 B is the revenues - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000012/googexhibit991q42025.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426...
- itemize123 5mo agogoogle's the middleman, and it won't capture the whole 1600 right?
- dotcoma 5mo agoNo. They are saying 1605 USD is the average amount Google make from a user in the US.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- amazingamazing 5mo agoPresumably this only counts internet users who use Google.
- dotcoma 5mo agoCorrect. If 250 M people use it in the US out of a population of 349 M, Google would make 401 B USD out of them, vs 403 B USD in worldwide revenues. These numbers do not look right to me.
- amazingamazing 5mo agoIf you’re going to extrapolate you should use the median, which would put it at 200B for USA.
- dotcoma 5mo agoWhy ?
- dathinab 5mo agothat isn't how the median works median is the sample in the middle of the distribution (when it is treated as a sequence of samples ordered by their value), e.g. if you have sort(seq(dist))=[100$, 5$, 5$, 3$, 1$] the median is 5$ average is sum(dist)/size(dist), so avg * size(dist) => sum(dist) in the example above that would be median 5, avg. 22.8, total 114, size 5 if you where to multiple the median by size you would have 25$ for the total value, which is very much very wrong
- amazingamazing 5mo agoTrue, and yet 5 describes each in the set more accurately than 25.
- cebert 5mo agoThere are some people who don’t use Google. I use Duck Duck Go for search. Additionally, with the rise of LLMs I have been using search much less in general.
- dotcoma 5mo agoLet's say 100 M ?
- dathinab 5mo agoand ad blockers also can kill ad revenue in various ways (like by not displaying them, or even if displayed by causing them to not be counted due to not realizing they where displayed or finding irregularities due to which they are classified as bot views). similar anti-fingerprinting tech can kill ad revenue as it makes users non distinguishable from bots (but likely doesn't matter here)
- yieldcrv 5mo agook, and? proton did 54,000 samples of US users and made an average of what advertisers are willing to pay to target, not what they actually did across the whole population and plus this isn’t to inform you, it’s to sell you on another proton honeypot
- dotcoma 5mo agoI think you are right on this point.
- nonameiguess 5mo agoCaveat I'm no expert on Google ads. Never bought one, never plan to, never advertised anything at all on any service. But since I'm capable of doing a basic web search, I found: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/6366577?hl=en https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/6366577?hl=en This is the process for determining which ads get run. The bid is only one of many factors, so as their support document indicates, the price you pay is often quite lower than the bid, which reflects a ceiling rather than a real sale price. https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/2580383?sjid=17468813633836185699-NC https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/2580383?sjid=17... This is their guidance on demographic targeting. Note there is no category allowing you intentionally target children. This doesn't mean advertisers can't figure out some way to do it anyway, but it means Proton can only sample from adults. Presumably, some probably very large number of the people who "use Google services" in your estimate are children, which childstats.gov indicates represent about 22% of all Americans. That makes it more like 195-235M adult users of Google services. https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/2464960 https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/2464960 As indicated here, you don't pay to place an ad. You pay for clicks, so regardless of what you bid and who you target, Google isn't getting revenue for the number of placements you bid on, which is what Proton is sampling here. Presumably of the 250 x 0.78 to 300 x 0.78 million adult users advertisers are placing those $1605 average bids on, quite a bit fewer than 100% actually click on at least one ad.
- dzonga 5mo agonot back of the napkin - but back of the head quick calculations - number seem about right. remember the average 'world' user is about 100x to 500x less valuable than a US user.
- dotcoma 5mo agoSo, the average user from Canada, the UK, Germany, Japan etc is worth 1% of the average US user or less? Do you wear a red baseball cap?
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- dzonga 5mo agolet's not personalize issues. google made about 400bn last year. 200bn of that was from the US alone. now you can estimate how much the UK brought in. & for PPC rates - you can see conversion rates as well. I run an alternative to Google analytics for a niche market so yeah.
- dotcoma 5mo ago1st: no need to personalise, I agree. Sorry about that. 2nd: where did you get the 200 bn USD figure for the US ? 3rd: if we multiply 250 M people (likely Google users in the US out of a population of 349 M) and multiply it by the 1,605 USD that Google is said to make out of an average user in the linked blog post by Proton, we get 401 bn USD, not 200 bn.
- dathinab 5mo agoThis could be explained by the 250-300 M you refer to not matching the same distribution due to 1. this seems to be google ad network specific, not google services per-see 2. the analysis seem to only include users which do in general generate ad revenue, e.g. all AD Block everywhere users are not included in the distribution 3. given the lower bound I assume ad views which have no clear attributable user, and/or users with a very low and irregular amount of views, are not included (e.g. some mostly "offline" people, people mostly using an ad-block but sometimes somewhere still seeing an add, also it's G-Ads, so anyone using only FB, TickTock etc. would not show up I think)
- jsnell 5mo agoThe Google ad network's revenue is 10% of their first party ad revenue. It would be even harder to make the numbers work that way.
- zamadatix 5mo agoThe population of the US is not necessarily the same as the population of Google's users with personalized ad profiles in the US, even though it sometimes feels that way :). E.g. you go from 349,000,000 to 267,000,000 just by removing the under 18s.
- dotcoma 5mo agoWith 250 M users in the US, we’d reach 401 bn, vs 403 bn which were their worldwide revenues in 2025.
- lvales 5mo agoFTA: "One caveat: this analysis estimates advertiser demand for access to a given profile. It does not reflect the exact revenue Google receives from any individual user. What the model reveals is the ceiling, the maximum price the market places on your attention." From this I believe that your problem can be solved. In accounting terms, the 1605USD isn't a flow (e.g., revenue) but rather a stock (e.g., receivable). They've estimated value about how much a profile is worth, which you shouldn't use to draw those conclusions about revenue.