3 ms·

San Francisco, AI capital of the world, is an economic laggard

48 points by 1vuio0pswjnm7 6mo ago

godelski 6mo ago
https://archive.is/xSv3M https://archive.is/xSv3M
mbgerring 6mo ago
Weird, I thought AI was going to create so much economic surplus that we wouldn’t know what to do with it. What happened?
- bloodyplonker22 6mo ago
  Please read the actual article instead of blindly responding to the title.
  - anon84873628 6mo ago
    To be fair, the article hardly says anything more than "the middle class of the city has hollowed out".
  - mbgerring 6mo ago
    I did read it, what do you think I missed? The article very clearly and explicitly made the point that despite huge speculative funding for an influx of AI startups, San Francisco’s economy isn’t doing all that well. Which I can confirm, as a longtime and current San Francisco resident.
  - jibal 6mo ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html > Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that".
- Mistletoe 6mo ago
  Same place it always goes, yachts.
- sonofhans 6mo ago
  It is happening, just as planned and predicted. Last I checked every so-called AI company is swimming in cash, and so are their founders and leaders. You didn’t think the economic surplus would be evenly distributed, did you?
  - pilgrim0 6mo ago
    Swimming in borrowed or imaginary cash without any hope of paying it back in the foreseeable future.
    - refulgentis 6mo ago
      Investors are people who just literally hand you cash, its not imaginary
  - avaer 6mo ago
    Some people said in their manifestos that AI was going to be Open and democratized and would benefit all of humanity. It was 100% a rugpull but charitably not quite 100% predictable.
    - refulgentis 6mo ago
      What people? What do you mean by "open"? By "open" did those people mean "free as in beer"? What does rugpull mean in this context?
      - irjustin 6mo ago
        OpenAI was originally founded on the parent's concepts, but obviously that changed at some point. Currently, Elon is suing Altman because Altman turned it for profit. Oddly, in that Elon is taking the moral road?
        happymellon 6mo ago
        > Oddly, in that Elon is taking the moral road? Holding other people to standards he wouldn't hold himself to? Sounds totally on-brand.
- bigdubs 6mo ago
  Straight into landlord's pockets.
- moonraker 6mo ago
  That's a multi-decade phenomenon based on historical precedents (in the best case scenario). Ultimately, whether that "best case" manifests is dependent on whether SF residents want it badly enough. It's a matter of political will -- residents' Progressive values have to actually align with how they vote and act (over the long-term)
- visarga 6mo ago
  > Weird, I thought AI was going to create so much economic surplus that we wouldn’t know what to do with it. What happened? The surplus is converted in new structure and becomes baseline. Even if a company does not change, their competition does (with AI), and their customers & investors change their values as well. So the structure in which the company exists has changed. That forces everyone to adapt, but most importantly surplus cannot be captured. Everyone is working harder just to stay in place. AI is like internet, Google search and MS office - everyone has them. They provide no competitive advantage, no moat for using them.
compounding_it 6mo ago
How I see SF : I have 200mn dollar worth of shares of an AI company. I’ll buy it from you for 200mn worth of shares of an ad agency. We both would however need to turn these ‘assets’ into cash from banks to buy groceries. The banks don’t rate these very highly. So we are worth maybe 5mn if we consider book value.
boc 6mo ago
Anybody who has tried to rent an apartment in SF in the past 6 months knows that the city is rebounding fast - avg rents are skyrocketing again and there are lines out the door for 1/2bds. People are locked-in to their covid specials that they outgrew, but can't afford to leave. I watched some friends offer to pay 12 months of rent up-front in cash for a place and still got outbid by another offer. I honestly disagree with this article - it seems to be conflating "economic activity" with extremely high-end real estate sales data in certain neighborhoods. The city feels much more alive in the past 12 months than it was previously, and there is a lot more energy and public events. If there's anything specific to complain about, it's that the AI boom has led to the 996+ crowd staying inside and not contributing much to the local scene, but honestly that's probably fine with everyone involved.
- testfrequency 6mo ago
  Every sane and persons with a personality/hobby/soul I know who isn’t rotting away at their job, or a career employee at some south bay company they plan to retire from have all left SF for abroad, SoCal, or NYC. My hunch is the people that are competing for housing are mostly new AI sector transplants, who will do the same thing that has ruined the city to begin with. Do nothing to support the local community, spend all their time in Hayes Valley and Marina, buy a Tesla or Porsche that they can drive on the 280 to San Jose, Monterey, Napa - then return to the city to order doordash before trading crypto until they fall asleep and repeat. I have a few friends who are still stuck in SF and they say the city feels the most soulless and rude it’s ever felt. It’s actually made one of my friends turn to anti-depressants as he’s really struggling. He vents to me a lot about how he doesn’t feel like he can connect or talk to anyone anymore, not even baristas at a coffee shop, because everyone has become so anemic.
  - ah27182 6mo ago
    Interesting that SoCal becomes an option for these people. What’s the draw with that move?
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]
rcpt 6mo ago
Prop 13
Tistron 6mo ago
How does 91 x >1e9 become 600e9? Is it like a bundle discount? "It hosts 91 other AI “unicorns”, private companies worth more than $1bn, collectively valued at a further $600bn."
- johnfn 6mo ago
  Because they are worth more than 1B? If each is worth 7, that's worth 600B? Some are worth plenty more than 7.
immanuwell 6mo ago
[dead]

48 points by 1vuio0pswjnm7 6mo ago

https://archive.is/xSv3M https://archive.is/xSv3M

Weird, I thought AI was going to create so much economic surplus that we wouldn’t know what to do with it. What happened?

bloodyplonker22 6mo ago
Please read the actual article instead of blindly responding to the title.
- anon84873628 6mo ago
  To be fair, the article hardly says anything more than "the middle class of the city has hollowed out".
- mbgerring 6mo ago
  I did read it, what do you think I missed? The article very clearly and explicitly made the point that despite huge speculative funding for an influx of AI startups, San Francisco’s economy isn’t doing all that well. Which I can confirm, as a longtime and current San Francisco resident.
- jibal 6mo ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html > Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that".
Mistletoe 6mo ago
Same place it always goes, yachts.
sonofhans 6mo ago
It is happening, just as planned and predicted. Last I checked every so-called AI company is swimming in cash, and so are their founders and leaders. You didn’t think the economic surplus would be evenly distributed, did you?
- pilgrim0 6mo ago
  Swimming in borrowed or imaginary cash without any hope of paying it back in the foreseeable future.
  - refulgentis 6mo ago
    Investors are people who just literally hand you cash, its not imaginary
- avaer 6mo ago
  Some people said in their manifestos that AI was going to be Open and democratized and would benefit all of humanity. It was 100% a rugpull but charitably not quite 100% predictable.
  - refulgentis 6mo ago
    What people? What do you mean by "open"? By "open" did those people mean "free as in beer"? What does rugpull mean in this context?
    - irjustin 6mo ago
      OpenAI was originally founded on the parent's concepts, but obviously that changed at some point. Currently, Elon is suing Altman because Altman turned it for profit. Oddly, in that Elon is taking the moral road?
      - happymellon 6mo ago
        > Oddly, in that Elon is taking the moral road? Holding other people to standards he wouldn't hold himself to? Sounds totally on-brand.
bigdubs 6mo ago
Straight into landlord's pockets.
moonraker 6mo ago
That's a multi-decade phenomenon based on historical precedents (in the best case scenario). Ultimately, whether that "best case" manifests is dependent on whether SF residents want it badly enough. It's a matter of political will -- residents' Progressive values have to actually align with how they vote and act (over the long-term)
visarga 6mo ago
> Weird, I thought AI was going to create so much economic surplus that we wouldn’t know what to do with it. What happened? The surplus is converted in new structure and becomes baseline. Even if a company does not change, their competition does (with AI), and their customers & investors change their values as well. So the structure in which the company exists has changed. That forces everyone to adapt, but most importantly surplus cannot be captured. Everyone is working harder just to stay in place. AI is like internet, Google search and MS office - everyone has them. They provide no competitive advantage, no moat for using them.

compounding_it 6mo ago

How I see SF : I have 200mn dollar worth of shares of an AI company. I’ll buy it from you for 200mn worth of shares of an ad agency. We both would however need to turn these ‘assets’ into cash from banks to buy groceries. The banks don’t rate these very highly. So we are worth maybe 5mn if we consider book value.

boc 6mo ago

Anybody who has tried to rent an apartment in SF in the past 6 months knows that the city is rebounding fast - avg rents are skyrocketing again and there are lines out the door for 1/2bds. People are locked-in to their covid specials that they outgrew, but can't afford to leave. I watched some friends offer to pay 12 months of rent up-front in cash for a place and still got outbid by another offer. I honestly disagree with this article - it seems to be conflating "economic activity" with extremely high-end real estate sales data in certain neighborhoods. The city feels much more alive in the past 12 months than it was previously, and there is a lot more energy and public events. If there's anything specific to complain about, it's that the AI boom has led to the 996+ crowd staying inside and not contributing much to the local scene, but honestly that's probably fine with everyone involved.

testfrequency 6mo ago
Every sane and persons with a personality/hobby/soul I know who isn’t rotting away at their job, or a career employee at some south bay company they plan to retire from have all left SF for abroad, SoCal, or NYC. My hunch is the people that are competing for housing are mostly new AI sector transplants, who will do the same thing that has ruined the city to begin with. Do nothing to support the local community, spend all their time in Hayes Valley and Marina, buy a Tesla or Porsche that they can drive on the 280 to San Jose, Monterey, Napa - then return to the city to order doordash before trading crypto until they fall asleep and repeat. I have a few friends who are still stuck in SF and they say the city feels the most soulless and rude it’s ever felt. It’s actually made one of my friends turn to anti-depressants as he’s really struggling. He vents to me a lot about how he doesn’t feel like he can connect or talk to anyone anymore, not even baristas at a coffee shop, because everyone has become so anemic.
- ah27182 6mo ago
  Interesting that SoCal becomes an option for these people. What’s the draw with that move?
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]

rcpt 6mo ago

Prop 13

Tistron 6mo ago

How does 91 x >1e9 become 600e9? Is it like a bundle discount? "It hosts 91 other AI “unicorns”, private companies worth more than $1bn, collectively valued at a further $600bn."

johnfn 6mo ago
Because they are worth more than 1B? If each is worth 7, that's worth 600B? Some are worth plenty more than 7.

immanuwell 6mo ago

[dead]