4 ms·
I think MS wants OpenAI to fail so it can absorb it
by guluarte 6mo ago
I think MS wants OpenAI to fail so it can absorb it
- Oras 6mo agoMS put 10B for 50% if I remember correctly. OpenAI is worth many multiples of that.
- bmitc 6mo ago> OpenAI is worth many multiples of that. How?
- senordevnyc 6mo agoBecause they recently issued shares at a price many multiples of that, and people bought them. How else would you define financial worth?
- andriy_koval 6mo agoI would use your number adjusted by some demand elasticity curve.
- tanseydavid 6mo agoThe "back-of-the-napkin" only has enough room to estimate based on recently issued share price. Seems reasonable to me.
- andriy_koval 6mo agoSure, for napkin level math you can go with this, and multiply by some simple multiplier, I like 70%.
- bmitc 6mo agoDoes speculation equal worth?
- marricks 6mo ago> OpenAI is worth many multiples of that valued at --which I'd say is a reasonable distinction to make right about now
- Oras 6mo agoTheir revenue is 20B, so they still worth multiples of 10B regardless of valuation even if you consider the basic 5x revenue valuation https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-revenue-crosses-20-billion-2025-2026-01-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-...
- Dylan16807 6mo ago"The basic 5x revenue valuation" doesn't work for businesses that aren't profitable.
- nimchimpsky 6mo ago[dead]
- 3eb7988a1663 6mo agoIt is also unclear to me how much real debt they carry. They have famously been signing many deals: RAM, datacenters, maybe nuclear power plants -I no longer know what is a joke or not. They must be carrying hundreds of billions in paper debt obligations, which is tough to payback at $20B revenue.
- sethops1 6mo agoI'm giddy about reading their S1 in the near future. We're about to have another "We What the Fuck" moment.
- cheema33 6mo ago> Their revenue is 20B, so they still worth multiples of 10B regardless of valuation... I can easily generate double that revenue, by selling $20 bills for $10.
- HWR_14 6mo agoWhen they put 10B in, they got weird tiered revenue shares and other rights. That has been simplified to 27% of OpenAI today. I don't know what that meant their 10B would be worth before dilution in later rounds.