6 ms·

Since this is relevant to many HN comments, copy-pasted the charges from the pdf indictment in the linked page: Count 1 - Unlawful Use of Confidential Governme

by sigmar 6mo ago

Since this is relevant to many HN comments, copy-pasted the charges from the pdf indictment in the linked page: Count 1 - Unlawful Use of Confidential Government Information for Personal Gain Count 2 - Theft of Nonpublic Government Information Count 3 - Commodities Fraud Count 4 - Wire Fraud Count 5 - Engaging in a Monetary Transaction in Property Derived from Specified Unlawful Activity

jcgrillo 6mo ago
It's interesting they don't think they can get him for leaking classified information. To me that seems like the biggest issue--I mean sure, it's bad he made money on it, but it would have been really bad if he'd gotten someone killed by blabbing to the internet.
- enoint 6mo ago
  If that happened, could they retroactively classify it?
  - jcgrillo 6mo ago
    Maybe I'm making an incorrect assumption, but I assumed the information was already classified. He was betting on an outcome of a planned military operation based on his knowledge of those plans. My assumption is that information is super closely guarded, and likely classified at a high level. Telegraphing your invasion plans is generally not something you do unless you want disaster, right?
    - enoint 6mo ago
      Yeah the DoJ proclaims, “Our Office will continue to hold accountable those who misuse confidential or classified information in a way that undermines and exploits our national security.” But isn’t wire fraud harder to prove than leaking classified facts?
      - jcgrillo 6mo ago
        It seems strange, but that must be why I'm not a lawyer :p
      - bostik 6mo ago
        Unless the prosecution can prove that the trades meaningfully moved the market prices, it's probably going to be really hard to use the term "leaking". I can't shake the feeling that there may be political reasons to not even attempt that angle. What legal precedent would it set if a judge actually ruled on that and the prosecution won? Which entities within the government would be financially inconvenienced?
        burningChrome 6mo ago
        So in prediction markets I've heard a lot of times people will collaborate in order to make certain predictions pay off higher sums by having more people put money on a certain bet. Is it true with these markets the more people bet on a specific day and time, the value will increase more, increasing the overall payout? If that is true, I wonder if they're looking at anybody else helping place the bets or a group of people trying to wager a higher amount of money to increase the return?
        floam 6mo ago
        Well yes. Someone has the other side of the bet, and it’s not 1:1 long:short. That’s how folks could hypothetically hire somebody to kill me, by putting $5M on “floam will survive the month” - if I’m not killed conspirators get their money back, with interest. But if I am verifiably dead, whoever knew in advance a hit man will kill me, that man gets paid.
        bostik 6mo ago
        It's a bit more nuanced than that, because we're not talking about outright market manipulation. Absent any other information, the market makers always assume that they might be trading against a better informed counterparty - so absent any other signal, the prices at which executions happen are themselves a signal. Think about it: you have N market makers offering both sides of the trade with a spread between them. When there is no other meaningful activity, the best prices are more or less stable. Now someone comes in and buys one side of the trade. Each marker maker will, individually, make the same two decisions: 1. "If you bought at that price, I should raise my price and charge you more" 2. "Since you bought at that price, I must assume you have more information and I should get out the way to avoid an expensive mistake" The magnitude of the decisions made depends on various factors, but as a short-hand the size of the made trades in respect to the overall liquidity available near the midpoint directs how strongly the market makers react. A tiny trickle of insignificant trades does not move the price in any meaningful way (unless the sizes are so small that the execution commission starts to make a difference). A sustained directional flood of trades will cause the midpoint (and volume) to move to the direction where the market makers can sell at higher prices and avoid accumulating any further losses.
- testing22321 6mo ago
  You’re just seeing, clearly, the priorities of the US. Is it helping sick citizens? No. Is it feeding the hungry? No. Free education, housing the un housed or protecting the environment? No, no , no. To be perfectly clear, it’s not giving vets the benefits they deserve or keeping soldiers safe either. Money. The priority is money. Getting it. And making sure those that don’t have it don’t get it.
  - jaredwiener 6mo ago
    The government is very big. They can have multiple priorities. The Dept of Justice does not provide medical care, education, or anything else you listed -- they prosecute crimes. And using classified military plans for personal gain while potentially putting fellow soldiers at risk seems like a crime that is worth prosecuting.
  - jcgrillo 6mo ago
    God money's not looking for the cure God money's not concerned about the sick among the pure God money, let's go dancing on the backs of the bruised God money's not one to choose No, you can't take it No, you can't take it No, you can't take that away from me
- notepad0x90 6mo ago
  did he leak the information, or just speculate on it? is it leaking classified info when pentagon officials order lots of pizza and thus inform the world that a military operation is being planned?
  - selcuka 6mo ago
    "A military operation is being planned" is very different from "Maduro will be kidnapped in the next x hours". "Pentagon planning a military operation" is not exactly classified information as it is safe to assume that Pentagon is always planning a military operation.
    - jcgrillo 6mo ago
      Yes, it seems in this case an adversary who was paying attention could have learned something very, very valuable.
      - selcuka 6mo ago
        Yes. Especially if the casino (or "prediction market") has access to the identities of players via id verification, fingerprinting, or other means.
        rapidaneurism 6mo ago
        You mean any non crypto payment system? :)
        JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
        Going to guess that anyone in the U.S. military has their crypto wallet aggresively profiled by various spy agencies.
        jcgrillo 6mo ago
        And literally every other thing they do on the internet.. remember that Strava shit? You have relatively technically unsophisticated people with high level access and not a lot of adult supervision. That seems like a juicy target. I assume there are a lot of well funded and staffed outifts around the world who have noticed the same thing.
- morsch 6mo ago
  Well, a lot of people got killed this way, too.
  - jcgrillo 6mo ago
    But from the perspective of the US DoJ the right people got killed (assuming of course they've determined the operation was legal according to their own rules, e.g. US law). The issue here is this guy telegraphed operational plans to the entire world which could have gotten (from the DoJ's perspective) the wrong people killed.
JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
Why would this be civilian versus the business of a JAG?
- Tangurena2 6mo ago
  Because the JAG gets to prosecute stuff that violates the Uniform Code of Military Justice. That is their jurisdiction. They don't have the authority to prosecute state crimes, nor what naughty stuff you did at Disney.
SlightlyLeftPad 6mo ago
Huh that’s interesting. The sycophants in DC seem to be able to do everything listed here with no repercussions.
- JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
  > sycophants in DC Who? Because if you have evidence of military secrets being leaked through prediction markets, we actually need that journalistic record maintained.
  - remus 6mo ago
    I don't think the parent mentioned military secrets in particular? But the insider trading is already well documented e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cge0grppe3po https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cge0grppe3po
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
    - JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
      > the insider trading The suspect hasn't been charged with insider trading. (OP said those "in DC seem to be able to do everything listed.")
      - AlecSchueler 6mo ago
        > The suspect hasn't been charged with insider trading. I think that was the point GP was making.
    - varjag 6mo ago
      Pretty sure Count 1 through 5 above cover insider trading by administration officials too.
      - bandrami 6mo ago
nixass 6mo ago
> Count 5 - Engaging in a Monetary Transaction in Property Derived from Specified Unlawful Activity For a moment there I read this as the unlawful activity was Maduro's arrest, and someone made money on that fact.
- sigmoid10 6mo ago
  Well, the supreme court has already given Trump full immunity for things like this, so they could easily label it a crime and start charging anyone involved they don't like. What you described sounds hilarious and crazy right now, but I fully expect something like this to happen eventually while the US further descends into fascism.
- potatototoo99 6mo ago
  Maduro's kidnapping was unlawful.
  - voidUpdate 6mo ago
    Most kidnappings are...
  - nixass 6mo ago
    Forgot the /s
  - lyu07282 6mo ago
    As an aside, I thought the BBC telling it's "journalists" not to call it a kidnapping was the most hilarious thing to come from this: https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2026/01/05/bbc-maduro-venezuela/ https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2026/01/05/bbc-maduro-v... > “Kidnapping” is an uncomfortable word. It suggests force, illegality and wrongdoing. “Captured” sounds more respectable. It belongs to the language of war. “Seized” sounds calmer still — almost administrative, like someone found it on a supermarket shelf.
    - gosub100 6mo ago
      Reminds me of the far left calling rioting "unrest" when it's their guys doing the damage.
eunos 6mo ago
> Count 4 - Wire Fraud I almost always see this charge. Seems too strong as law
- nashashmi 6mo ago
  Wire fraud is simply the crime of committing a crime over wire. It just always doubles the counts and intensifies the punishment. Same goes for Count 5.
  - blitzar 6mo ago
    Wire fraud turns a state case into a federal case.
- conover 6mo ago
  Yeah. And the penalties for wire fraud are steep. Up to 20 years in prison and $250k fine _per_ count.
nashashmi 6mo ago
Count 3, how is this a commodity? Count 1, 4, and 5 are the crime of committing a crime. Crime 1 is commiting a crime for personal reasons. 4 is commiting a crime over the wire. 5 is commiting a crime using money. The only real crime is Count 2: Theft of info.
- LeonardoTolstoy 6mo ago
  I feel like if you followed the NBA scandal involving Chauncey Billups the wire fraud charge for insider prediction market trading was inevitable. Damon Jones didn't work for the NBA and basically just told some people the status of an injury to LeBron because he hangs out with him (in exchange for money). His crime I guess is gambling illegally? But wire fraud (I think they even say "creating a fraudulent market") was thrown in there. Seemed inevitable they were going to start charging prediction market insiders the same way.
- SOTGO 6mo ago
  For count 3, the prediction markets consider the "bets" to actually be futures contracts, and futures contracts are regulated together with commodities (in the U.S. by the CFTC). There is ongoing litigation about whether this is the proper designation, but that is the U.S. government's position. Insider trading rules are more lax for futures than other products, but I believe this case likely does violate existing rules.

by sigmar 6mo ago

jcgrillo 6mo ago

It's interesting they don't think they can get him for leaking classified information. To me that seems like the biggest issue--I mean sure, it's bad he made money on it, but it would have been really bad if he'd gotten someone killed by blabbing to the internet.

enoint 6mo ago
If that happened, could they retroactively classify it?
- jcgrillo 6mo ago
  Maybe I'm making an incorrect assumption, but I assumed the information was already classified. He was betting on an outcome of a planned military operation based on his knowledge of those plans. My assumption is that information is super closely guarded, and likely classified at a high level. Telegraphing your invasion plans is generally not something you do unless you want disaster, right?
  - enoint 6mo ago
    Yeah the DoJ proclaims, “Our Office will continue to hold accountable those who misuse confidential or classified information in a way that undermines and exploits our national security.” But isn’t wire fraud harder to prove than leaking classified facts?
    - jcgrillo 6mo ago
      It seems strange, but that must be why I'm not a lawyer :p
    - bostik 6mo ago
      Unless the prosecution can prove that the trades meaningfully moved the market prices, it's probably going to be really hard to use the term "leaking". I can't shake the feeling that there may be political reasons to not even attempt that angle. What legal precedent would it set if a judge actually ruled on that and the prosecution won? Which entities within the government would be financially inconvenienced?
      - burningChrome 6mo ago
        So in prediction markets I've heard a lot of times people will collaborate in order to make certain predictions pay off higher sums by having more people put money on a certain bet. Is it true with these markets the more people bet on a specific day and time, the value will increase more, increasing the overall payout? If that is true, I wonder if they're looking at anybody else helping place the bets or a group of people trying to wager a higher amount of money to increase the return?
        floam 6mo ago
        Well yes. Someone has the other side of the bet, and it’s not 1:1 long:short. That’s how folks could hypothetically hire somebody to kill me, by putting $5M on “floam will survive the month” - if I’m not killed conspirators get their money back, with interest. But if I am verifiably dead, whoever knew in advance a hit man will kill me, that man gets paid.
        bostik 6mo ago
        It's a bit more nuanced than that, because we're not talking about outright market manipulation. Absent any other information, the market makers always assume that they might be trading against a better informed counterparty - so absent any other signal, the prices at which executions happen are themselves a signal. Think about it: you have N market makers offering both sides of the trade with a spread between them. When there is no other meaningful activity, the best prices are more or less stable. Now someone comes in and buys one side of the trade. Each marker maker will, individually, make the same two decisions: 1. "If you bought at that price, I should raise my price and charge you more" 2. "Since you bought at that price, I must assume you have more information and I should get out the way to avoid an expensive mistake" The magnitude of the decisions made depends on various factors, but as a short-hand the size of the made trades in respect to the overall liquidity available near the midpoint directs how strongly the market makers react. A tiny trickle of insignificant trades does not move the price in any meaningful way (unless the sizes are so small that the execution commission starts to make a difference). A sustained directional flood of trades will cause the midpoint (and volume) to move to the direction where the market makers can sell at higher prices and avoid accumulating any further losses.
testing22321 6mo ago
You’re just seeing, clearly, the priorities of the US. Is it helping sick citizens? No. Is it feeding the hungry? No. Free education, housing the un housed or protecting the environment? No, no , no. To be perfectly clear, it’s not giving vets the benefits they deserve or keeping soldiers safe either. Money. The priority is money. Getting it. And making sure those that don’t have it don’t get it.
- jaredwiener 6mo ago
  The government is very big. They can have multiple priorities. The Dept of Justice does not provide medical care, education, or anything else you listed -- they prosecute crimes. And using classified military plans for personal gain while potentially putting fellow soldiers at risk seems like a crime that is worth prosecuting.
- jcgrillo 6mo ago
  God money's not looking for the cure God money's not concerned about the sick among the pure God money, let's go dancing on the backs of the bruised God money's not one to choose No, you can't take it No, you can't take it No, you can't take that away from me
notepad0x90 6mo ago
did he leak the information, or just speculate on it? is it leaking classified info when pentagon officials order lots of pizza and thus inform the world that a military operation is being planned?
- selcuka 6mo ago
  "A military operation is being planned" is very different from "Maduro will be kidnapped in the next x hours". "Pentagon planning a military operation" is not exactly classified information as it is safe to assume that Pentagon is always planning a military operation.
  - jcgrillo 6mo ago
    Yes, it seems in this case an adversary who was paying attention could have learned something very, very valuable.
    - selcuka 6mo ago
      Yes. Especially if the casino (or "prediction market") has access to the identities of players via id verification, fingerprinting, or other means.
      - rapidaneurism 6mo ago
        You mean any non crypto payment system? :)
        JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
        Going to guess that anyone in the U.S. military has their crypto wallet aggresively profiled by various spy agencies.
        jcgrillo 6mo ago
        And literally every other thing they do on the internet.. remember that Strava shit? You have relatively technically unsophisticated people with high level access and not a lot of adult supervision. That seems like a juicy target. I assume there are a lot of well funded and staffed outifts around the world who have noticed the same thing.
morsch 6mo ago
Well, a lot of people got killed this way, too.
- jcgrillo 6mo ago
  But from the perspective of the US DoJ the right people got killed (assuming of course they've determined the operation was legal according to their own rules, e.g. US law). The issue here is this guy telegraphed operational plans to the entire world which could have gotten (from the DoJ's perspective) the wrong people killed.

JumpCrisscross 6mo ago

Why would this be civilian versus the business of a JAG?

Tangurena2 6mo ago
Because the JAG gets to prosecute stuff that violates the Uniform Code of Military Justice. That is their jurisdiction. They don't have the authority to prosecute state crimes, nor what naughty stuff you did at Disney.

SlightlyLeftPad 6mo ago

Huh that’s interesting. The sycophants in DC seem to be able to do everything listed here with no repercussions.

JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
> sycophants in DC Who? Because if you have evidence of military secrets being leaked through prediction markets, we actually need that journalistic record maintained.
- remus 6mo ago
  I don't think the parent mentioned military secrets in particular? But the insider trading is already well documented e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cge0grppe3po https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cge0grppe3po
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
  - JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
    > the insider trading The suspect hasn't been charged with insider trading. (OP said those "in DC seem to be able to do everything listed.")
    - AlecSchueler 6mo ago
      > The suspect hasn't been charged with insider trading. I think that was the point GP was making.
  - varjag 6mo ago
    Pretty sure Count 1 through 5 above cover insider trading by administration officials too.
    - bandrami 6mo ago

nixass 6mo ago

> Count 5 - Engaging in a Monetary Transaction in Property Derived from Specified Unlawful Activity For a moment there I read this as the unlawful activity was Maduro's arrest, and someone made money on that fact.

sigmoid10 6mo ago
Well, the supreme court has already given Trump full immunity for things like this, so they could easily label it a crime and start charging anyone involved they don't like. What you described sounds hilarious and crazy right now, but I fully expect something like this to happen eventually while the US further descends into fascism.
potatototoo99 6mo ago
Maduro's kidnapping was unlawful.
- voidUpdate 6mo ago
  Most kidnappings are...
- nixass 6mo ago
  Forgot the /s
- lyu07282 6mo ago
  As an aside, I thought the BBC telling it's "journalists" not to call it a kidnapping was the most hilarious thing to come from this: https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2026/01/05/bbc-maduro-venezuela/ https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2026/01/05/bbc-maduro-v... > “Kidnapping” is an uncomfortable word. It suggests force, illegality and wrongdoing. “Captured” sounds more respectable. It belongs to the language of war. “Seized” sounds calmer still — almost administrative, like someone found it on a supermarket shelf.
  - gosub100 6mo ago
    Reminds me of the far left calling rioting "unrest" when it's their guys doing the damage.

eunos 6mo ago

> Count 4 - Wire Fraud I almost always see this charge. Seems too strong as law

nashashmi 6mo ago
Wire fraud is simply the crime of committing a crime over wire. It just always doubles the counts and intensifies the punishment. Same goes for Count 5.
- blitzar 6mo ago
  Wire fraud turns a state case into a federal case.
conover 6mo ago
Yeah. And the penalties for wire fraud are steep. Up to 20 years in prison and $250k fine _per_ count.

nashashmi 6mo ago

Count 3, how is this a commodity? Count 1, 4, and 5 are the crime of committing a crime. Crime 1 is commiting a crime for personal reasons. 4 is commiting a crime over the wire. 5 is commiting a crime using money. The only real crime is Count 2: Theft of info.

LeonardoTolstoy 6mo ago
I feel like if you followed the NBA scandal involving Chauncey Billups the wire fraud charge for insider prediction market trading was inevitable. Damon Jones didn't work for the NBA and basically just told some people the status of an injury to LeBron because he hangs out with him (in exchange for money). His crime I guess is gambling illegally? But wire fraud (I think they even say "creating a fraudulent market") was thrown in there. Seemed inevitable they were going to start charging prediction market insiders the same way.
SOTGO 6mo ago
For count 3, the prediction markets consider the "bets" to actually be futures contracts, and futures contracts are regulated together with commodities (in the U.S. by the CFTC). There is ongoing litigation about whether this is the proper designation, but that is the U.S. government's position. Insider trading rules are more lax for futures than other products, but I believe this case likely does violate existing rules.