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Totally. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that if I had to pick a FAANG to put all my retirement savings into Meta would absolutely not be my pick. Heck, if I

by Rapzid 6mo ago

Totally. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that if I had to pick a FAANG to put all my retirement savings into Meta would absolutely not be my pick. Heck, if I was forced to either short or invest Meta with all my retirement savings now betting on it's value in 25 years.. I'd short it.

dron57 6mo ago
Meta is going to have higher ads revenue than Google this year.
- torginus 6mo ago
  Social media is an extremely competitive landscape, with competitors rising overnight. Google, Apple and Microsoft dominate the world with their products and platforms. Facebook & WhatsApp certainly doesnt.
  - John23832 6mo ago
    > Social media is an extremely competitive landscape, with competitors rising overnight. This is not true at all. There are two players. FB/Instagram and TikTok. Using one does not preclude using the other. Other than tiktok, who was the last new player in social? > Google, Apple and Microsoft dominate the world with their products and platforms. Facebook & WhatsApp certainly doesnt. Whole countries literally run on WhatsApp.
    - torginus 6mo ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_popular_social_platforms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_popular_social_pl... There are all kinds of social media, its segmented by userbase, and culture/geography. Telegram has 1B users (which is surprising to me, I thought it was an ex-Soviet thing), and there are entire geographic strongholds, such as Russia and China. Russia and China still use iPhones and Windows, but entirely skipped out on Facebook and Whatsapp.
      - lmm 6mo ago
        > There are all kinds of social media, its segmented by userbase, and culture/geography. Your own link has Meta with 3 of the top 4 platforms. Can you really see any of the competitors overtaking them in even the medium term? > Russia and China still use iPhones and Windows, but entirely skipped out on Facebook and Whatsapp. China doesn't use Google either, and while they might use Windows they're staying off Azure which is where Microsoft's main business is these days. Yes there are countries which stay off Meta. But they are just as embedded in the workings of the world as any of the companies you mentioned, probably more so. Government decisions are made by people using a mix of Apple, Google and Microsoft hardware - but all of them are communicating over WhatsApp.
      - aworks 6mo ago
        3B Facebook users! And for all the scorn it gets on HN, Facebook still works for some of my use cases: high school friends, low-contact relatives, obscure geography groups, the Philippines.
    - tshaddox 6mo ago
      You don’t consider YouTube to be social media?
    - drivebyhooting 6mo ago
      I wish WhatsApp would get nationalized. I absolutely hate having to use it.
  - canes123456 6mo ago
    That has been the talking point since facebook launched.
- alex1138 6mo ago
  I'm convinced all of Meta is fraud though so that's not surprising
- Rapzid 6mo ago
  It's not diversified enough IMHO compared to those other companies. That makes its market cap fragile and vulnerable to disruption.
loeg 6mo ago
If you try and hold a short position for 25 years, you will lose all your money, even if you were right.
- seattle_spring 6mo ago
  I'm convinced that 99.9% of folks online who claim they're going to "short a stock" have never actually shorted anything in their life.
rvz 6mo ago
> Heck, if I was forced to either short or invest Meta with all my retirement savings now betting on it's value in 25 years.. I'd short it. Not a good idea. Meta has hundreds of leavers to find more profits from anywhere.
matwood 6mo ago
> Heck, if I was forced to either short or invest Meta with all my retirement savings now betting on it's value in 25 years.. I'd short it. Short of social media being classified as something like alcohol or cigarettes, you will lose money on this trade. You’re betting against ingrained human nature.

by Rapzid 6mo ago

dron57 6mo ago

Meta is going to have higher ads revenue than Google this year.

torginus 6mo ago
Social media is an extremely competitive landscape, with competitors rising overnight. Google, Apple and Microsoft dominate the world with their products and platforms. Facebook & WhatsApp certainly doesnt.
- John23832 6mo ago
  > Social media is an extremely competitive landscape, with competitors rising overnight. This is not true at all. There are two players. FB/Instagram and TikTok. Using one does not preclude using the other. Other than tiktok, who was the last new player in social? > Google, Apple and Microsoft dominate the world with their products and platforms. Facebook & WhatsApp certainly doesnt. Whole countries literally run on WhatsApp.
  - torginus 6mo ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_popular_social_platforms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_popular_social_pl... There are all kinds of social media, its segmented by userbase, and culture/geography. Telegram has 1B users (which is surprising to me, I thought it was an ex-Soviet thing), and there are entire geographic strongholds, such as Russia and China. Russia and China still use iPhones and Windows, but entirely skipped out on Facebook and Whatsapp.
    - lmm 6mo ago
      > There are all kinds of social media, its segmented by userbase, and culture/geography. Your own link has Meta with 3 of the top 4 platforms. Can you really see any of the competitors overtaking them in even the medium term? > Russia and China still use iPhones and Windows, but entirely skipped out on Facebook and Whatsapp. China doesn't use Google either, and while they might use Windows they're staying off Azure which is where Microsoft's main business is these days. Yes there are countries which stay off Meta. But they are just as embedded in the workings of the world as any of the companies you mentioned, probably more so. Government decisions are made by people using a mix of Apple, Google and Microsoft hardware - but all of them are communicating over WhatsApp.
    - aworks 6mo ago
      3B Facebook users! And for all the scorn it gets on HN, Facebook still works for some of my use cases: high school friends, low-contact relatives, obscure geography groups, the Philippines.
  - tshaddox 6mo ago
    You don’t consider YouTube to be social media?
  - drivebyhooting 6mo ago
    I wish WhatsApp would get nationalized. I absolutely hate having to use it.
- canes123456 6mo ago
  That has been the talking point since facebook launched.
alex1138 6mo ago
I'm convinced all of Meta is fraud though so that's not surprising
Rapzid 6mo ago
It's not diversified enough IMHO compared to those other companies. That makes its market cap fragile and vulnerable to disruption.

loeg 6mo ago

If you try and hold a short position for 25 years, you will lose all your money, even if you were right.

seattle_spring 6mo ago
I'm convinced that 99.9% of folks online who claim they're going to "short a stock" have never actually shorted anything in their life.

rvz 6mo ago

> Heck, if I was forced to either short or invest Meta with all my retirement savings now betting on it's value in 25 years.. I'd short it. Not a good idea. Meta has hundreds of leavers to find more profits from anywhere.

matwood 6mo ago

> Heck, if I was forced to either short or invest Meta with all my retirement savings now betting on it's value in 25 years.. I'd short it. Short of social media being classified as something like alcohol or cigarettes, you will lose money on this trade. You’re betting against ingrained human nature.